europe

Europe favorably placed ahead of next winter’s gas storage refill

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Favorable conditions last winter have placed Europe in an advantageous position of being able to fill, to full capacity, its natural gas storage facilities even if Russian supply is completely cut off.

Europe needs to store away approximately 35 billion cubic meters of natural gas between now and the end of October, well below the average figure of roughly 55 bcm over the past decade, in order to fill its energy storage facilities at 90 percent of capacity, the European goal set for next winter.

A year ago, Europe needed to purchase approximately 70 bcm of natural gas to fill its storage facilities. This was one of the factors that pushed prices up to all-time highs.

Fortune went Europe’s way last winter as temperatures remained mostly mild, significantly subduing energy usage, while China’s zero-Covid policy enabled the continent to import substantial LNG quantities which, otherwise, would not have been available.

As a result of these factors, Europe’s gas storage facilities were left 55 percent full by the end of last winter, well above the previous decade’s average of 33 percent.

Despite the favorable news for Europe, the market remains susceptible to dangers as a result of increased natural gas usage in the industrial sector and revitalized demand in Asia, factors that have led analysts to forecast a wholesale gas price rebound that could exceed 100 euros per MWh.

Also, the milder weather conditions could have negative impact in the long run. Low rainfall and snowfall in many parts of Europe could lead to a hot and dry summer, increasing energy demand for cooling purposes, and prices. This could make Europe’s energy-storage refilling effort slightly more challenging.

Local tariffs down in March, reflecting European trend

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As was the case in most parts of Europe last month, retail electricity prices also fell in Greece in March, monthly research conducted by HEPI, the Household Energy Price Index, covering 33 European cities, has shown.

The study attributed this price drop to lower wholesale electricity prices, prompted by mild weather conditions and lower demand, as well as subsidy support measures adopted by governments throughout Europe to ease the energy crisis’ cost burden on households.

In Athens, the average price of electricity tariffs, both fixed and floating, dropped by 1 percent in March, compared to February, reaching 30.48 cents per KWh, above the EU average of 27.47 cents per KWh.

According to the HEPI study, electricity tariffs in March also fell in Rome (-14%), Vienna (-8%), Talin (-7%), Copenhagen, Dublin, Madrid, Riga and Stockholm, all down 5%, while, like in Athens, tariffs also fell by 1% in Berlin, London and Oslo.

On the contrary, some cities registered electricity tariff increases. They rose 14% in Helsinki, 2% in Nicosia, and 1% in Brussels and Paris.

Athens’ average price for floating tariffs was 26.38 cents per KWh, well below an average of 32.51 cents per KWh resulting from a sample of 15 European cities, the HEPI study showed.

Athens promoting domestic RES equipment production

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The government is promoting support programs for Greek production of RES-sector equipment, from batteries to energy storage systems, production and assembly of solar panels, as well as equipment concerning the hydrogen and electromobility sectors, energy minister Kostas Skrekas revealed to energypress in a wide-ranging interview held as part of the recent Power & Gas Forum in Athens.

In the interview, given to energypress editor-in-chief Thodoris Panagoulis and Capital’s managing editor Haris Floudopoulos, the minister, amongst other things, referred to the finalization of the National Energy and Climate Plan, which, he stressed, will be set within a more realistic framework, based on respective adjustments at European level.

Skrekas also referred extensively to developments in the retail and wholesale electricity markets, noting the supply code must be changed. He also pointed out the government’s imminent support to energy-intensive industry through a program promoting self-production and energy storage.

The minister highlighted the government’s emphasis on green energy, noting Greece, for the first time, has a RES-sector advantage over European countries of the north and must utilize the country’s ample sunshine to the benefit of household and professional energy consumers.

“The strategy we have developed over the past three years, and for going forward, is about the rapid penetration of renewables in our energy mix. Of course, in order to achieve this, reforms were needed and many steps still need to be taken,” the minister noted, adding further development of RES units and storage, as well as networks, must be addressed to reach a point where all energy consumed is derived from renewables.

Greece is playing a leading renewables role on many fronts, the minister said, making note of the country’s greater licensing speed, highlighted by doubled installed RES capacity within three to four years, from 5-5.5 GW in 2018 to over 10 GW in 2022, which, he added, has resulted in doubled electricity generation from renewable sources.

Asso.subsea joins forces for GAP Interconnection

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ATHENS – March 28, 2023 – The GAP Consortium and Asso.subsea have announced the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for cooperation on the two-gigawatt (2 GW) electrical interconnection between Greece and Egypt (Greece-Africa Power Interconnector – GAP).

GAP project, founded by the Eunice Energy Group, is leading the transnational consortium between Greece and Egypt that aims to contribute to regional energy security and stability by facilitating intercontinental clean energy transfer. As part of the consortium, Asso.subsea, a leader in submarine cable installation, protection, repair, and support operations, has established a constantly updated long track record of participations, not only in domestic, but also in worldwide projects. It will be providing expertise in design and construction guidance for the project.

Andreas Borgeas, Greece-Africa Power (GAP) CEO said: “This is a partnership that significantly strengthens the international consortium for the construction of GAP. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Asso.subsea and the Consortium is a step further to ensure energy independence for Greece and Europe.” 

Alexandros Tziotakis, General Manager of Αsso.Subsea Limited added: “We are delighted with the opportunity to work with the GAP Consortium and to contribute together to the effective implementation of a critical infrastructure for the wider region. The subsea interconnector is considered to be vitally important for the Greek and European energy market.”

About Αsso.subsea

Asso.subsea Limited is a subsea utilities’ installation contractor offering offshore solutions on a worldwide basis with more than 40 years of experience in the offshore industry market. It is the technical and engineering division of the Greek-owned ASSO Group of Companies. The latter wholly owns a fleet of specialized in offshore works vessels and equipment and a technical base in Attica, Greece with an in-house R&D for the design and production of tools.  The ASSO Group of Companies provides for an in-house engineering offering tailor-made solutions as well as specialized personnel for the offshore execution and support during operations. Asso.subsea with a plan for major investments in assets and manpower is a key player in the offshore energy market aiming to a continuously increased capacity and capabilities.  www.assogroup.com.

Greece to back gas usage cut extension at Energy Council

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Greek energy minister Kostas Skrekas is expected to back a European Commission proposal for a 12-month extension of a measure supporting a 15 percent reduction of natural gas usage at today’s Energy Council of EU energy ministers.

The group of 27 energy ministers will seek to reach a political agreement on the measure’s proposed extension, from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, so that Europe may also be prepared for next winter should EU member states face gas supply issues or even disruptions.

This measure, first introduced on August 1, 2022, is set to expire in a few days’ time, on March 31. It called for a 15 percent reduction of gas usage during this period, compared to the previous five-year average during the equivalent eight-month periods. Greece exceeded the measure’s target by reducing its natural gas usage by 20.9 percent.

The measure’s gas usage restrictions are voluntary but would become binding should higher-alert conditions come about.

Europe’s natural gas savings stand to reach 60 billion cubic meters over the next twelve months if the EU’s 27 energy ministers agree on a one-year extension of the measure for an annual 15 percent reduction of natural gas usage.

Skrekas, Greece’s energy minister, also plans to present, at today’s Energy Council, the country’s proposal for an EU power grid capacity boost and expansion to facilitate electricity flow from south to north, as part of a wider plan envisaging RES flow from north Africa to Greece and the rest of Europe, via the western Balkans.

 

Overdevelopment danger for LNG terminals in Europe, IEEFA warns

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Major LNG terminals being developed in various parts of Europe, including Greece and Germany, in response to reduced Russian gas supply, could fail to achieve full commercial potential as the continent may end up possessing a far greater number of such facilities than required by 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned.

If REPower EU objectives are attained and Turkish gas demand remains steady, then European demand for LNG will be restricted to a level of just 150 billion cubic meters in 2030, down from 175 bcm in 2022, IEEFA pointed out. At such a level in 2030, LNG terminals in Europe would operate at less than 40 percent of capacity.

IEEFA also stressed that European gas operators have an incentive to over-expand their infrastructure and asset base in order to deliver profits to shareholders, even if projects do not end up being fully utilized.

Existing legislation provides operators with guaranteed revenues collected through tariffs, IEEFA pointed out. Evidence strongly suggests the Russian attack on Ukraine has accelerated Europe’s energy transition by dramatically boosting the penetration of green technologies that reduce demand for gas and LNG, the institute added.

 

GAP Interconnector promising additional Greek-Egyptian grid link

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The GAP Interconnector project, planned to link Egypt with Greece, via Crete, promises to serve as a further step towards transforming Greece into an exporter of green energy to the rest of Europe, officials of the Eunice Group, heading the project, budgeted at 1.3 billion euros, have highlighted at a news conference.

It represents an additional Greek-Egyptian grid interconnection project, following the GREGY Interconnector, a 3.5 billion-euro project being promoted by Elica, a subsidiary of the Copelouzos group.

The GAP Interconnector project promises to reinforce Greece’s geostrategic role, making it a transmission hub to the rest of Europe for RES-generated electricity from Egypt, Andreas Borgeas, the project’s chief executive and a former California Senator, told journalists.

A feasibility study has already been conducted for the GAP Interconnector, as have oceanographic studies to map the areas concerning the project’s route, the Borgeas informed.

Two cables to offer a 2,000-MW capacity and run from coastal Matruh in Egypt to Crete’s Atherinolakko, a distance of approximately 450 kilometers, will serve as the project’s backbone. Converter stations will be installed at both these locations.

The project, whose subsea cable installations will reach as deep as 4,445 meters off Crete and 3,500 meters off Egypt, was described as “challenging” by Borgeas, the project chief, who added advanced deep-sea cable installation technology is now available.

The aim is to establish a multinational consortium for the GAP Interconnector project and induct, as a first step, the US company McDermott, one of the world’s biggest developers of subsea projects, Borgeas informed. French, Greek and Italian companies are also expected to soon join this consortium, the official added.

The GAP Interconnector project and the GREGY Interconnector are not rival projects but they will compete for points concerning PCI-PMI lists, Borgeas pointed out.

A direct, straight-line connection from Egypt to Crete planned for the GAP Interconnector offers it a comparative advantage as it is shorter and subsequently lower in cost, Borgeas noted, adding the project lies entirely within the boundaries of the Greek-Egyptian exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

It is planned to be complemented by the Southern Aegean Interconnector (SAI), a 1.5 billion-euro project to connect Athens, the Dodecanese islands, and Crete.

European electricity prices fall, demand down, RES output up

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European energy market price levels fell last week, influenced by lower demand as well as increased renewable energy output by wind and solar farms.

Energy markets across southeast Europe recorded noteworthy price reductions last week that averaged 17.44 percent, compared to a week earlier. Favorable weather conditions in this region led to a 60 percent increase in RES output, wind farms being the main contributor.

Serbia posted the biggest week-to-week price reduction in southeast Europe, a 21.34 percent drop in wholesale electricity prices, followed by Greece, where the week’s drop averaged 20.31 percent. Bulgaria and Romania both recorded average price reductions of 19.16 percent last week. Prices in Turkey have also been on a downward trajectory.

In central Europe, spot markets fell to weekly averages of less than 135 euros per MWh. The weekly average, for this region, was lowest in Germany, at 119.05 euros MWh, a 12.61 percent reduction compared to a week earlier as a result of lower demand and increased wind energy output.

Central Europe’s highest wholesale electricity prices last week were recorded in Switzerland, at 134.48 euros per MWh, despite an 11.22 percent reduction compared to a week earlier. France followed with a weekly average price of 131.07 euros per MWh, driven higher by power utility EDF strikes that reduced output at nuclear power plants, covering roughly 70 percent of the country’s energy mix.

Analysts expect new round of gas price increases this year

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Analysts are projecting an eventual rise in gas prices over the next few months as a result of the combined effect of several factors, the main one being Europe’s almost entire dependence, these days, on imported LNG.

This LNG dependence, following Europe’s drift away from Russia, along with Europe’s limited LNG gasification infrastructure, until at least 2025, will inevitably lead to price increases at some point in 2023, analysts have noted.

Natural gas prices have been falling in recent times and are expected to, once again, drop below the price level of coal. This price descent, analysts believe, will reignite industrial activity in Europe, boosting gas demand.

Also, Chinese production, currently operating at below full capacity as a result of the country’s strict adherence, until recently, to a zero-Covid policy, is also expected to get back into top gear within 2023.

In addition, if Europe avoids recession, then global gas orders will skyrocket.

Taking these factors into account, Europe needs to maintain links with pipeline gas supply if energy security is to be ensured on the continent, analysts have noted.

This highlights the significance of projects such as the East Med gas pipeline plan, now seeming to be back in favor. It promises to connect Israel, Cyprus and Greece, over a total distance of 2,000 kilometers, before crossing to Italy via the Poseidon pipeline, a 210-kilometer stretch.

TTF drop over, gas prices on the rebound, analysts forecast

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Natural gas prices, up 20 percent over the past week on levels that had plunged to less than 65 euros per MWh in the last month, are establishing a new upward trajectory, market experts believe.

Colder weather anticipated around Europe over the next few months, a slight drop in gas storage facility reserves around the continent, as well as slightly higher prices offered by Asian buyers, already attracting some LNG shipments to China, now moving again after letting go of its zero-Covid policy, are the key factors seen putting an end to the recent decline in gas prices.

The combined effect of these factors is expected to maintain natural gas prices at levels of between 70 and 80 euros per MWh. Natural gas was priced at 74.80 euros per MWh on the TTF index yesterday, a rise based on expectation rather than any substantial change in current market conditions.

Natural gas storage capacities in Europe have now dropped to an average of 83.5 percent after reaching levels of 95.5 percent of capacity in November.

Though gas prices are currently roughly 40 percent below levels of 120 to 130 euros per MWh recorded this time last year, market volatility is expected to remain a concern in 2023, market analysts told energypress.

Price levels, they have forecast, will soon climb back up to levels of more than 100 euros per MWh before falling again next autumn, when gas storage facilities have been refilled to 90 percent of capacity.

PM hopeful of a European gas price cap agreement

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Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, on his way to today’s Council summit of EU leaders, expressed hope that a European agreement on a gas price cap could be achieved either today or next Monday, the latest, when the EU’s energy ministers are scheduled to meet.

The Greek leader stressed it is absolutely essential that Europe sends a clear message to energy markets as well as to Russia by underlining that Moscow’s exploitation of natural gas as a tool to burden European citizens and businesses will not be tolerated.

“We are close to being able to impose a price cap on gas. Our arguments are now known to all member states and I believe that, one way or another, we will find the necessary majorities to move in this direction,” Mitsotakis noted.

Greece supports the implementation of a gas price cap at 200 euros per MWh or less, applicable at all European hubs with an accompanying limit-up mechanism. Though well below the European Commission’s initial proposal of 275 euros per MWh, it seems to have gained increased acceptance by fellow EU member states.

However, a group of six EU member states – Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Denmark, Estonia and Luxembourg – remains skeptical, fearing a low-level price cap could prompt market instability.

“In any case, regardless of European decisions, the Greek government is continuing to take all measures needed to support Greek households and businesses,” Mitsotakis noted, pointing out that 900 million euros in state budget money will be used in December to support low-income households and offer allowances for heating oil purchases.

International gas prices lowered by favorable conditions

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More favorable market conditions of late have prompted a de-escalation of international gas prices, currently on a downward trajectory. This morning, the international price for natural gas reached as low as 107.355 euros per MWh, a new four-month low.

Market officials explained that LNG is currently available in abundance with some tankers unable to secure delivery destinations as Europe’s storage facilities are close to full.

At the same time, demand for Russian gas in Asia, primarily China – where Russia has turned to as a result of restricted exports to Europe – has fallen significantly. Mild weather conditions in Europe at present have helped contain demand for gas.

This gas price drop will not become fully apparent in the retail market until mid-November – unless a new price surge is experienced – as prices are set based on the previous month’s prices.

“The Energy Crisis in Europe: Myths and Truths” – A new book by Energypress journalist H. Aposporis

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The energy crisis has hit us hard, regardless of profession, age, area or income. It tests consumers’ endurance and complicates producers’ choices, while threatening the entire economy with depression.

At the same time, it changes things inside the energy sphere itself, with effects that may end up being permanent, with dangers and plenty of redefinitions. It sets the public discourse about the connection between energy, the environment and growth to a whole new level. It creates new winners and losers globally.

The goal of this new book titled “The Energy Crisis in Europe: Myths and Truths” by Energypress journalist, H. Aposporis, is to present in a simple and understandable way for the average citizen what led us to the energy crisis, without requiring any special knowledge of the subject.

We are going to see what went right, what was at fault and where there was simply bad luck.

Moreover, the book records the chronicle of the crisis itself and its effects so far for Europe.

Last but not least, there is an attempt to foresee the next day, both immediate and long term through spotting new trends, future threats and opportunities, while examining different scenarios.

You can find the book on Amazon and Kobo in ebook form.

DESFA market test for gas grid lift includes 3 pipeline doubles

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Gas grid operator DESFA has begun preparing a market test for prospective gas transmission system expansion projects, based on a requirement set by RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, as part of its approval of the projects.

The market test’s details are expected to be completed by the end of this month. A related event will then be staged to update gas transmission system users on the market test’s process as well as projects to be offered for capacity reservations.

RAE’s market test requirement for these projects has been incorporated into its approval of DESFA’s ten-year development plan covering 2022 to 2031, as the authority wants the operator to gauge the level of interest and need concerning the gas transmission system’s expansion.

According to energypress sources, three new gas pipelines, to serve as doubles at sections of the existing infrastructure, will be included in the market test.

One of the three pipelines is planned to complement infrastructure covering parts of the wider Athens area, a second pipeline is envisaged as a double for a pipeline running from Athens to Thessaloniki, and a third pipeline is planned to run as a double alongside a line from Thessaloniki to Komotini, northeastern Greece.

The EU’s decision to gradually diminish its reliance on Russian gas is changing the continent’s gas supply map. Subsequently, gas entry points from the continent’s south are now becoming more crucial, giving rise to the need for gas infrastructure boosts in Greece.

 

European action taken to avoid energy-led bankruptcy crisis

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Energy retailer bankruptcies in countries such as the UK and energy group nationalizations in France and Germany, worrying developments of recent months, have emerged as a severe warning that a 2008 Lehman Brothers-type bankruptcy crisis in Europe is possible.

The energy crisis in Europe has placed the entire economy in peril as it could prompt a series of devastating knock-on effects.

Concern is high as a result of the high exposure of energy companies to margin calls, serving as guarantees that exist to ensure that if one counterparty goes bankrupt, the other will collect money it is owed.

The problem is that wildly fluctuating electricity and natural gas prices have forced companies to drastically increase their guarantee sums, even if just temporarily, a demand greatly pressuring their finances.

Highlighting this increased pressure, Greek power utility PPC’s chief executive Giorgos Stassis recently noted that PPC needed – for the aforementioned reasons – to commit one billion euros one day in August before being reimbursed half this amount shortly afterwards, when prices eased.

Margin-call demands have a multiplying effect that could turn the energy crisis into a debt crisis, as was the case with the financial crisis of 2008. This explains why European governments are rushing to offer capital guarantees and liquidity to energy companies in an effort to avoid bankruptcies caused by an inability to meet current needs.

It is estimated that such support measures in Europe will cost in excess of 1.5 trillion euros and could reach as high as two trillion euros.

 

 

 

Worst-case natural gas scenario for Europe becoming a reality

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The worst-case scenario for natural gas supply in Europe appears to be turning into a reality. If Russian gas supply to Germany via the Nord Stream I pipeline – now closed temporarily for repair work, according to Russia’s Gazprom – ends up being stopped, long term, the effects, skyrocketing prices and energy shortages, would swiftly spread across Europe.

The pipeline’s shut-off would leave no supply route unaffected, including Turk Stream, a key pipeline route for supply of Russian gas to Greece.

Greek government officials discussed concerns over such a scenario during a meeting yesterday at the Prime Minister’s office, while, on a wider level, the clouds are darkening over Europe, as Moscow appears increasingly likely to keep Nord Stream I shut off.

If so, Greece will need to activate its national emergency plan, whose measures include further LNG shipments, diesel conversion of natural gas-fueled power stations, and increased lignite power generation.

Even so, the national emergency plan may not suffice to fully cover the country’s energy demand should cold winter conditions be prolonged, a minister who took part in yesterday’s meeting at the Prime Minister’s office acknowledged to energypress.

In Greece, the wholesale price of natural gas rose sharply yesterday to 280 euros per MWh, impacting electricity prices.

Athens among 4 European cities with July price cuts

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Household electricity prices in Athens fell by 7 percent in July, month to month, making the Greek capital one of just four European cities to register price reductions last month, a latest monthly survey conducted by HEPI, the Household Energy Price Index, has shown.

Retail electricity prices in Athens dropped to 0.218 euros per KWh, below the European average of 0.284 euros per KWh and slightly above the average retail electricity price for 33 cities included in the study, which ended July at 0.217 euros.

Athens was ranked 21st among the HEPI survey’s 33 participating cities in terms of retail electricity cost.

The Greek government’s electricity subsidy program for June and July exceeded 730 million euros per month and will cost over 1.1 billion euros for August.

Besides Athens, three other European cities experienced retail electricity price reductions in July: Vienna (-20%); Madrid (-12%); and Rome (-10%).

Europe’s highest retail electricity prices were recorded in London (0.630 euros per KWh); Copenhagen (0.530 euros per KWh); Rome (0.459 euros per KWh); Amsterdam (0.419 euros per KWh) and Prague (0.409 euros per KWh).

July’s biggest retail electricity price increases in Europe, according to the HEPI survey, were registered by: Vilnius (44%); Amsterdam (37%); London (25%); and Sofia (24%).

European gas storage units nearly 70% full, on course for October target

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Europe’s gas storage facilities are estimated to be close to 70 percent full in early August, according to data provided by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), representing the continent’s gas infrastructure operators.

Europe’s gas storage units continued being filled at a rapid rate in late July, despite the reduction of Gazprom’s gas supply through the Nord Stream I pipeline, now operating at just 20 percent of capacity.

Given the continent’s current gas storage levels, European authorities are confident an 80 percent objective can be achieved by early October. However, storage level discrepancies between EU member states remains a challenge that needs to be dealt with.

German gas storage units are now 70 percent full, while the level in Italy is higher, at 73 percent. On the contrary, gas storage facility levels are far lower elsewhere, registering 48 percent in Bulgaria, 24 percent in Ukraine and 53 percent in Croatia.

Tourism boom revenue will help fund winter’s energy subsidies

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The Greek tourism industry’s strong revenue figures being generated this summer, which could exceed those of the record-breaking summer of 2019 if July’s heightened activity is sustained through August, will prove invaluable in financing energy subsidies needed in coming months.

At the current rate, Greece’s tourism industry could contribute between 19 and 20 billion euros to the budget, well over the budget forecast of 16 to 17 billion euros.

International authorities, including Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, are warning of even tougher times ahead.

European countries greatly dependent on Russian natural gas are scrambling for solutions ahead of next winter. Germany is seeking nuclear-energy assistance from France. Chancellor Olaf Scholtz has reiterated energy prices will remain high for some time yet. Italian energy company Enel has warned customers that it cannot guarantee gas and electricity prices will continue to be offered under current agreements.

Latest calculations indicate that Greece’s electricity bill subsidies for households and businesses could soon exceed one billion euros per month.

The country’s electricity subsidy cost for August is expected to greatly exceed July’s figure of 722 million euros, which was based on a cost of 240 euros per MWh, now over 300 euros per MWh.

 

Brussels report highlights EU’s alarming energy cost increase

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The cost of wholesale electricity in the EU rose by over 400 percent in the first quarter of 2022, compared to the equivalent period a year earlier, while gas imports during this period cost the EU a total of 78 billion euros, of which 27 billion euros concerned Russian natural gas quantities, a report published by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy has shown.

Households and businesses across the continent have faced unprecedented natural gas cost increases following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February. Consequently, the TTF index skyrocketed to peak at 212 euros per MWh on March 7.

The EU adopted a series of sanctions primarily concerning the energy sector as a result of the Russian attack, the report noted. Also, in May, the EU approved its REPower EU plan, designed to gradually end Europe’s reliance on Russian fossil fuels, bolster the continent’s energy security, and support the green-energy transition.

Imports of Russian gas fell by 71 percent via Belarus and 41 percent via Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022, compared to the equivalent period a year earlier. Gas inflow from the Nord Stream pipeline linking Russia with Germany fell by 60 percent in early June.

Europe’s wholesale electricity price averaged 201 euros per MWh in the first quarter of 2022, 281 percent higher than the equivalent period in 2021, the report noted.

Spain and Portugal registered the highest wholesale electricity price increases during this period, a 411 percent rise, followed by Greece (343%) and France (336%), the report noted.

Europe on edge as Russia limits supply, fiscal revisions needed

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Emergency measures are being prepared around Europe, confronting reduced Russian gas supplies and fearing even greater cuts. It remains a mystery if the Nord Steam I gas pipeline – linking Russia with Germany, and by extension, other markets – will reopen on July 21. The pipeline was shut yesterday for a 10-day period to undergo maintenance, according to Russian officials.

Anything is possible from July 21 onwards. Russian gas supply through Nord Steam I could increase or may dry up completely.

In response, German officials are preparing to reactivate coal-fired power stations to make up for energy-source insufficiencies prompted by Russia’s reduced gas supply, while, energy-consumption restrictions, including an order urging household members to take fewer hot showers, could also be introduced, if needed.

In France, industries are turning to oil for energy, while Italian oil and gas company ENI has announced Gazprom will cut its gas supply by a further one third.

In Greece, the fiscal pressure caused by the months-long energy crisis, exacerbated by Russia’s war on Ukraine, is seen resulting in a budget deficit of 2 percent in 2022. A fiscal adjustment will be needed to transform this deficit into a 1 percent primary surplus in 2023.

Such a fiscal improvement, however, may not be possible given the current gas and electricity price levels. The government’s electricity-bill subsidy support for consumers is costing between 800 million and one billion euros a month.

 

Nord Stream I maintenance closure sparks unrest in Europe

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Europe today enters a ten-day period of heightened energy-crisis suspense as Moscow’s real intentions over the Nord Steam I gas pipeline, just closed for annual maintenance, will not be known until July 21, when the subsea pipeline, running from Russia to Germany, is scheduled to reopen.

European leaders are worried the pipeline’s ten-day closure could develop into an indefinite closure, the worst-case scenario. Natural gas prices, as a result, are continuing to escalate.

In France, the country’s power utility EDF will be nationalized to help the company ride out the European energy crisis and invest in atomic plants. In Germany, the emergency effort includes electricity consumption restrictions as well as rescue plans for beleaguered companies, among them the Uniper energy group.

All is possible should the Nord Steam I pipeline not reopen on July 21, from a deep recession in Germany, an intensified energy crisis throughout Europe, company bankruptcies, electricity and natural gas rationing, and further cost-of-living increases.

Two in ten enterprises around Europe are currently battling to stay afloat, according to the European Investment Bank.

Greece, Europe fear impact of heatwaves, Russian gas cuts

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The country and Europe, as a whole, are bracing for even greater energy-system pressure ahead of anticipated summer heatwaves around the continent and the threat of intensified natural gas shortages.

The upcoming temporary closure of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, linking Russia with Germany, for annual maintenance work between July 11 and 21, according to Nord Stream AG, the gas pipeline operator, has European officials concerned the move could be a precursor for a full disruption. This would have a knock-on effect on natural gas prices all the way down to the Balkans.

Under the currently mild market conditions of pre-heatwave low demand, electricity prices in Greece are at 323.78 euros per MWh today. Officials dread the impact on prices of higher heatwave-induced electricity demand, combined with further Russian gas supply cuts to Europe.

At this stage, there is no way of knowing if Greece will be able to continue importing electricity from its northern neighbors if further Russian gas supply cuts prompt a wider shortage. In such a case, neighboring countries, like Greece, could look to fully cover domestic demand before thinking about exporting electricity.

Greek electricity producers are currently exporting considerable quantities to Bulgaria, Albania and Italy, driven by high prices fetched. Prices for electricity exports to Italy today are at 418 euros per MWh. However, electricity exporters may be forced to disrupt these sales in the event of an acute energy crisis in the Greek market.

 

Greece envisioned as gas supply solution in Europe, Balkans

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Greece is seen as a natural gas supply solution by Balkan and European countries, a Regional Task Force meeting in Sofia, staged within the framework of the EU Energy Platform –  formed to help establish common natural gas and hydrogen markets – has made apparent.

The Sofia meetings agenda focused on the search of natural gas supply solutions given an anticipated demand increase in Europe, including the continent’s southeast, Mihalis Thomadakis, Director of Strategy and Management at gas grid operator DESFA, who participated in the Sofia meeting, has told an ensuing industry event, Athens Energy Dialogues.

He was a member of the Greek delegation in Sofia led by Nektaria Karakatsani, an energy ministry expert on energy policy matters.

Delegations representing Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Moldova also took part at the Regional Task Force meeting in Sofia.

Thomadakis, the DESFA official, underlined that gas network upgrades need to be developed as quickly as possible in order to meet new needs emerging.

Besides the EU Energy Platform, established in April as part of Europe’s plan for a swift end to its reliance on Russian natural gas, the European Commission, in collaboration with the International Energy Agency, has also formed the Technical Support Instrument, a project already involving seventeen EU member states, for the same purpose.

The TSI project is promoting energy source diversification and transmission, biomethane production, international hydrogen trade, roof-mounted solar energy installations, energy efficiency measures, swifter RES licensing procedures, innovative hydrogen solutions, as well as RES projects for the industrial sector.

 

Europe on edge, tested by Putin’s ruble payment demand

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Tension in Europe has risen with signs of disorientation emerging over Russian president Vladimir Putin’s demand for ruble-currency payments to cover Russian natural gas supply.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to Moscow, initially agreed on this payment term for Russian gas supply, but this was swiftly denied by the chancellery.

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi abruptly rejected Putin’s ruble-based payment plan for Russian gas supply, while Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called on Europe to impose an embargo on Moscow and follow his country’s example by stopping all Russian energy imports until the end of the year.

Europe is on high alert. Reliance on Russian energy reaches as high as 80 percent in Austria. Germany’s dependence on Russian energy is also high, at 55 percent.

Both countries have taken steps for gas rationing over the payment stand-off with Russia, fearing, like all of Europe, a halt in energy deliveries from Russia because of the dispute over payments.

Robert Habeck, Germany’s federal minister for economic affairs and climate action, has called on citizens to use electricity as moderately as possible.

Should Putin take the dreaded step and cut energy supply to Europe, distribution of existing natural gas reserves, as well as supply from non-Russian sources, will need to be prioritized, with preference for hospitals, power stations and crucial industries, needed to avoid economic collapse.

If European governments are forced to announce a state of emergency, an electricity rationing plan will need to be implemented for all households. The UK was forced to adopt such an extreme measure, for fuel, during the oil crisis in 1973.

In Greece, a halt in Russian natural gas supply would stop economic activity in just a few days. The country’s daily gas consumption reaches approximately 200,000 MWh, of which 115,000 MWh is supplied by Russia.

Additional LNG shipments in April; the mooring of an FSRU at the Revythoussa islet LNG terminal, just off Athens, for a capacity increase; full-capacity generation at the country’s lignite-fired power stations; as well as an agreement with Italy to ensure storage capacity at the neighboring country’s gas storage facilities, for strategic reserves, are all necessary steps ahead of next winter.

It remains to be seen if Russia’s war on Ukraine will carry on into summer and require extreme measures, or end soon, to the relief of all.

The TTF gas exchange ended trade yesterday at 118 euros per MWh. Wholesale electricity prices in Greece today are at 222.38 euros per MWh.

In comments offered during yesterday’s opening day of the two-day Power & Gas Forum staged by energypress, Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economics at the National Technical University of Athens, estimated that natural gas prices, even if the war were to end now, will average between 50 and 70 euros per MWh this year.

 

 

 

Smaller, bigger solar energy investors face differing prospects

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Smaller and major-scale solar energy investors face differing prospects amid RES investment opportunities offered by extremely higher wholesale electricity prices as these opportunities are being largely offset by higher equipment costs.

Sharply higher wholesale electricity prices have generated stronger investment opportunities for bigger RES investors, while, for smaller players, these prospects are being dampened by higher RES equipment costs, severely diminishing their more modest profit margins.

Demand for solar panels has surged around Europe in recent times, pushing up prices. The cost of solar panel mounting systems has also risen as a result of recent sanctions imposed on Russian steel exports, which have driven steel prices higher.

Solar panel prices had begun falling early in 2022 following a period of pandemic-related increases, but are now rising again with no price de-escalation seen in the short term, RES sector officials have projected.

 

Athens to discuss plan should Russian gas supply be cut

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The Greek government is on high alert fearing the entry of Russian troops into two rebel-held regions in Ukraine’s east could disrupt Russian natural gas supplies to Europe and prompt energy insufficiencies, including in Greece.

In response to the development, energy minister Kostas Skrekas has been asked to attend an emergency meeting of the Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA), to be headed by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and present a detailed update on the strategy he could implement to avert a natural gas shortage in Greece should Russia disrupt its gas supply to Europe or the EU imposes economic sanctions on Russia, including its gas exports.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has recognized Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

The fundamentals of the Greek energy minister’s plan had been presented at a recent government meeting on February 14.

According to sources, the worst-case scenario would entail a disruption of Russian natural gas supply via the TurkStream pipeline, which supplies Bulgaria and then Greece.

In this event, Greece would need to utilize gas grid operator DESFA’s LNG terminal, on the islet Revythoussa just off Athens, to its fullest, as well as the TAP pipeline supplying natural gas from Azerbaijan.

The Revythoussa LNG terminal is currently filled to capacity and would remain so with two shipments each month for as long as the Ukraine crisis continues, sources have informed.

However, the big question for Greece, and Europe as a whole, is whether LNG shipments will be available, and at what price.

Milder weather conditions, resulting in less gas consumption, would help ease the pressure on grids throughout Europe.

Natural gas prices rebound 14% over Ukraine concerns

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The timing of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, coinciding with the ongoing energy crisis affecting Europe, including Greece, is proving detrimental to the recent de-escalation of record-level energy prices, especially in central European markets, where wholesale electricity prices have fallen below 100 euros per MWh for the first time in months.

Concerns over a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine have prevented markets from easing. Natural gas prices yesterday rose by an average of 14 percent to register a two-week high of 88 euros per MWh. As a direct consequence, electricity prices increased today following a downward trajectory in recent weeks.

In Germany, wholesale electricity skyrocketed 51.63 percent, in a day, to 155 euros per MWh. France registered a 3.3 percent increase to 193.44 euros per MWh. In the Netherlands, wholesale electricity rose by 14.98 percent to 202.1 euros per MWh, and, in Spain, the price of wholesale electricity increased by 9.07 percent to 199.94 euros per MWh.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine, which would disrupt Russian gas supply to Europe, would push up natural gas prices to new record levels exceeding records set in December.

Russia is Europe’s biggest natural gas supplier, covering 40 percent of the continent’s natural gas imports, of which 30 percent is transported through pipelines running through Ukraine.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is also impacting oil prices, now close to 100 dollars per barrel.

 

Europe tackling crisis with lower tax rates, subsidies, reimbursements

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EU member states are resorting to a variety of solutions, namely lower energy tax rates, subsidies and reimbursements, to offer some relief to households and enterprises pressured by the energy crisis, a latest report published by HEPI (Household Energy Price Index) has highlighted.

The Greek government has opted to ease the impact of the energy crisis on consumers by subsidizing electricity.

In Austria, the government has decided to zero out a carbon tax on electricity bills. Cyprus has reduced its VAT rate on electricity bills to 9 percent from 19 percent for a three-month period, beginning last November.

Elsewhere, the Low Countries have significantly reduced energy taxes. Poland has slashed its VAT rate for electricity bills to 5 percent from 23 percent and removed a special consumption tax for electricity. Spain, too, has reduced its taxes on electricity bills.

In Norway, consumers are being partially compensated if electricity prices exceed certain levels.

 

Markets challenged by nuclear withdrawals, gas crisis, demand

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A series of unfavorable developments, including nuclear reactor withdrawals in Germany and Belgium, persistently high natural gas prices and strong energy demand threaten will further test the European grid, threatening to prolong the energy crisis.

The withdrawal of nuclear reactors in Germany and Belgium, combined with skyrocketing natural gas prices, will negatively impact Europe’s electricity market, even in countries where natural gas holds a small share of the energy mix, as markets are interconnected, enabling a knock-on effect.

Germany has announced a withdrawal, today, of nuclear reactors with a combined capacity of 4.25 GW and remaining capacities, totaling about 4.3 GW, by end-2022. Overall, this phase-out represents 12 percent of the country’s electricity supply.

In addition, Germany’s new coalition intends to reassess the country’s existing decarbonization plan, its phase-out of fossil-fuel plants running until 2038, with the aim of shortening this procedure t0 2030, if possible.

Belgium is headed in the same direction. The country’s nuclear reactor phase-out runs until 2025. The country’s Doel 3 facility is planned to shut down in October, 2022, followed by Tihange 2 in early 2023.

Electricity demand in ten European countries is forecast to increase by 2 percent, or 5 GW, on average, in 2022, according to a Platts Analytics projection.