gas prices

Extra budget sum needed for special a/c’s widened deficit

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Lower natural gas price levels in recent times and the subsequent drop in wholesale electricity prices have reduced retail electricity tariffs but widened the deficit of the Public Service Compensation (YKO) special account, meaning additional state budget money will be needed to fill the gap.

This special account’s revenues have decreased, while outlays subsidizing electricity used by consumers on the country’s non-interconnected islands and by low-income households have remained steady.

Just weeks ago, energy ministry and finance ministry officials determined, during talks, that a sum of roughly 300 million euros would need to be drawn from the state budget to partially cover the Public Service Compensation (YKO) special account’s deficit. However, given latest conditions, an additional sum of at least 100 million euros in budget money will be needed.

The two ministries reached an initial agreement on the state-budget sum required in mid-February, but ensuing calculations following a significant drop in wholesale electricity prices revealed that the Public Service Compensation (YKO) special account’s deficit has widened further.

The additional state-budget sum of at least 100 million euros needed for this account may require officials to revise an earlier plan dividing its deficit, estimated at 700 million euros, into three parts for gradual coverage between this year and 2026.

TTF hike raises concerns over perceived ‘return to normality’

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A steady rise in the TTF index over the past few days, following more than a year of decline, has market players concerned about the direction natural gas prices could take for the rest of this year.

The TTF, Europe’s gas benchmark, had fallen to as low as 23 euros per MWh a few weeks ago but has now rebounded, reaching a level of 28 euros per MWh yesterday. Gas futures dated December, 2024 and onwards are currently priced at over 30 euros per MWh.

The rising trend comes following a very mild winter of low consumption, which, however, was higher compared to last year.

Market players do not appear to be fully convinced by Europe’s extension of measures aiming to reduce demand for yet another year, until the end of next winter.

The recent insecurity that has crept into the market appears to stem from Europe’s anticipated loss of Russian gas imported via a Ukrainian corridor. A five-year pipeline gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow for Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine expires at the beginning of 2025. Ukraine has declared it does not intend to renew this agreement.

This bilateral agreement’s end is expected to reduce the EU’s total gas imports by 5 percent. The loss will need to be offset by an increase in LNG shipments.

Unfavorable news from across the Atlantic has further unsettled market players. Natural gas producers such as EQT have decided to reduce output as a result of extremely low gas prices in the domestic market.

The downward trajectory of the TTF in recent months was driven by weak demand in Asia, including China, a trend whose continuation cannot be depended on. Also, the EU cannot count on next winter being as mild as the previous two winters.

 

PPA conditions altered by falling gas and electricity prices

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Falling natural gas prices and, subsequently, lower electricity prices, have brought about major changes to Greece’s renewable-energy PPA (power purchase agreements) market conditions, prompting industrial consumers and power suppliers to push for lower-priced PPAs.

Off-takers, or industry and power suppliers, are gaining an upper hand over RES producers in terms of price negotiations for prospective PPAs. RES producers are being forced to show greater price leniency in order to secure the development of new projects.

Given the natural gas and electricity price drops, existing ten-year PPAs established by power utility PPC with metal processing company Viohalko and cement producer Titan are also expected to be renegotiated as the price levels for these agreements, set at 56 euros per MWh, are no longer considered competitive.

Prior to the de-escalation of natural gas and electricity prices, PPAs virtually represented a life raft for industrial consumers and suppliers by offsetting exposure to high electricity prices and, more generally, considerable market volatility.

At present, natural gas prices on international energy exchanges have reached a three-year low, reaching 22.53 euros per MWh last Friday, and, in doing so, have also pushed down wholesale electricity prices, currently at levels of less than 100 euros per MWh.

Under such conditions, PPAs are no longer seen as a crucial. Instead, they have become irrelevant as the need for hedging has been significantly reduced or even eliminated. Market analysts do not see any upward price swing in the months ahead, a further de-escalation in gas and electricity prices seeming most probable.

 

Gas prices will not fall as market still tight, experts note

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LNG prices will not decline, market experts have forecast, noting the global market remains tight, new production-related investments will not be completed before 2025, while a cold winter could quickly deplete European gas reserves.

This projection was highlighted by executives representing some of the world’s biggest LNG companies at the 23rd World LNG Summit & Awards, hosted in Athens. Participating officials generally agreed that gas prices will remain relatively high this year due to a number of factors, including geopolitical instability, inflationary pressure and, most importantly, the absence of additional international production capacity.

“Natural gas reserves in Europe are high, accounting for 30 percent of demand in winter. However, if this winter season is cold, these reserves will diminish quite fast,” Anatol Feygin, executive vice president and chief commercial officer of Cheniere Energy, told the event, adding that no significant number of new LNG plants will come on stream in 2024.

Europe is not expected to encounter supply issues this winter as European countries can afford high prices and, as a result, will be able to attract significant volumes for yet another winter, unlike less affluent countries in other parts of the world.

Feygin, along with other LNG industry officials, agreed that LNG prices cannot de-escalate to pre-energy crisis levels if Russian pipeline gas remains sidelined from many markets.

 

Natural gas seen remaining key power price-setter in 2030

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Natural gas will continue being a key price setter of the system marginal price, or wholesale electricity price, in Europe in 2030, with a degree of influence similar to that of the present, despite the deepening penetration of renewables in the continent’s energy mix, a latest study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center has projected.

Natural gas-fueled power plants will continue being an influential price-setting technology for wholesale electricity prices in 2030, despite covering only 11 percent of the generation mix, the study determined. Last year, natural gas-fueled power plants, covering 19 percent of total EU electricity demand, set system marginal price levels 55 percent of the time.

Greece is a prime example of the anticipated trend as, in 2030, natural gas is projected to be the price-setting technology for the system marginal price more than 80 percent of the time.

Natural gas will continue playing a leading role as a price-setting technology in Europe in 2030 as natural gas-fueled power stations are seen replacing higher-emitting lignite and coal-fired power stations, the study noted.

Renewables are projected to keep gaining a bigger share of Europe’s generation mix, from 46 percent at present to 67 percent by the end of the decade, the study projected.

Also, increasing cross-border grid interconnectivity in the EU will lead to lower wholesale prices and price convergence within the European market, the study pointed out.

Greek wholesale electricity prices fourth highest in Europe

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Greece’s wholesale electricity prices were ranked fourth highest in Europe during the year’s first eight-month period, behind those of Italy, Malta and Ireland, according to data presented to Greek Parliament by RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water, in response to a question raised by the left-wing main opposition Syriza party.

The authority primarily attributed Greece’s high European electricity price ranking to lofty prices recorded in January, when they peaked at 201 euros per MW/h as a result of a delayed implementation of natural gas prices in the Greek market, in contrast to other parts of Europe.

Subsequently, a natural gas price peak to 119 euros per MWh in December, 2022 made immediate impact on wholesale electricity prices in other parts of Europe but did not influence electricity prices in Greece until a month later, when prices had begun falling elsewhere on the continent.

Wholesale electricity prices in Greece were Europe’s highest in January. However, several months later, in June and July, the setting had changed drastically, with Greek wholesale electricity prices ranked 15th among 32 European countries, RAAEY noted.

Unchanged 50% socialization rate for LNG terminal proposed

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Gas grid operator DESFA, in a proposal forwarded to RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, has suggested that the socialization cost-coverage percentage at its Revythoussa LNG terminal remain unchanged at the present level of 50 percent over the next four-year regulatory period running from 2024 to 2027.

DESFA delivered its proposal after conducting a cost-benefit analysis whose results showed that the net benefit of the socialization of the Revythoussa LNG terminal just off Athens increases with the utilization of other LNG terminals in Greece.

A greater cost socialization rate for the Revythoussa LNG terminal helps further reduce wholesale gas prices in Greece as the price of LNG, which is the marginal fuel determining the marginal price, is reduced.

On a wider scale, this price reduction enables lower gas supply prices for the Greek market as well as neighboring markets.

DESFA, which last carried out a similar study in 2020, is required to do so every two years based on socialization cost rules for infrastructure set by ACER, Europe’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators.

 

 

 

 

Natural gas price increases seen as inevitable following oil-price rally

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A rise in natural gas prices appears inevitable as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices prompted by a drastic cutback in oil production decided on by the eight-member OPEC+ group.

Dutch TTF gas futures rose by as much as 30 percent over the past ten days before easing.

TTF gas futures for May are priced at 45 euros per MWh, but rise for ensuing months. July futures are currently at 46.3 euros per MWh, August futures are at 47.1 euros per MWh, September futures are at 48.6 euros per MWh, October futures are at 52 euros per MWh and November futures are at 57.9 euros per MWh.

In comments to energypress, local energy company officials shared concerns of a new round of gas price increases, noting conditions are currently fluid but will clear up over the next few weeks.

The impact of the rise in oil prices is already being felt at retail level in the US, while Europe is also bracing for an ascent as the price of crude shapes the price of natural gas by a coefficient of at least 50 percent, according to IEA.

If applied to its full extent, as of May 23, the OPEC+ decision to slash oil production could have greater impact on natural gas prices than Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading analysts, including Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS (Oil Price Information Service), have noted.

 

Electricity prices deescalating for third successive month

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Wholesale electricity prices appear set to deescalate for a third successive month, prompting market officials to interpret the trend as a definite sign of price normalization, since January.

Even so, some market officials warn the market remains volatile and could still be significantly impacted by various unfavorable events.

Price levels in the first half of March were below those of the equivalent period in February.

Average wholesale electricity prices at the energy exchange over the past couple of days were below 100 euros per MWh, at 89.74 and 97.42 euros per MWh, respectively.

Earlier this month, wholesale electricity price levels ranged between 106 and 160 euros per MWh, compared to between 137 and 168 euros per MWh in the first half of February.

Wholesale electricity prices averaged 191.79 euros per MWh in January and dropped to an average of 156.24 euros per MWh in February, levels well below December’s average of 276.89 euros per MWh.

The natural gas market’s TTF index has followed a similar course. It ranged between 85 and 140 euros per MWh in December, fell to levels of between 65 and 68 euros per MWh in January, and has dropped to levels as low as 42 euros per MWh in recent days. The TTF has since edged up to levels of between 49 and 52 euros per MWh over the past three days.

Electricity retailers are expected to announce lower prices for April in a few days’ time. By law, power suppliers in Greece are required to announce their prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of every preceding month.

 

 

Energy price drop reduces likelihood of market revisions

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Reduced energy prices in Europe have dampened the likelihood of any major market revisions, while, given the currently mild conditions, officials are most likely to enter a period of protracted talks before reaching any decisions, developments on the first day, yesterday, of an informal meeting between EU energy ministers in Stockholm have indicated.

The opening day of talks in Sweden, holding the EU’s rotating presidency for the first half of 2023, included a session on “Energy market planning and security of supply – preparing for next winter and beyond” and will today be followed up by talks on “Future energy policy for industrial competitiveness in all Member States”.

Greece, represented by the energy ministry’s secretary-general, Alexandra Sdoukou, is upholding its long-held view in support of radical market changes that would decouple electricity prices from those of natural gas so that final prices reflect actual cost rather than be influenced by gas price fluctuations.

Though natural gas prices have levelled off lately, they remain a constant threat given pricing methods used in wholesale electricity markets.

Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Romania support radical market changes that would stop prices being fully shaped by the day-ahead market.

Some EU member states, including Denmark and the Netherlands, are in favor of certain market changes but are steering clear of radical restructuring, while others, among them Belgium and Hungary, propose no changes to the target model.

Germany has proposed deferring talks for any market revisions until 2024.

Analysts expect new round of gas price increases this year

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Analysts are projecting an eventual rise in gas prices over the next few months as a result of the combined effect of several factors, the main one being Europe’s almost entire dependence, these days, on imported LNG.

This LNG dependence, following Europe’s drift away from Russia, along with Europe’s limited LNG gasification infrastructure, until at least 2025, will inevitably lead to price increases at some point in 2023, analysts have noted.

Natural gas prices have been falling in recent times and are expected to, once again, drop below the price level of coal. This price descent, analysts believe, will reignite industrial activity in Europe, boosting gas demand.

Also, Chinese production, currently operating at below full capacity as a result of the country’s strict adherence, until recently, to a zero-Covid policy, is also expected to get back into top gear within 2023.

In addition, if Europe avoids recession, then global gas orders will skyrocket.

Taking these factors into account, Europe needs to maintain links with pipeline gas supply if energy security is to be ensured on the continent, analysts have noted.

This highlights the significance of projects such as the East Med gas pipeline plan, now seeming to be back in favor. It promises to connect Israel, Cyprus and Greece, over a total distance of 2,000 kilometers, before crossing to Italy via the Poseidon pipeline, a 210-kilometer stretch.

Nominal electricity tariffs to be cut by over 50% for February

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Electricity suppliers are expected to announce nominal tariff reductions of more than 50 percent for February this Friday, the 20th of the month and, under recently introduced market rules, the monthly deadline date for tariff announcements concerning each forthcoming month.

This anticipated electricity price reduction for next month has been shaped by favorable conditions at the TTF gas index, now down to levels of between 63 and 65 euros per MWh.

Nominal electricity tariffs – before subsidies are factored in – for the current month range between 0.358 and 0.489 euros per KWh, but are expected to plunge to levels of between 0.20 and 0.22 euros per KWh for February.

Electricity subsidies funded by the Energy Transition Fund brought down this month’s nominal rates for finalized electricity retail rates of between 0.03 and 0.15 euros per KWh.

In Greece, TTF gas index reductions do not directly impact the electricity market as power suppliers base their price levels on gas prices of the previous month.

The country’s electricity prices are greatly shaped by natural gas prices as natural gas typically represents approximately 40 percent of the Greek energy mix.

TTF drop over, gas prices on the rebound, analysts forecast

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Natural gas prices, up 20 percent over the past week on levels that had plunged to less than 65 euros per MWh in the last month, are establishing a new upward trajectory, market experts believe.

Colder weather anticipated around Europe over the next few months, a slight drop in gas storage facility reserves around the continent, as well as slightly higher prices offered by Asian buyers, already attracting some LNG shipments to China, now moving again after letting go of its zero-Covid policy, are the key factors seen putting an end to the recent decline in gas prices.

The combined effect of these factors is expected to maintain natural gas prices at levels of between 70 and 80 euros per MWh. Natural gas was priced at 74.80 euros per MWh on the TTF index yesterday, a rise based on expectation rather than any substantial change in current market conditions.

Natural gas storage capacities in Europe have now dropped to an average of 83.5 percent after reaching levels of 95.5 percent of capacity in November.

Though gas prices are currently roughly 40 percent below levels of 120 to 130 euros per MWh recorded this time last year, market volatility is expected to remain a concern in 2023, market analysts told energypress.

Price levels, they have forecast, will soon climb back up to levels of more than 100 euros per MWh before falling again next autumn, when gas storage facilities have been refilled to 90 percent of capacity.

Natural gas prices tumble to 12-month low, crucial period still ahead

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European natural gas prices tumbled to 65 euros per MWh yesterday, a new 12-month low last reached in mid-January, 2022, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The price drop has been attributed to mild European winter conditions, so far, that have flattened demand and kept the continent’s energy storage facilities 84 percent full, well above the level recorded a year ago and approximately 30 percent higher than the average level recorded over the past five years.

Analysts insist European market conditions remain fragile, despite the favorable price trajectory of natural gas so far this winter. A sudden change of weather conditions, combined with a complete disruption of Russian gas supply to Europe, could spark a new round of price volatility and deplete European gas reserves by the end of winter, analysts have warned.

The European energy market, experts have long pointed out, will face its toughest test in spring, when EU member states will begin efforts to refill their gas storage facilities in preparation for the winter of 2023-2024.

This refilling period could once again spike natural gas prices to levels of 120 euros per MWh, analysts have noted. Russian pipeline gas supply is expected to be considerably lower in spring, while the LNG market, on which Europe now greatly depends, is expected to be tight in spring.

A worst-case scenario for Europe would combine a complete disruption of Russian natural gas supply with an increase of LNG demand in the Chinese market. Such a combination would prompt a natural gas shortage estimated to reach as much as 57 billion cubic meters, or 15 percent of projected demand.

Month-ahead pricing prevents electricity prices from falling

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Greece’s month-ahead pricing model in the energy market has prevented a recent 40 percent plunge in natural gas prices from pushing down electricity prices, currently at 248.24 euros per MWh, as has been the case in numerous other European countries.

Rigid electricity prices in the Greek market have sparked political debate, prompting the main opposition party, leftist Syriza, to claim speculative trading is at play.

However, Greece’s month-ahead energy pricing model can be attributed to this lack of correlation between gas and electricity prices in Greece, making the country an oddity in the European energy market.

As a result of the lack of an international spot market in Greece, electricity producers in the country purchase natural gas for each forthcoming month at price levels valid in the preceding month.

Electricity being produced at present factors in natural gas price levels from November, when purchased, instead of the current spot market price for natural gas, which has fallen to a ten-month low, not reached since last February.

Natural gas prices were consistently above 100 euros per MWh in November, peaking at 146 euros per MWh, but price levels yesterday, for January contracts, fell to less than 80 euros per MWh, continuing a downward trajectory that has been recorded over the past eight days.

Insufficient grid interconnections between Greece and neighboring markets, limiting the size of the Greek market, are a key reason behind the absence of an international spot market here.

 

Soaring gas prices in Europe, up 60% in 3 weeks, ‘unjustified’

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Wholesale gas prices have surged by 60 percent over the past few weeks – widely regarded as unjustified – under the pretext of falling temperatures and increased demand, despite no supply issues as gas storage facilities around Europe are virtually full.

January derivatives on the Dutch exchange (TTF) exceeded 160 euros per MWh yesterday, reaching as high as 165 euros per MWh, the highest level since October 13, following levels as low as 105 euros per MWh during the first ten days of November.

This surge, supposedly resulting from an increase in demand, strongly suggests speculators and traders are having a field day as gas storage facilities around Europe are about 95 percent full and offer supply security.

Meanwhile, the EU’s 27 member states remain divided over the details of a possible gas price cap and are continuing their negotiations without an agreement in sight.

“In essence, the energy market is once again hostage to speculation. The volume of virtual trading in January derivatives is bought and resold ten, twenty times, or even more, creating unjustified revaluations,” Dimitris Kardomateas, former Director General of Strategy & Development at gas grid operator DESFA, told energypress. “Prices at the US Henry Hub are 22-23 euros per MWh, while, in Europe, they are now at 140-150 euros per MWh,” he added.

 

International gas prices lowered by favorable conditions

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More favorable market conditions of late have prompted a de-escalation of international gas prices, currently on a downward trajectory. This morning, the international price for natural gas reached as low as 107.355 euros per MWh, a new four-month low.

Market officials explained that LNG is currently available in abundance with some tankers unable to secure delivery destinations as Europe’s storage facilities are close to full.

At the same time, demand for Russian gas in Asia, primarily China – where Russia has turned to as a result of restricted exports to Europe – has fallen significantly. Mild weather conditions in Europe at present have helped contain demand for gas.

This gas price drop will not become fully apparent in the retail market until mid-November – unless a new price surge is experienced – as prices are set based on the previous month’s prices.

‘EC intervention acceptance of energy market failure’

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The European Commission has finally decided to adopt state intervention measures in energy markets, mainly electricity, after much delay, essentially accepting the failure of markets to produce desired results, Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economics at the National Technical University of Athens, has noted in an analysis.

Major energy price increases needed to spread throughout Europe for Brussels to decide to intervene, the energy expert noted.

Fixed price offers and price hedging contracts – which, in many countries, secured, over a considerable period, relatively stable retail electricity prices not reflecting rising electricity prices at energy exchanges – have become impossible to maintain as a result of the extended energy price crisis, the professor pointed out in his analysis.

Consumer prices are now skyrocketing virtually everywhere in Europe, increasing the risk of bankruptcies, a perilous situation that has prompted EU governments to push the European Commission for state intervention proposals, the professor underlined.

During this crisis, electricity markets have failed to achieve consumer prices at levels reflecting the true long-term average cost of electricity, as healthy competition would, the professor noted.

Given the exorbitant natural gas prices at present, green hydrogen would represent a lower-cost alternative, if infrastructure was in place, the professor noted, concluding green transition is the only positive way out of the problem, as has now been recognized by all.

Reduced power usage, gas price caps on EU meeting agenda

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A list of emergency energy price-control measures to be discussed by the EU-27 energy ministers at an extraordinary meeting on September 9 make up a document prepared by the EU’s Czech presidency.

The proposals to be discussed, nine in total, include temporary caps on the price of natural gas used for electricity generation as well as plans for a reduction of electricity consumption.

Member states are already forming alliances and preparing to back preferred strategies ahead of the emergency meeting.

The document highlights the need for a united European response to soaring energy prices, while also underlining the difficult winter that lies ahead. “The resilience of the European energy market will be tested in the coming winter,” the document notes.

The list of proposals to be discussed also includes a temporary cap on the price of imported natural gas from specific sources of origin, as well as temporary exclusion of natural gas power plants from energy exchange clearing prices.

 

European resolve for crisis solution containing gas prices

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The growing resolve of European officials to find solutions that could contain gas prices is already producing results, as highlighted by a significant price reduction of just over 30 percent over the past week.

Germany appears to have changed stance by joining EU member states of the south in their call for a cap on natural gas, now being examined by the European Commission following a delay of many months.

Germany’s public admission that a single European solution is needed to counter the energy crisis, an acknowledgment coming after the country previously blocked proposals forwarded by Europe’s south, has swiftly impacted energy markets.

Yesterday’s news of a new Russian gas supply disruption through Nord Stream I, under the pretext of maintenance requirements, did not prompt a further increase in gas prices, as would be expected, but, instead, resulted in a price reduction. The TTF index fell yesterday to 239 euros per MWh, down from a record level of 346 euros per MWh on August 26, a 31 percent drop over the one-week period.

This reduction has filtered through to today’s wholesale electricity prices around Europe. They fell to 635 euros per MWh in France, 571 euros per MWh in Germany, 661 euros per MWh in Italy, and 582 euros per MWh in Greece and Bulgaria. The price level for Greece is approximately 100 euros lower compared to yesterday.

 

EU exploring ways to counter skyrocketing natural gas prices

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The EU is preparing drastic energy policy changes in response to the economic impact prompted by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Europe’s determination for change is highlighted by a series of initiatives that have already surfaced, including the Repower EU package, announced this week, aiming to severely limit Europe’s reliance on Russian gas and limit gas consumption in general; proposals for price ceilings; and other measures, all of which will be discussed at an informal summit in Paris today.

Until now, measures called for by Europe’s south as means of tackling exorbitant energy prices pushed higher by the energy crisis of previous months, have been largely overlooked by the continent’s north.

However, more attention to these calls is now being paid by the north as the crisis drags on, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has pushed energy prices through the roof and begun to also trouble consumers in the north.

A proposal forwarded by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, who has called for price ceilings at the Dutch TTF exchange, as a response to record-high gas prices, is one of the subjects expected to be discussed at today’s meeting in France.

The Greek leader yesterday reminded of the wholesale gas price level just over a year ago, in February, 2021, at 30 euros per MWh, which, in Greek market terms, translates to wholesale electricity prices of 90 euros per MWh, about a quarter of the current level, at 349.80 euros per MWh.

Oil, gas prices surge to record levels, confirming Russia war market fears

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Oil and gas prices have reached unimaginable levels, breaking one record after another to cause the biggest market shock in decades and confirm fears of the extent of the impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would have on international energy markets.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine almost a fortnight ago, prices for electricity, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, as well as grains and virtually all other basic commodities have skyrocketed after stabilizing at elevated levels over many months.

Yesterday’s price surges in international energy markets were extraordinary. Natural gas futures contracts, set for delivery in April, reached a record high of 345 euros per MWh, up 79 percent in a day, before de-escalating to 215 euros per MWh at the end of trading.

The Brent crude oil price is now steadily over 120 dollars a barrel. It has been driven higher by media reports of a US plan to ban Russian oil and gas imports.

Such price levels, even if there are no further rises, will result in major inflationary pressure for the global economy.

According to a Bloomberg report, US president Joe Biden is examining the prospect of imposing an embargo on Russian oil, even without the participation of European allies.

Any European breakaway from Russian gas supply would require extreme measures from European governments and the energy sector to cover the resulting gap and ensure energy supply needs for consumers and enterprises are met, officials at French energy group Engie noted.

Highlighting the shock felt in markets around the world, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, remarked: “I’m lost for words.”

 

European social unrest feared as crisis is expected to deepen

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Since its outbreak seven months ago, the energy crisis, adding to the economic hardship prompted by the pandemic, has now been pushed to even further extremes by Russia’s war on Ukraine, as higher energy prices over the long term appear likely.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine – following months of increasing gas prices paid by European consumers for Russian gas supplied by Gazprom – is driving energy prices even higher and, by extension, generating further inflationary pressure to limit the purchasing power of Europeans, a catalyst for social unrest.

Under the current market conditions, energy debt will surely rise around Europe, including Greece, as consumers struggle to meet extremely higher energy costs. Also, many energy companies will struggle to stay in business.

Social unrest and a new round of Euroscepticism can be expected once consumers fully realize that higher energy costs are not just ephemeral.

Just one year ago, wholesale electricity prices in Europe averaged between 50 and 60 euros per MWh. In Greece, annual electricity consumption totaling 50 to 55 TWh was worth approximately 3 billion euros.

Yesterday, in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, natural gas prices climbed as high as 144 euros per MWh, before settling at 120 euros per MWh. Natural gas prices of such levels result in wholesale electricity prices of between 250 and 300 euros per MWh, roughly five times higher than a year ago.

Should such price levels remain, Greece’s annual electricity cost of 3 billion euros, until the start of 2021, will become a sweet memory of the past. The country’s additional electricity cost could end up being worth as much as 11 billion euros, if wholesale electricity prices remain at levels of between 200 and 250 euros per MWh.

Factoring in the additional money needed by consumers for heating costs – petrol and natural gas – only exacerbates the problem.

European gas reserves rise slightly, helped by LNG inflow, weather

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Europe’s natural gas reserves have risen slightly, helped by the arrival of LNG tankers at European shores in recent weeks and, possibly more crucially, the mild winter weather experienced around the continent during the festive period, latest data has shown.

Gas deposit deficits have narrowed since December 24, while inflow marginally exceeded consumption between December 30 and January 1, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

This trend is definitely beneficial for Europe ahead of the further winter period, improving reserve levels for greater sufficiency until March.

Natural gas prices in Europe dipped to 66 euros per MWh yesterday before rebounding to 80 euros per MWh.

At present, it is estimated that 46 American LNG tankers are bound for Europe carrying a combined quantity of approximately 4.1 billion cubic meters. It remains to be seen if gas prices can keep falling.

 

Markets challenged by nuclear withdrawals, gas crisis, demand

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A series of unfavorable developments, including nuclear reactor withdrawals in Germany and Belgium, persistently high natural gas prices and strong energy demand threaten will further test the European grid, threatening to prolong the energy crisis.

The withdrawal of nuclear reactors in Germany and Belgium, combined with skyrocketing natural gas prices, will negatively impact Europe’s electricity market, even in countries where natural gas holds a small share of the energy mix, as markets are interconnected, enabling a knock-on effect.

Germany has announced a withdrawal, today, of nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 4.25 GW and remaining capacities, totaling about 4.3 GW, by end-2022. Overall, this phase-out represents 12 percent of the country’s electricity supply.

In addition, Germany’s new coalition intends to reassess the country’s existing decarbonization plan, its phase-out of fossil-fuel plants running until 2038, with the aim of shortening this procedure t0 2030, if possible.

Belgium is headed in the same direction. The country’s nuclear reactor phase-out runs until 2025. The country’s Doel 3 facility is planned to shut down in October, 2022, followed by Tihange 2 in early 2023.

Electricity demand in ten European countries is forecast to increase by 2 percent, or 5 GW, on average, in 2022, according to a Platts Analytics projection.

CO2, natural gas prices soaring, no end in sight for energy crisis

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CO2 emission right prices climbed to a new record level yesterday, peaking at over 90 euros per ton before retreating to approximately 80 euros per ton, while, similarly, natural gas prices once again rose to over 100 euros per MWh after having eased to levels of up to 85 euros per MWh late in November.

These latest price trends dispel any projections of an imminent end in the energy crisis as both CO2 emission right prices and natural gas prices are pivotal factors in the determination of wholesale electricity prices.

The energy crisis appears set to remain for at least this winter, which will hurt economies and increase inflation rates, reemerging as a serious concern in the EU after many years.

Wholesale electricity prices remain well over 200 euros per MWh throughout Europe.

In Greece, today’s wholesale electricity price is 231.83 euros per MWh, with the December average for the country currently at 226.99 euros per MWh, slightly below the November average.

The highest price in Europe for today was registered in Switzerland, at 270.25 euros per MWh, followed by Italy at 256.32 euros per MWh, France at 247.19 euros per MWh, Serbia at 246.45 euros per MWh, and Croatia and Slovenia, both registering 244.25 euros per MWh.

 

Natural gas a leading issue at upcoming Greek-Russian talks

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Energy matters, especially sharply risen natural prices, will be high on the agenda at a forthcoming 13th Greek-Russian Joint Interministerial Committee scheduled to take place in Moscow on November 29 and 30.

Gas utility DEPA’s current contract with Russia’s Gazprom runs until 2026 but the two sides renegotiate, each year, the details of its pricing formula and a take-or-pay clause incorporated into the agreement.

DEPA’s supply agreement with Gazprom is entirely oil-indexed but an extraordinary revision was made for 2020 and 2021 as oil prices were extremely high, well over LNG price levels. A large proportion of Russian gas received by DEPA was indexed with the TTF gas hub in the Netherlands.

The situation has overturned this year, LNG prices rising well above oil prices. As a result, Gazprom wants to avoid a fully oil-indexed agreement for gas supply to DEPA in 2022 and prefers a hybrid solution that would partially index its gas prices with the TTF.

DEPA and Gazprom have yet to reach an agreement, but the two sides will need to converge by the end of this month, which would enable the Greek gas company to set prices and establish deals with customers in the Greek market.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is scheduled to travel to Moscow on December 8 for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first direct meeting between the two leaders since Mitsotakis assumed office in July, 2019.

 

DEPA in gas supplier talks for ’22 prices, Gazprom deal crucial

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Gas company DEPA is currently engaged in negotiations with its suppliers for agreements  covering 2022, its talks with main supplier Gazprom being the most crucial. The pricing formula to be agreed on by DEPA with Gazprom will greatly shape the prices to be offered by the Greek company to its customers – electricity producers, industrial producers and retail energy suppliers.

Though there are signs of a possible price de-escalation, gas prices remain elevated. The percentage of Gazprom supply to be oil-indexed will be a pivotal factor in price levels offered by DEPA to customers.

DEPA has already reached an agreement with Algeria’s Sonetrach for a one-year extension to a deal expiring at the end of 2021, energypress sources have informed. A hybrid pricing formula primarily based on the Dutch TTF index has been agreed to, the sourced added.

Greece’s agreement with Turkey’s BOTAS, for natural gas originating from Azerbaijan, is set to expire at the end of this year, but no moves have been made for a renewal as Azeri gas has been supplied by Azerbaijan Gas Supply to the Greek market since the end of 2020 through the new TAP route. This supply contract, fixed and not subject to negotiation, is valid until 2044.

DEPA’s pending agreement with Russia’s Gazprom Export, its main supplier, is the most crucial. It expires in 2026 but is subject to annual talks concerning pricing formula and take-or-play clause revisions.

DEPA’s agreement with Gazprom is currently entirely oil-indexed. The the two sides had agreed to an extraordinary revision for 2020 and 2021 indexing prices with the TTF gas index as oil prices were considerably higher. The opposite is now the case, with LNG prices well above oil prices. Gazprom officials now prefer prices to not be fully indexed to oil.