EU energy-crisis concerns over Ukraine corridor ‘manageable’

European fears of further energy-crisis woes that could result from the nearing end of a five-year pipeline gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow for Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine, appear to be manageable, as long as a series of specific measures are implemented, most EU ministers responsible for energy agreed at an Energy Council in Brussels yesterday.

The bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires at the beginning of 2025. Ukraine has declared it does not intend to renew this agreement.

Further energy-crisis concerns as a consequence of this agreement’s conclusion, expected to reduce the EU’s total gas imports by 5 percent, can be prevented if EU member states speed up their development of roughly 20 LNG facilities planned from Europe’s north to south; renewable energy investments gain further momentum; energy-savings measures are continued; natural gas consumption reductions continue at the current rate; and LNG imports are increased to make up for reduced Russian gas imports, energy ministers of most EU member states agreed at the Brussels meeting.

Last year, approximately 14 bcm of Russian gas was transported through the Ukrainian corridor to countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Numerous EU member states achieved renewable energy production all-time highs last year. In Portugal, renewables covered 61 percent of the country’s energy needs in 2023. RES coverage of Greece’s energy needs reached 57 percent. In Germany, RES units met 52 percent of the country’s energy needs, while in Belgium the figure reached over 30 percent.

Gas amounts channeled north on decline, projects in doubt

Market interest for further development of European gas infrastructure appears to be weakening, raising concerns about the success of forthcoming trans-Balkan market tests aimed at increasing regional network capacity, sources have underlined.

Although the level of interest for further development of gas infrastructure in Greece and the wider region was considerable in non-binding phases of market tests, potential users are now holding back as the procedure’s binding phases approach.

This essentially means that market players are avoiding making long-term commitments, which is necessary in order for the network expansion and upgrade plans to proceed.

Gas-order cancellations from Greece to markets further north are being recorded, which, if continued, will cast doubts over gas network expansion plans, or even make them unnecessary, sources told energypress.

A similar trend has taken hold at Greek gas grid operator DESFA’s LNG terminal on the islet Revythoussa, just off Athens, as market players are cancelling LNG shipments because they have nowhere to channel gas quantities.

Though there is still plenty of time ahead before binding bids are submitted to trans-Balkan market tests, whose results will offer a clear-cut picture of the situation, the level of interest being recorded by operators preparing project proposals is well below that expressed in non-binding market tests. The Greek-Bulgarian IGB gas pipeline, now being gauged for a capacity boost, is one such example.

Gas consumption levels are on a downward trajectory and gas storage facilities in the EU are at high levels for this time of the year, averaging 68.61 percent full.

It is still too early to draw definite conclusions, but latest data is showing a change of scene. It remains to be seen how this shift could influence the investment plans of operators.

LNG demand in trucking, industrial sectors to rise in ’24

LNG demand in the trucking and industrial sectors, through gas grid operator DESFA’s LNG truck-loading service, enabling refueling of consumption points situated at a distance from the country’s gas network, appears set to rise in 2024, energypress sources have informed.

An increasing interest by market players for more time slots at DESFA’s truck-loading infrastructure, maintained by the operator at its Revythoussa terminal to load tankers, serves as a definite sign of the anticipated rise in LNG demand.

DESFA’s truck-loading infrastructure was launched in October 2022, while a first operational test took place in March, 2022. Three companies, Blue Grid, DEPA Commercial, and Motor Oil Hellas, took part in the testing with LNG trucks. The service has since been operating without issues and offers potential to serve a larger capacity.

Two industrial producers, Fthiotis Papermill, in central Greece, and dairy company Kolios, in Kilkis, northern Greece, have completed developing LNG storage and gasification facilities that are expected to begin operating in March.

At least ten more industrial producers appear interested in following suit by the end of 2024, sources have informed.

LNG appears set to play a bigger role in the heavy-transportation sector, the majority of cargo transfers planned for export to North Macedonia and Bulgaria.

Four refueling stations being prepared by Blue Grid in Athens, Thessaloniki, Patras and Ioannina will help broaden the LNG truck-loading market. The first two of these four stations – in Thriasio, on Athens’ western outskirts, a collaboration with Elin, and in Thessaloniki’s Sindos area, a collaboration with Kolokithas Fuels, are planned to be ready early April.

LNG usage by trucks promises operating cost savings of as much as 30 percent and significantly improved performance in terms of environmental impact.

Gas demand slump prompting LNG shipment cancellations

A significant decline in natural gas demand has prompted a number of gas companies to cancel shipments planned for the Revythoussa LNG terminal on the islet just off Athens, a complete contrast to the frenzy and congestion experienced at the terminal last winter, energypress sources have informed.

Low gas demand, the country’s mild winter weather, so far, and still-full gas storage units around Europe have made many previous orders unnecessary, sources at Greek gas grid operator DESFA, operating the Revythoussa LNG terminal, have explained.

DESFA is monitoring the situation to ensure gas-order cancellations do not impact operations at the Revythoussa LNG terminal, the sources noted.

The decline in natural gas demand, which ended 2023 21.6 percent down year-on-year, according to latest DESFA data, is expected to continue in the first quarter of 2024.

Though last year’s lower gas demand did show signs of a rebound in the final quarter of 2023, this was not enough to make up for weakened demand in the year’s previous quarters.

A year ago and, even more so in the autumn of 2022, high demand for slots at the Revythoussa LNG terminal had resulted in bids of as much as 4 million euros for a slot at DESFA’s related auctions.

At the time, the role of the Revythoussa LNG terminal was upgraded by the EU’s efforts to counter the energy crisis and end Europe’s reliance on Russian natural gas. As a result, Revythoussa became a strategic entry point for European gas imports.

Alexandroupoli FSRU, arriving 1Q, to offer 45,000 MWh daily

The Alexandroupoli FSRU, scheduled for launch at the country’s northeastern port in the first quarter, is planned to start operating by supplying roughly 45,000 MWh of natural gas into the Greek network daily, a major sufficiency boost for the domestic system.

The facility, set for launch by March 10, will initially offer an annual capacity of 1.5 bcm, or 27 percent of its annual capacity, to the Greek system. A further 4 bcm quantity will be supplied to the Bulgarian network via the IGB grid interconnection, and, by extension, Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, and in any markets where traders that have signed contracts with Gastrade, the project’s consortium, have customers.

An initial LNG load, to be used for testing, is scheduled to reach the Alexandroupoli LNG on January 20. It will not stem from Russia as the project is designed to contribute to ending southeast Europe’s reliance on Russian gas.

The testing stage will entail filling a 28-kilometer gas pipeline, running mostly underwater, that connects the terminal with the Greek gas system, in order to check all systems and correct any minor issues so that the FSRU can be ready to operate commercially after six to seven weeks, or early March.

The FSRU, comprised of a floating storage unit with a capacity of 153,500 m3 and three gasification units, offering daily gasification capacity of approximately 22.5 million m3, is a project of national significance that reinforces Greece’s role as an energy gateway to the markets of the wider region.

 

Gastrade Alexandroupoli FSRU anchors for testing, launch

The Alexandroupoli FSRU, a floating natural gas liquefaction and storage unit to be installed at the country’s northeastern port of Alexandroupoli by Gastrade, a consortium established by the Copelouzos group for the project’s development and operation, has just entered the Thracian Sea and anchored after setting sail November 26 from Singapore’s Seatrium shipyard, where the unit was developed over a period of nearly ten months.

The FSRU’s arrival to its permanent anchorage marks the completion of a project of major importance for the national and local economies.

In the coming days, the FSRU will be moored through a twelve-point mooring system before being connected to a high-pressure subsea and onshore gas transmission pipeline, which, once operational, will deliver gas to the Greek gas network and, subsequently, consumers in Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, North Macedonia, Serbia, Moldova, Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia.

The FSRU’s commercial launch is planned for the first quarter of 2024, once testing has been completed. The unit will offer a 5.5-bcm annual liquefaction capacity.

 

Gas prices will not fall as market still tight, experts note

LNG prices will not decline, market experts have forecast, noting the global market remains tight, new production-related investments will not be completed before 2025, while a cold winter could quickly deplete European gas reserves.

This projection was highlighted by executives representing some of the world’s biggest LNG companies at the 23rd World LNG Summit & Awards, hosted in Athens. Participating officials generally agreed that gas prices will remain relatively high this year due to a number of factors, including geopolitical instability, inflationary pressure and, most importantly, the absence of additional international production capacity.

“Natural gas reserves in Europe are high, accounting for 30 percent of demand in winter. However, if this winter season is cold, these reserves will diminish quite fast,” Anatol Feygin, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of Cheniere Energy, told the event, adding that no significant number of new LNG plants will come on stream in 2024.

Europe is not expected to encounter supply issues this winter as European countries can afford high prices and, as a result, will be able to attract significant volumes for yet another winter, unlike less affluent countries in other parts of the world.

Feygin, along with other LNG industry officials, agreed that LNG prices cannot de-escalate to pre-energy crisis levels if Russian pipeline gas remains sidelined from many markets.

 

Crucial DEPA, Gazprom talks on gas price, take-or-pay clause

Greek gas utility DEPA’s negotiations with Gazprom on new natural gas prices for 2024 and the Russian company’s insistence on activating a take-or-pay clause for a payment of approximately 400 million euros as compensation for unused gas quantities in 2022 and 2023 have reached a crucial stage and could end up in court.

A current price agreement between the two sides, signed in 2021, is 80 percent linked to the TTF index at the Dutch energy exchange and 20 percent linked to the price of oil.

DEPA is seeking an improved price level for 2024 as well as a retroactive price cut from January 1, 2023, which, if agreed on, would result in a reimbursement.

Also, DEPA disagrees with Gazprom’s insistence on triggering a take-or-pay clause in response to the Greek company’s failure to absorb a minimum natural gas amount of 17 TWh per year. DEPA contends its shortfall resulted from the Russian company’s failure to honor a crucial price-related term for gas supply at a price level that would ensure a competitive advantage for DEPA in the Greek market.

Over the past few months, Gazprom has supplied LNG and natural gas to at least one other customer in Greece at price levels lower than those offered to DEPA, sources at the gas utility have claimed.

Despite the introduction of EU measures designed to restrict Russian gas imports into Europe, they remain high in Greece, representing approximately 40 percent of the country’s overall gas imports – both LNG and pipeline gas – compared to just 9 percent in the EU.

Greek energy minister Thodoris Skylakakis, responding to journalists’ questions, contended he remains unperturbed by Gazprom’s dispute with Bulgaria over the Russian company’s refusal to meet a Bulgarian network usage surcharge demand of 10.2 euros per MWh.

Though this dispute could result in a disruption of Russian supply to Bulgaria and, by extension, Greece, the outcome would rid Greece of Russia’s high-cost demands, the minister contended.

The cost of the DEPA-Gazprom take-or-pay clause for 2022 is 150 million euros and is estimated to reach 300 million euros in 2023, according to the minister.

 

Egypt’s LNG exports to Europe in danger of being zeroed out

The widened Middle East conflict has greatly impacted Egypt’s LNG export ability, intensifying European fears of shortages on the continent this coming winter.

Production at Israel’s Tamar gas field, yielding 10 bcm per year, has been disrupted. This comes as a setback for Europe as a proportion of Israel’s production at the Tamar field is distributed to Egypt, which, in turn, exports to the continent in the form of LNG. Egyptian LNG exports were already down prior to this development.

As a result of these two factors, Egypt must now focus on covering its own energy needs, which relegates its LNG export interests to secondary status, analysts noted, warning that supply from Egypt could even be zeroed out.

LNG supply from Egypt is not negligible. Last year, Egypt exported 4.6 bcm, covering 5 percent of Europe’s needs.

Egyptian LNG exports have been severely restricted since October 7, when the current conflict was instigated by a Hamas attack on Israel, forcing the country to halt production at Tamar as a precautionary measure.

For the first time in years, Egypt’s LNG flow could reverse, transforming the country into an LNG importer rather than an LNG exporter.

Gas supply to Egypt has dropped by 70 to 80 percent since the closure of Tamar, a gas field that was producing at a rate of 23 million cubic meters a day during the year’s first eight months, an International Energy Agency analyst highlighted.

 

 

DESFA slot auction for 2024 successful, premia levels drop

Gas grid operator DESFA auctions staged last week for LNG cargo slots in 2024 proved successful, as had been anticipated. Just five of a total of 45 slots were available as 40 slots had already been reserved by bidders during a previous round.

This year, DESFA is, for the first time, staging LNG slot reservation auctions offering capacities for the next 15 years, from 2024 to 2038, triple the five-year extent offered up until last year.

Slot commitment by bidders beyond five years constitutes a significant qualitative leap for both the natural gas market and gas infrastructure as, on the one hand, long-term capacity agreements are bolstered, and on the other, infrastructure development visibility is improved through the expression of definite interest, market officials noted.

Latest auction premia have fallen to much lower levels, compared to last year, a development attributed to two key factors, reduced gas demand and the forthcoming launch of the Alexandroupoli LNG facility in Greece’s northeast, DESFA sources noted.

Reduced gas demand and the imminent launch of the new Alexandroupoli LNG facility, along with other gas-sector infrastructure, has led to a better supply-demand balance in terms of capacity commitment at the Revythoussa terminal – Greece’s only LNG unit at present – and  prevented conditions for high premiums, as was the case last year.

Heightened gas demand last year pushed slot prices well above auction starting prices. As a result, premia, or windfall earnings, generated at the Revythoussa slot auctions and the Greek gas grid’s other entry and exit points reached 65 million euros.

DESFA’s windfall earnings, according to domestic gas market regulations, need to be utilized to benefit grid users. The 65 million-euro amount accumulated last year will go towards supporting the country’s latest supply security effort, as part of a 160 million-euro preventive action plan.

This initiative will lessen, by 65 million euros, the supply security effort’s collection target through various surcharges on consumer bills.

Preventive action plan given green light following revisions

RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water, has approved an energy-crisis  preventive action plan following revisions made through consultation.

The authority clarified that an operating-life extension granted to lignite-fired power stations is part of the Greek State’s new plan addressing energy security issues, especially following European Commission guidelines promoting a reduction of natural gas usage and an end to the continent’s reliance on Russian gas.

The plan’s original section on lignite-fired energy needed to be corrected as its text created a misconception indicating that any lignite-unit participation in the country’s generation mix is governed by a special reserve mechanism. Such a mechanism does not exist.

Power utility PPC, in consultation that preceded the preventive action plan’s approval, clarified that lignite-fired power stations, until they are withdrawn, remain registered with power grid operator IPTO and, therefore, participate in markets while also taking into account other operating obligations such as provision of regional telethermal heating.

Terms regarding the usage limits of the Revythoussa LNG terminal’s storage facilities in the event of a heightened Level 2 or 3 natural gas crisis were also modified. The initial text proposed that the maximum usage time, in the event of a crisis, be reduced to six days, but, in the finalized plan, this limit reduction was reworded to “at least six days”.

EU adequately prepared for winter ahead, ACER notes

 

The EU is adequately prepared to cover its energy needs this coming winter, despite the effects of prolonged efforts that were needed last winter to overcome unprecedented challenges, data provided by ACER, Europe’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, has indicated.

The EU’s gas storage facilities are already 90 percent full, two months ahead of a November deadline.

Also, in the first two quarters of 2023, a target set for a 15 percent reduction in gas demand was achieved, while LNG import capacity has expanded by 20 percent, with the global market remaining well supplied, courtesy, in part, to limited demand growth from China.

Increased LNG imports and reduced demand have been key parts of the EU’s energy-crisis strategy.

LNG imports into the EU-27, as a percentage of overall natural gas imports,  doubled from 20 percent in 2018-2019 to 40 percent between August, 2022 and July, 2023. This percentage rise has been greatly attributed to LNG imports from the USA, up six-fold to 600 TWh.

Furthermore, solar, wind and pumped-storage energy solutions are being developed at a faster pace and contributing, slowly but steadily, to Europe’s reduced reliance on natural gas.

Despite the overall progress, Europe cannot afford to become complacent. According to Brussels-based economic think tank Bruegel, energy shortage fears have subsided but prices remain high.

Also, ongoing global instability could impact the industrial sector and the EU economy, the think tank warned.

The global LNG market, and, by extension, the natural gas market, will remain tight until more liquefaction plants come into play, Bruegel noted.

Encouragingly, new US LNG facilities to offer an annual capacity of 336 TWh, equivalent to half the EU’s LNG imports from Russia, are planned to begin operating in 2024.

Power suppliers project sharp price rises if conditions persist

Domestic electricity prices will inevitably rise by up to 15 percent as of January – when energy-crisis measures are planned to be lifted, reactivating indexation clauses – if current unfavorable international trends continue, local electricity market officials has projected.

Upward trajectories of natural gas and CO2 emission right prices, as well as the danger of a further rise in already-elevated interest rates, are worrisome factors whose combined effect could push up electricity prices, one official pointed out.

In Greece, wholesale electricity prices have soared by 80 percent over the past three days. On Sunday, wholesale electricity was priced at 93.49 euros per MWh, rose to 127.75 euros per MWh yesterday, before reaching 168.43 euros per MWh today.

Worse still, these wholesale electricity prices have yet to factor in October’s sharp rise in the price of natural gas, up approximately 30 to 35 percent in the first half of the month, to a peak of 56 euros per MWh, as Greece’s wholesale electricity market factors in gas prices from a month earlier.

Natural gas holds the dominant share of Greece’s energy mix, at 43.35 percent, followed by renewables, well below with a 21.37 percent share.

Though still well below last year’s astronomical price levels, natural gas prices of as low as 30 euros per MWh, recorded early this month, now seem to be a thing of the past.

The Israel-Gaza war and threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East – a negative development that has already disrupted operations at Israel’s Tamar gas field, from where gas quantities are delivered to Egypt and processed into LNG for export to Europe – is already impacting prices.

Price levels have been hit even harder by last week’s discovery of damage to the Estonian-Finnish Baltic-connector gas pipeline and telecommunications cable.

As for CO2 emission right prices, they have skyrocketed to levels 500 percent higher than pre-energy crisis levels, reaching approximately 90 euros per ton and, according to analysts, are projected to remain elevated over the next three years.

Romania’s Transgaz taking on 15% stake in Volos’ Argo FSRU

Romanian gas grid operator Transgaz has agreed to take on a 15 percent stake in the Mediterranean Gas consortium, promoting the Argo FSRU project at Volos, on the mainland’s east coast, a move that further boosts the LNG terminal’s development prospects as it promises the terminal a gas supply route to Balkan and central European markets.

Mediterranean Gas has lodged an application to Greek authorities for an equity make-up revision facilitating Transgaz’s entry into the consortium with the 15 percent share.

Mediterranean Gas is also holding discussions with other potential partners to further expand its shareholder base, while developments on the matter are expected soon, sources informed.

A recent first-phase market test conducted by Greek gas grid operator DESFA to gauge a capacity increase for the country’s gas grid highlighted Volos’ prospective FSRU as one of the interconnection points of greatest interest for users.

Romania’s natural gas market is one of considerable size as it can absorb up to 13 bcm. Also, the country’s gas network offers interconnectivity with neighboring countries as well as with central European markets, and, as a result, offers potential for transportation of significant gas quantities to the north.

Transgaz operates a gas network totaling 25,000 km, has acquired the Moldovan network, and manages 7 bcm in gas storage facilities.

The Argo FSRU, which will be designed to supply up to 4.6 bcm of natural gas, annually, is planned to begin operating in early 2024.

Alexandroupoli FSRU on track for early-2024 launch

Development of the Alexandroupoli FSRU at the country’s northeastern port is progressing steadily and set for an on-schedule launch by the end of January, 2024, energypress sources have informed.

Tanker conversion work being conducted for the FSRU at Singapore’s Keppel Shipyard was 87.1 percent ready at the end of August, meaning all basic equipment, including burners and gasifiers, has been installed, the sources added.

Representatives of Gastrade, the consortium established by the Copelouzos group for the development and operation of the Alexandroupoli FSRU, visited the Keppel Shipyard just days ago.  The consortium’s chief executive, Kostis Sifneos, headed the visiting group.

The consortium’s members – the Copelouzos group’s Elmina Copelouzou, Gaslog Cyprus Investments Ltd, DEPA Commercial, Bulgartransgaz and Greek gas grid operator DESFA, all holding 20 percent shares – plan to soon hold a meeting to discuss the project’s steps leading to its launch, the sources added.

The FSRU vessel is expected to be ready to set sail for Alexandroupoli in mid-November, before reaching its destination in early December.

The Alexandroupoli FSRU, to offer a 153,500-m3 LNG capacity, will be connected to Greece’s gas network via a 28-km pipeline, through which gasified LNG will be distributed to the domestic market, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Hungary, Moldova and Ukraine.

The project will serve as a new energy gateway promising to play a key role in the energy security and independence of Greece as well as central and southeast Europe.

LNG facility strikes in Australia raise European concerns

Strike action at three LNG facilities in Australia, a key player in the global LNG market, has raised concerns in Europe as the ongoing dispute between employers and employees could have a significant impact on global gas supply and, by extension, the price of the Dutch TTF futures contracts.

The strike action, taking place at facilities that account for roughly 10 percent of global supply, has destabilized the European natural gas market over the past few weeks.

Europe needs to prepare for the possibility of further instability and price rises as it remains unclear how the ongoing dispute at the LNG facilities in Australia will play out, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) noted in a report.

North West Shelf, an LNG facility run by Woodside Energy, and two Chevron-run facilities, Gordon and Wheatstone, could be affected by the ongoing strike action, IEEFA warned. All three facilities, combined, represent roughly 10 percent of global LNG supply.

Australia, along with Qatar and the USA, represent nearly 60 percent of global LNG supply. Although the majority of Australian LNG exports are destined for Japan, China and South Korea, the disruption caused by the strikes will lead to Asia and Europe competing for LNG.

DESFA sees Revythoussa LNG regasification in 2024 at 3 bcm

Gas grid operator DESFA estimates that an LNG quantity of just over 3 bcm will undergo regasification at its Revythoussa terminal, just off Athens, in 2024 for subsequent delivery to the country’s grid.

The projection, resulting in 35.7 terawatt-hours (TWh) of natural gas, is slightly lower than the 38.08 TWh of natural gas delivered to the grid in 2022, when the level rose sharply year-on-year, by 54 percent.

 

Just two shipments scheduled for LNG terminal next month

Just two LNG cargoes are scheduled to make their way to gas grid operator DESFA’s Revythoussa terminal, just off Athens, in September, just a fraction of shipments ordered for the islet terminal a year earlier, when the energy crisis had peaked, the operator’s finalized unloading schedule for next month has shown.

The first of the two shipments, a 147,710-m3 order placed by Mytilineos, is scheduled to arrive at the LNG terminal on September 17, while a second LNG order, placed by Elpedison for a 90,000-m3 quantity, is planned to reach the Revythoussa terminal on September 30.

In September, 2022, a total of 10 LNG shipments totaling 514,435 m3 had reached DESFA’s LNG terminal.

DESFA posts significant revenue, profit gains for 2022

Gas grid operator DESFA has posted impressive financial results for 2022, including a 37.6 percent year-on-year revenue increase to 278.3 million euros from 202.6 million euros, as well as a 29 percent rise in profit, to 81.6 million euros from 63.1 million euros a year earlier.

Analyzing its financial results, DESFA’s administration mainly attributed last year’s significant revenue increase, up by over 75 million euros, to higher regulated earnings, which grew by 69.2 million euros.

In her message to shareholders, DESFA’s chief executive officer Maria Rita Galli, made note of the business model followed by the company. “In conditions of great instability and huge volatility, DESFA’s business model has proved resilient, with the company occupying a strong position at the forefront of initiatives launched at national and European level to enhance security of supply in Greece and southeastern Europe,” DESFA’s CEO noted.

“The speed with which DESFA reacted to the interruption of Russian gas flow to Bulgaria, transforming the Greek gas grid into a transit corridor, led to a gas exports increase of approximately 300 percent compared to the previous year, supported by 78 LNG cargoes unloaded at the Revythoussa terminal, whose storage capacity increased by more than 60 percent in record time with the installation, in June 2022, of a floating storage unit,” she continued.

DESFA also announced it is currently looking to separate regulated and non-regulated activities, through the formation of a new company, following a request by RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water.

Collective gas orders increase in second purchasing round

A second round of collective European gas purchases, through a platform similar to one established for vaccine orders during the pandemic, has resulted in natural gas orders totaling nearly 12 bcm, well over a quantity ordered during the procedure’s first round in May.

However, the EU initiative fell short of attracting full participation. Second-round orders were delivered to twenty European grid entry points, the majority of quantities at entry points in the Netherlands, France, Italy, Bulgaria and Germany, as well as Ukrainian storage facilities, Sefcovic noted.

“The positive results of this second round illustrate that there is a need and clear added value to join forces, pool our demand and work together to guarantee stable and affordable gas supply to the EU market,” noted the European Commission’s Vice President Maros Sefcovic, who oversees the platform, named AggregateEU.

It was established by the EU following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to prevent bidding wars between fellow member states and utilize their collective bargaining power potential for competitively priced energy supply as an alternative to Russian natural gas.

Approximately 5.5 bcm, or 45 percent, of the second round’s orders, totaling 11.98 bcm, were made for LNG, well over this energy source’s share of orders in the first round, below 20 percent of the total. Pipeline gas represented all other collective orders made through the platform in the second round.

A third round is expected to be staged in September and is planned to be followed by two further rounds before the end of the year.

Italgas’ Greek EBITDA goal for ’23, €106m, highlights local importance

Italian energy group Italgas’ 2023 EBITDA target of 106 million euros for its Greek portfolio, representing 9 percent of the group’s overall EBITDA objective this year, highlights the strategic importance of the group’s business plan in Greece.

Italgas’ CEO, Paolo Gallo, highlighted this importance during his presentation yesterday of the Italian company’s strategic plan for 2023 to 2029 to investors and analysts in London.

According to Italgas’ seven-year strategic plan, the Greek portfolio’s EBITDA will contract slightly to 8 percent of the group’s overall EBITDA in 2029.

Italgas plans to greatly increase the group’s activities in the Greek market and subsequently boost their value from 700 million euros in 2022 to 1.2 billion euros by 2029, at an annual growth rate of 7.3 percent.

A key objective for the group in the Greek market is to expand natural gas distribution to new areas through the addition of 42 municipalities to the network, either through pipeline distribution or LNG stations.

Italgas has acquired DEPA Infrastructure and its three gas distribution subsidiaries, EDA Attiki, EDA THESS and DEDA.

The Italian group is currently working on a plan to merge its three Greek gas distribution subsidiaries, a development expected to offer significant benefits in terms of efficiency, effectiveness and transfer of know-how. According to Italgas officials, this procedure is expected to be completed by the end of the year.

 

Natural gas price spike prompts new market alert

News that the Netherlands intends to soon stop production at Groningen, one of Europe’s largest gas fields, as a result of earthquake-related risks, pushed gas prices up by 28 percent yesterday, not surprising, as Groningen is a key gas source for countries in Europe’s west.

The development has made even more urgent the intention of Greece and Spain, along with other EU member states, to reestablish a common front as protection against the outbreak of any new energy crisis.

This group plans to request the continuation of a windfall earnings recovery mechanism in the wholesale electricity market when EU energy ministers meet on Monday to discuss a new structure for the bloc’s energy market.

The Dutch TTF benchmark has risen 113 percent over the past 15 days, from 23 euros per MWh to 49 euros per MWh yesterday, before easing off to 39 euros per MWh.

A temporary disruption of operations at some of Norway’s gas fields has unsettled European markets. Though production at these Norwegian gas fields will soon be normalized, the Netherlands have yet to reach a final decision on the country’s Groningen gas field. However, it is expected to continue producing should a new energy crisis hit Europe or if its upcoming winter is a cold one.

At this stage, ambiguity prevails as it remains unclear if Europe’s natural gas market finds itself at the onset of a new upward trajectory.

A sudden increase in LNG demand in Asia as a result of China’s post-pandemic return to full production is another major concern for European energy market players. Such a development promises to escalate prices.

 

Spain, Greece want windfall recovery mechanism continued

Greece and Spain, part of a group of EU member states seeking to reestablish a common front against any new energy crisis, intend to call for the continuation of a windfall earnings recovery mechanism in the wholesale electricity market when EU energy ministers meet on June 19 to discuss a new structure for the bloc’s energy market.

The European Commission last year adopted a windfall earnings recovery mechanism that was essentially based on a Greek model before it was applied by member states with some variation.

The Spanish government and the country’s energy minister Teresa Ribera want a recovery mechanism included in the European electricity market’s new structure and activated whenever any price crisis breaks out.

The proposal has already received support from Greece, to be represented at next Tuesday’s meeting by the interim government’s energy minister Pantelis Kapros, and a number of other EU member states.

This group of member states is now working on establishing a united stance on the recovery mechanism ahead of next week’s meeting.

It remains to be seen if the alliance will be strong enough to convince Brussels to include the mechanism in its plan for the new market structure.

Some EU member states remain concerned about the possibility of a new energy crisis despite EU gas storage facilities being 60 percent full and a  continual inflow of LNG at European ports.

 

 

Alexandroupoli FSRU pipeline work in progress, tanker to arrive November

Development work for the Alexandroupoli FSRU at the country’s northeastern port is in full progress on all fronts, in preparation for the project’s launch early next year.

Besides the project’s floating LNG storage and regasification infrastructure, work is also in progress on the offshore and onshore pipelines to transmit gas to the national grid and, from there, the Greek-Bulgarian IGB pipeline connection for gas quantities to the Balkans.

Officials at Gastrade, the consortium established by the Copelouzos group for the development and operation of the Alexandroupoli FSRU, offered an on-site presentation of the FSRU’s work in progress to visiting ambassadors. This mission was organized by George Tsounis, the US ambassador to Greece, and included the ambassadors of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine.

The FSRU’s subsea pipelines, to measure 24 km, and overland pipelines, measuring a further 4 km, have been delivered to the Alexandroupoli port for installation.

The Alexandroupoli FSRU promises to serve as an additional source of gas supply for Greece and other Balkan countries. Quantities will be transmitted through the IGB for delivery to Bulgaria and, by extension, Romania.

The project’s specially equipped floating tanker is expected to arrive at its Alexandroupoli location in late November, while the FSRU facility should start operating early in 2024.

Gastrade has already been granted a further license for an additional FSRU, intended to serve Moldova and Ukraine, if the results of a related market test indicate that such an additional project would be viable.

It remains unknown when Gastrade could make an investment decision on this additional FSRU.

 

DESFA, RAAEY apart on tariff agreement as deadline nears

Gas grid operator DESFA and RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water, still far apart on the operator’s WACC figure for the next regulatory period covering 2024 to 2027, are engaged in tough negotiations as a June 5 deadline for new tariffs approaches.

DESFA set a WACC figure of 9.14 percent in a proposal put through consultation in mid-March. It has been firmly opposed by RAEEY, believing this figure is unjustifiably high.

DESFA ended 2022 with a WACC figure of 7.44 percent, a starting point for RAEEY in its negotiations. The authority, viewing DESFA’s new WACC figure as pivotal as it will serve as a guide in the levels to be set for other operators, believes the operator’s new level should be a little over last year’s 7.44 percent level, and certainly under 8 percent.

The WACC level to be applied by DESFA over the next regulatory period from 2024 to 2027 is one of four aspects that need to be resolved before gas transmission network usage tariffs are set.

DESFA also needs to finalize its operational expenditure figure for the next regulatory period so that an allowed revenue for the operator may be set. The operator has yet to send this data to RAAEY and, consequently, appears likely to miss the June 5 deadline on this matter.

DESFA’s socialization percentage concerning the operating cost of its Revythoussa LNG terminal just off Athens is another unresolved matter. DESFA has proposed that it be maintained at the current level of 50 percent for the next regulatory period.

However, Gastrade and Motor Oil, both developing new floating LNG terminals in other parts of Greece, have protested, contending this figure is excessive and would offer DESFA’s Revythoussa facility an unfair advantage and undermine the financial viability of their investments. ACER, Europe’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, has backed the two companies on this issue.

DESFA’s ten-year development plan covering 2023 to 2032, a fourth prerequisite needed before its new gas transmission network usage tariffs are set, has already received RAAEY’s approval.

 

DESFA opts to not extend expiring FSU deal for LNG terminal

Gas grid operator DESFA will not make use of an option to extend its expiring one-year lease agreement for an additional floating storage unit installed at the operator’s LNG terminal on the islet Revythoussa last summer as an energy security measure, the operator’s head official has informed.

“We have already agreed with RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, that it [agreement] will not be renewed and the tanker will be released as it was a temporary solution that served the need to maintain strategic LNG stocks for power generators during the winter period,” Maria Rita Galli, CEO at DESFA, told Greek daily business newspaper Nafteboriki.

The current one-year FSU agreement, worth 20 million euros, expires in June. It ended up being a high-cost solution for DESFA as a result of the mild winter conditions as well as LNG quantity loss resulting from evaporation issues at the upper level of the FSU, a situation that could have been greatly restricted had a decision been reached to connect this unit to the Revythoussa terminal for direct transmission into the grid.

DESFA is believed to be examining the prospect of renting a new tanker for a shorter duration of five months, which would entail far lower cost, energypress sources have informed. If so, DESFA is expected to stage a tender within the upcoming summer for a new LNG tanker lease agreement.

Market officials anticipate the installation of a replacement LNG tanker will probably be needed to cover natural gas storage needs ahead of next winter.

The additional FSU currently in use increased the Revythoussa LNG terminal’s capacity by 70 percent, to approximately 370,000 cubic meters.

Motor Oil reexamining Dioryga Gas FSRU project in Corinth

Energy group Motor Oil is reexamining its plan for the Dioryga Gas FSRU project in Corinth, west of Athens, over concerns created by a change in market conditions, the group’s management revealed yesterday during its presentation of 2022 financial results to analysts.

Petros Tzannetakis, Motor Oil’s deputy managing director, told analysts the group is taking a closer look at details concerning the project.

“We are not saying that we will not go ahead, but that we are still looking at a lot of details,” Tzannetakis noted.

Results of a market test were favorable but market conditions have changed as it has become costlier and more difficult to find LNG carriers, the Motor Oil deputy explained, noting “we still need time before making an investment decision.”

If the project is deemed feasible, the investment will go ahead, Tzannetakis informed.

In its final market test, the Dioryga Gas FSRU project attracted record slot reservation figures for durations of up to 25 years and quantities totaling up to 2 bcm per year.

Located just 22 km from Greece’s existing Revythoussa islet LNG terminal, the Dioryga Gas FSRU would supply electricity producers in Greece as well as markets in southeast Europe.

Last October, RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, approved a capacity increase for the Dioryga Gas FSRU to between 135,00 and 210,000 cubic meters. Motor Oil aims to launch the FSRU in the first quarter of 2024, if the company decides to go ahead with the project’s development.

 

Short-term measures sought to contain any new energy crisis

Energy minister Kostas Skrekas, who believes that recent European Commission proposals to further counter the energy crisis are on the right track but remain too timid, intends to call for firmer, more immediate action aimed at containing any new crisis at tomorrow’s Energy Council of EU energy ministers.

The energy minister is expected to express support of Brussels’ approach at tomorrow’s Energy Council but also underline major challenges faced by Europe, especially next winter, when, according to many analysts, a sharp rise in energy demand will not be able to be covered by existing LNG supply levels, and, as a result, bring about a new round of sharp price rises.

In a recent report, Goldman Sachs reminded that the structural deficit in European gas balances caused by the interruption of Russian gas supply has not yet been addressed.

Any sharp increase in energy demand during the lead-up to next winter, when Russian gas quantities that filled European energy storage facilities last year will have to be covered by the LNG market, could, according to Goldman Sachs, double current wholesale gas prices back up to levels of at 100 euros per MWh, as supply remains limited.

International projects currently being developed to boost global LNG supply are not expected to emerge and offer results before 2025.

Greek officials are seeking the establishment of a new European fund that could provide state guarantees for CfDs and other possible measures included in the European Commission’s set of proposals, such as hedging.

Athens believes that, without some form of support, prospective benefits of measures proposed by the European Commission will be limited to EU member states possessing fiscal leeway and marginalize the rest.

 

Overdevelopment danger for LNG terminals in Europe, IEEFA warns

Major LNG terminals being developed in various parts of Europe, including Greece and Germany, in response to reduced Russian gas supply, could fail to achieve full commercial potential as the continent may end up possessing a far greater number of such facilities than required by 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned.

If REPower EU objectives are attained and Turkish gas demand remains steady, then European demand for LNG will be restricted to a level of just 150 billion cubic meters in 2030, down from 175 bcm in 2022, IEEFA pointed out. At such a level in 2030, LNG terminals in Europe would operate at less than 40 percent of capacity.

IEEFA also stressed that European gas operators have an incentive to over-expand their infrastructure and asset base in order to deliver profits to shareholders, even if projects do not end up being fully utilized.

Existing legislation provides operators with guaranteed revenues collected through tariffs, IEEFA pointed out. Evidence strongly suggests the Russian attack on Ukraine has accelerated Europe’s energy transition by dramatically boosting the penetration of green technologies that reduce demand for gas and LNG, the institute added.

 

Energy ministry multi-bill at parliamentary committee

Greek Parliament’s Standing Committee on Production and Trade begins is set to begin discussions today on a multi-bill covering a wide range of energy-sector issues. The committee’s talks are expected to continue during the week, but a date has yet to be set for the multi-bill’s tabling in Parliament for ratification.

Energy-sector issues included in the multi-bill include a formula for filtering out stagnant RES projects as a means of freeing up required grid capacity.

Non-auction tariff levels in 2023 for small-scale wind and solar energy projects of up to 6 MW is another matter included in the energy ministry’s multi-bill, as are power purchase agreement (PPA) rights for RES projects, instead of fixed tariffs, which were trimmed as part of the new deal.

Also included is an article concerning a compensation amount for gas company DEPA Commercial following the cost of its recent decision to cancel LNG orders, not required as a result of lower energy demand this winter.

It also includes revisions exempting businesses and farmers from public service compensation surcharges, included in electricity bills, worth 63 million euros.

In another section, the multi-bill includes terms increasing upper capacity limits to 100 kW on solar energy panels installed for net-metering purposes by churches, charities, NGOs and schools.

Moreover, the revisions include an EU formula to be adopted for the development of offshore wind farms as a pilot project off Alexandroupoli, northeastern Greece.