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Grant Thornton takes on Green Aegean cost-benefit analysis

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Greek Power grid operator IPTO has commissioned accountancy and advisory services firm Grant Thornton to conduct a cost-benefit analysis on the Green Aegean electrical grid interconnection project, envisaged to stretch from Greece to Germany’s south and provide a transportation corridor for RES output.

The analysis, an important step towards the project ’s further development, is expected to be completed later this year, by September or October. It will provide detailed information on crucial questions concerning whether the project can be deemed viable or not.

These questions include whether RES output will also be let out in Slovenia and Croatia or just Greece and Germany; as well as whether the project will be equipped with two or four cables.

In addition, the study will provide a template for a regulatory framework needed for the project’s operation; specify the project’s potential benefits for Greece and Germany; and offer an evaluation of the project under various scenarios.

Though an investment decision is still a long way off, IPTO wants specific figures offering investment clarity, based on specifications of similar European projects.

Green Aegean is planned to offer a 3-GW capacity for electricity transmission with potential for a further boost to as much as 9 GW.

The project’s initial budget has been estimated at between 8 and 14 billion euros, depending on the route’s specifics. An Adriatic Sea crossing from Greece to Slovenia, followed by an overland route to Austria and Germany’s south is currently envisaged.

Existing project data suggests energy consumers in Greece stand to benefit. The project’s launch has been slated for 2035.

 

EU energy-crisis concerns over Ukraine corridor ‘manageable’

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European fears of further energy-crisis woes that could result from the nearing end of a five-year pipeline gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow for Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine, appear to be manageable, as long as a series of specific measures are implemented, most EU ministers responsible for energy agreed at an Energy Council in Brussels yesterday.

The bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia expires at the beginning of 2025. Ukraine has declared it does not intend to renew this agreement.

Further energy-crisis concerns as a consequence of this agreement’s conclusion, expected to reduce the EU’s total gas imports by 5 percent, can be prevented if EU member states speed up their development of roughly 20 LNG facilities planned from Europe’s north to south; renewable energy investments gain further momentum; energy-savings measures are continued; natural gas consumption reductions continue at the current rate; and LNG imports are increased to make up for reduced Russian gas imports, energy ministers of most EU member states agreed at the Brussels meeting.

Last year, approximately 14 bcm of Russian gas was transported through the Ukrainian corridor to countries such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

Numerous EU member states achieved renewable energy production all-time highs last year. In Portugal, renewables covered 61 percent of the country’s energy needs in 2023. RES coverage of Greece’s energy needs reached 57 percent. In Germany, RES units met 52 percent of the country’s energy needs, while in Belgium the figure reached over 30 percent.

GREGY gaining momentum, investment decision early ’25

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Elica, a subsidiary of Greece’s Copelouzos group established to promote the Greek-Egyptian GREGY Interconnector, is preparing to push ahead with studies that will determine the project’s cost and also establish sites and partners for the development of 9.5 GW in RES projects.

All these aspects are crucial factors ahead of a final investment decision, expected to take a year. GREGY Interconnector, initially budgeted at 4.2 billion euros, promises to facilitate renewable energy exports from Egypt to Europe via Greece.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in El Alamein focused on the GREGY Interconnector at a recent meeting that was also attended by Dimitris Copelouzos, chairman and managing director of the Copelouzos group, which has encouraged all parties involved to move faster.

At the meeting, the Egyptian President stressed that cooperation should be accelerated and procedures streamlined, while noting any obstacles that may arise must be cleared.

The Egyptian leader’s words essentially encourage closer ties between Egypt’s electricity and renewables ministry, the Egyptian power grid operator EETC, and the Copelouzos group for swift progress on the project’s studies, expected to be awarded in February and completed, barring unexpected developments, towards the end of the year.

A total of four studies – a technical study; environmental impact study; geophysical-geotechnical study; and seabed mapping, the most challenging of the four, to be conducted at a depth 954 km in the East Mediterranean – are needed. Their total cost is estimated at between 35 and 40 million euros. Investors will seek to cover half this cost through EU funding support.

The Copelouzos group should be ready to announce a final investment decision on the GREGY Interconnector in early 2025.

Italy has corresponding plans with the Italian-German Green Vein project for a line facilitating renewable energy transmission from Egypt to Italy.

This project’s planned capacity matches that of the GREGY Interconnector, at 3 GW, but Green Vein’s subsea cable would be three times longer than that of the GREGY Interconnector’s 954 km. This will definitely weigh heavy on the Green Vein’s cost, still not announced.

Plans for a detailed feasibility study concerning Green Vein were announced by UAE’s K&K Group, Italy’s CESI and the Prysmian group, and Germany’s Siemens Energy at the recent COP28 in Dubai.

 

Green Aegean entering crucial cost-benefit analysis stage

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TSOs of countries that have expressed an interest to participate in Green Aegean, an electrical grid interconnection project envisaged to stretch from Greece to Germany’s south, have begun working on non-disclosure agreements ahead of respective cost-benefit analyses.

According to an initial estimate, the grid interconnection project, to cover roughly 1,400 kilometers, was budgeted at between 7 and 8 billion euros, but the figure is likely to change as more detailed studies are completed.

TSOs of Greece, Germany, Slovenia, Austria and Croatia, a recent addition to the group of countries interested in co-developing the project, are expected to soon commence work on detailed technical and cost-benefit studies.

The studies will include details such as the type of cable technology and converter stations preferred, as well as the cost of each segment.

Greek power grid operator IPTO and its counterparts representing the participating countries – Slovenia’s ELES, Austria’s APG, Croatia’s HOPS, and TenneT, a Dutch TSO operating in a large part of Germany – are expected to each conduct separate preliminary studies before deciding on a final master plan covering the entire grid interconnection project.

The project’s cost estimation, a crucial stage, will be complex as each of these countries have different energy mixes.

IPTO’s chief executive Manos Manousakis held talks Tuesday in Brussels with TenneT’s CEO Mannon van Beek, on the sidelines of a meeting held by ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, for an Offshore Network Development Plan.

Germany has yet to make clear its intentions on the Green Aegean project. The project’s sustainability will be a crucial aspect in the country’s decision. Greek solar energy exports will need to represent a low-cost alternative compared to solar energy production in Germany’s south, the country’s sunniest region.

At present, Greek solar energy production costs between 35 and 40 euros per MWh, compared to roughly 50 euros per MWh in Germany’s south, a price gap resulting from Greece’s sunnier weather and, by extension, lower cost of production.

Croatia keen to join Greece-Germany electrical grid link

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Croatia has expressed an interest to join a group of countries engaged in advanced talks for the development of Green Aegean, an electrical grid interconnection project envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south.

Besides Greece and Germany, Slovenia and Austria are already involved in the talks for this project.

Greek deputy energy minister Alexandra Sdoukou appears to have been informed of Croatia’s interest to become a fifth member of this group on the sidelines of last week’s ministerial conference staged by the Central and South-Eastern European Gas Connectivity Group (CESEC) in Athens.

Croatia’s interest to join the Green Aegean project has been linked to the country’s plans to develop offshore wind farms in the Adriatic Sea.

A Croatian action plan presented last year indicated the country could develop offshore wind farms with a 25-GW capacity in the Adriatic Sea, a level of output that would establish Croatia as a major European player in this domain.

The Croatian government is well aware that the country’s anticipated excess renewable energy to be generated from mid-way next decade onwards would need to be exported as the domestic system will not be able to absorb the entire output. Greece faces a similar problem.

Green Aegean would benefit all parties involved. Germany needs to find ways to cover huge energy demand increases in the winter, whereas, at the opposite end, Greece faces greater energy demand in the summer.

EU support funds are serving as an incentive for related projects. The European Commission has made available 584 billion euros for electrical grid development in the EU, Brussels announced last November.

Greek power grid operator DESFA’s chief executive Manos Manousakis is scheduled to hold talks in Brussels tomorrow with Mannon van Beek, the CEO at Dutch TSO TenneT, operating in a large part of Germany.

Manousakis recently also met with Germany’s newly appointed ambassador to Greece, Andreas Kindl, to promote the Green Aegean grid interconnection plan.

 

IPTO pitches Green Aegean to new German ambassador

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Greek power grid operator IPTO’s chief executive officer Manos Manousakis has held a meeting with Germany’s newly appointed ambassador to Greece, Andreas Kindl, to promote the operator’s proposal for a Green Aegean grid interconnection plan, envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south.

To date, German officials have remained reserved, as was highlighted by a meeting last November between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The Greek leader made note of the Green Aegean project, describing it as a step towards independence from Russian energy, without reciprocation.

The Chancellor’s lack of expression on the project does not necessarily indicate that Germany is opposed to the Greek plan. It promises to be mutually beneficial for both countries. Germany encounters bigger energy needs during winter while Greece must deal with greater energy demand in the summer.

The meeting between Manousakis, IPTO’s CEO, with Germany’s new ambassador to Greece, could end up generating momentum for further talks between officials and convergence.

IPTO has expressed preference for a HVDC-technology subsea route for the Green Aegean grid interconnection that would pass through the Adriatic Sea to Slovenia, followed by an overland route to Austria and Germany’s south.

IPTO recently held related talks with TenneT, Germany’s biggest power grid operator, and Slovenian operator ELES.

 

Wider interest for Greece-to-Germany hydrogen pipeline

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Greek gas grid operator DESFA and operators in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are interested in developing a hydrogen pipeline running from Greece to Germany via these countries and intend to sign a Memorandum of Agreement early in the new year, energypress sources have informed.

Though the initial idea emerged in Germany and has been encouraged by the German system operator, it is also compatible with broader plans and initiatives undertaken by DESFA, particularly its staging of a market test for an upgrade of Greece’s national gas transmission system that would also serve future hydrogen transmission needs.

The prospect of a vertical hydrogen corridor has been embraced by all Balkan countries, as highlighted by the results of a work group staged in September and those of ensuing meetings.

The Greek gas grid operator is in constant communication with neighboring operators and operators of the wider European region as it is determined to take on an active role in regional developments, especially ones concerning the construction of a hydrogen network serving the continent, sources noted.

Germany, it is worth noting, is set to become the largest – by far – hydrogen import market in Europe in the coming decades, with plans to buy around 70 percent of the hydrogen needed to meet its targets.

PM prioritizes south-north link in talks with German leader

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Green Aegean, a electricity supply corridor envisaged, by Athens, to run from Greece to Germany’s south, dominated talks between Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin yesterday, sources close to the Greek leader have informed.

Mitsotakis, determined to promote this project, prioritized Green Aegean over the European migrant crisis and the Middle East conflict at yesterday’s meeting.

The German side, no longer appearing worried about the Greek economy, was keen to listen to the Greek leader’s views on the south-north corridor, but, despite agreeing with Mitsotakis on most points raised, refrained from expressing any clear position, either because of other priorities or because Berlin remains unconvinced about the project’s financial sustainability.

Mitsotakis presented Green Aegean as an important plan for both countries, noting Germany’s energy needs are high in winter, and have become even more acute ever since low-cost Russian gas supply stopped flowing as a consequence of Moscow’s war in Ukraine, while energy demand in Greece is high during the summer.

Berlin is well aware of the fact that additional green-energy sources will be needed, beyond large-scale offshore wind farms in the North Sea, if German industry is to become carbon-neutral by 2050.

For its part, Athens knows very well that problems will arise in the future if RES output does not reach central Europe. Greek RES output is already many times over the country’s needs and grid capacity. Also, green energy the country aspires to import from Egypt and the Middle East will require a new electricity corridor to Europe’s north. Without such an export corridor, north African and Middle Eastern producers will surely look elsewhere for pathways to Europe.

PM to seek German leader’s support for south-north link

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Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will seek to gain political support from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration for Green Aegean, an electricity supply corridor envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south, when the two leaders meet in Berlin today.

The project is listed high on the agenda of their meeting, topped by the Middle East crisis and Greece’s long-term fiscal program.

Mitsotakis will reiterate to Chancellor Scholz that Germany’s needs for low-cost green energy, expected to rise over the coming years, could, to a great extent, be covered via a south-to-north supply corridor, which would begin with a 3-GW capacity and gradually rise to 9 GW.

The Greek leader, who had presented the project at an EU summit last March and has since remained well informed on its prospects, believes its development prospects are feasible.

The Green Aegean project is envisaged to run from Greece, through the Adriatic Sea, across Slovenia and Austria, all the way to Germany’s south.

Mitsotakis may also discuss the Green Aegean project at an additional meeting, later in the day, with Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s main opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), as well as during public discussion tonight at a Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) event.

Energy firms dominate Fortune 500 Europe list’s top spots

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European energy firms have bounced back, as highlighted by their dominant rankings on the first-ever Fortune 500 Europe list, published yesterday.

The Fortune 500 Europe list dispels myths about the continent and also reads like a throwback to the 20th century, when energy and automotive industries were the prime players in the global economy – and companies were led by men.

The list’s top spot is held by British energy giant Shell, with six energy companies and three automotive companies featuring in the top 10. This is starkly different to the US list, where three Big Tech companies—Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet—feature in the top 10. In Europe, the largest pure tech company is SAP, at No. 114, followed by 1990s powerhouses Ericsson (No. 141) and Nokia (No. 147).

One would have to go back to the late 1990s to find a Fortune 500 akin to what the Fortune 500 Europe looks like today. Twenty-five years ago, GM topped the US list with Ford and Chrysler not far behind, and Exxon, Mobil (and GE, to a lesser extent) representing the energy sector in the top 10.

The list of Europe’s largest companies, based on revenue, includes four Greek energy companies, Motor Oil, at No, 213, Helleniq Energy, formerly Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE), at No. 243, power utility PPC, at No. 298, and Mytilineos, at No. 444.

On the diversity front, too, Europe lags the US. Just 7 percent of Fortune 500 Europe companies are led by a woman, compared to 10 percent on the US list, a statistic that questions the continent’s progressive image.

The Fortune 500 Europe list includes companies from 24 different countries, ranging, in size, from Germany’s MTU Aero Engines, with revenues of $5.6 billion, at No. 500, to London-based oil and gas giant Shell ($386.2 billion) at No. 1.

Combined, the 500 European companies generated $13.94 trillion in revenue in the most recent fiscal year.

 

EU reaches agreement on electricity market reforms

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Germany has taken a step back permitting France to use state subsidies to fund its nuclear power plants, a development that has enabled EU member states to establish a wider agreement on electricity market reforms.

As part of the new EU rules, governments will be free to use funding structures known as contracts for difference (CfD). These set a minimum price guarantee for electricity suppliers, as well as a price ceiling, above which the state can recover any revenue.

EU member states backed the reforms almost unanimously at yesterday’s EU energy council, Hungary being the only member state to vote against the electricity market revisions.

It was agreed that CfD contracts will be mandatory, with certain exceptions, when public funds are used in long-term contracts.

Also, CfDs will be used for electricity generation investments using photovoltaic, geothermal, hydro and nuclear technologies, in order to provide predictability and stability.

The EU energy council agreed to provide flexibility in how member states can distribute revenues generated by CfD contracts. As a result,  these revenues will be able to be distributed to consumers and also to finance mechanisms reducing electricity costs.

CfD regulations will be implemented following a three-year transitional period for all electricity production sectors except offshore wind farms, to be given a five-year transitional period.

EU ministers have been negotiating reforms to the bloc’s electricity market for months, the objective being to offer RES developers better investment signals and secure consistent electricity supply to prevent price spikes.

IPTO submits Green Aegean proposal to ENTSO-E

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Greek power grid operator IPTO has submitted a Green Aegean grid interconnection plan, envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south, to the ten-year development plan of ENTSO-E, promoting closer cooperation across Europe’s TSOs to support the implementation of EU energy policy and achieve Europe’s energy and climate policy objectives.

The project’s inclusion in the development plan of ENTSO-E, representing operators from all of the EU’s 27 member states, would represent a significant first step towards PCI/PMI status for the project, securing EU funding, as planned by IPTO.

IPTO prefers a HVDC-technology subsea route for the Green Aegean grid interconnection that would pass through the Adriatic Sea to Slovenia, followed by an overland route to Austria and Germany’s south.

IPTO recently held related talks with TenneT, Germany’s biggest power grid operator, and Slovenian operator ELES.

TenneT has expressed strong interest in the Green Aegean grid interconnection and the prospect of collaborating with IPTO on the project’s development for a link with Germany’s grid in the southern part of the country.

HVDC-technology enables transmission of large quantities of electricity over long distances via submarine cables, as well as fast and accurate control of power flow, enhancing grid stability.

 

IPTO favors subsea route, HVDC for Green Aegean

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Power grid operator IPTO has settled on proposing a subsea route for the Green Aegean grid interconnection, a pivotal project envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south, which, according to the operator’s preferred route, would pass through the Adriatic Sea to Slovenia, followed by an overland route to Austria and Germany’s south.

The operator has abandoned an alternative overland western Balkans route for the project, through Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia, over cost-related concerns. This route would entail upgrading pylons at outdated networks in these countries, making the venture financially unfeasible.

As a result, IPTO is now holding talks with TenneT, Germany’s biggest power grid operator, for its proposed underwater route, a more independent passage that would not require the usage of networks at any neighboring countries and be equipped with HVDC technology.

If IPTO’s envisaged route is finally adopted, then Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ proposal for the establishment of a European Grid Facility to fund upgrades of outdated Balkan networks and, subsequently, enable a Green Aegean crossing, will no longer apply. Mitsotakis presented his proposal during an EU summit last March.

Usage of HVDC technology for such projects is crucial as it enables transmission of large quantities of electricity over long distances via submarine cables; fast and accurate control of power flow, enhancing grid stability; and the interconnection of incompatible networks.

 

Significant emission cuts from domestic industry, SEV notes

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Greece’s industrial sector is now responsible for 47.5 percent of the country’s total carbon emissions, down from 59 percent in 2010, with plans for more reductions further ahead, SEV, the Hellenic Association of Industrialists, has noted in a special report.

Greek industry has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 43 percent over the last 10 years, the sixth largest reduction in the EU, SEV highlighted in its report.

Furthermore, the sector’s share of energy consumption is lower than in most European countries, accounting for only 17 percent of consumption, the SEV report noted.

Renewable energy facilities installed by domestic industrial and energy groups are playing a key role in Greece’s transition to cleaner forms of energy, according to the association.

Greek industry is supporting European goals for climate neutrality by 2050 by investing in renewable energy sources and reducing carbon emissions, while also improving efficiency of resource utilization, SEV noted.

However, high energy costs, environmental-impact limitations and a lack of investment incentives in the EU, putting European firms at a disadvantage compared to US competitors, are tempting many European enterprises, including Greek, especially energy-intensive companies, to consider moving out of the continent, a development that threatens to bring about a new wave of deindustrialization, SEV warned in its report.

Investments in green or digital technologies, as well as in production of crucial raw materials, to end a reliance on non-EU countries, are needed, the report noted.

Though energy costs have fallen considerably since the summer of 2022, they remain high and stand as one of the biggest challenges faced by the industrial sector, SEV pointed out.

Energy costs in Greece are among the highest in the EU, SEV stressed. Last August, wholesale electricity in Greece was priced at 109.33 euros per MWh, compared to 94.41 euros per MWh in Germany, 90.96 euros per MWh in France, 96.09 euros per MWh in Spain, and 97.91 euros per MWh in Portugal.

SEV, in its report, presented four proposals aimed at protecting the competitiveness of Greek industry.

It called for the implementation of energy cost-restricting mechanisms and tools; reinforcement and expansion of electricity transmission networks, as well as development of new networks that could establish Greece as an energy hub in the wider east Mediterranean; sufficient development of energy networks to support RES facilities in their production of electricity for the industrial sector; and financial support for green-transition investments in new technologies such as CO2 capture and storage.

 

IPTO seeks Green Aegean grid link’s entry into ENTSO-E plan

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Greek power grid operator IPTO intends, within the next few days, to submit a Green Aegean grid interconnection plan, envisaged to run from Greece to Germany’s south, to the ten-year development plan of ENTSO-E, promoting closer cooperation across Europe’s TSOs to support the implementation of EU energy policy and achieve Europe’s energy and climate policy objectives.

The project’s inclusion in the development plan of ENTSO-E, representing operators from all of the EU’s 27 member states, would represent a significant first step towards PCI/PMI status for the project, securing EU funding, as planned by IPTO.

The Green Aegean grid interconnection project is seen as vital for channeling, further north in Europe, huge quantities of green energy that are expected to enter Greece in the coming years from the Middle East and Asia through projects such as the Saudi Greek Interconnection. The project would also allow Greece to export some of its excess domestically-produced energy.

Greek and Saudi delegations met yesterday to establish a 50-50 joint venture for the Saudi-Greek Interconnection, with IPTO and Saudi Arabia’s National Grid as shareholders.

The Greek-German Green Aegean grid interconnection; the Saudi-Greek interconnection; along with Euroasia Interconnector, planned to connect the Greek, Cypriot and Israeli grids; as well as the Greek-Egyptian GREGY grid link, all represent parts of a green-energy intercontinental axis running several thousands of kilometers and involving many individual interconnections and special purpose companies. All these initiatives share one common goal, to transport, via Greece, renewable energy from Asia and the Middle East to green energy-hungry markets of Europe’s north.

 

Talks for Green Aegean link, from Greece to Germany, gain momentum

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A prospective Green Aegean grid interconnection project, planned to run from Greece to Germany’s south, facilitating exports of significant amounts of green energy as part of a wider effort to transport energy from Europe’s south to north, is gaining momentum through ongoing communication between Greek power grid operator IPTO and four German electricity transmission operators. Additionally, the international policy offices of the Greek and German energy ministries are becoming more actively involved in the project.

Though, quite clearly, the green transition stands no chance of succeeding without the development of major international interconnections for exports of colossal green energy quantities from south to north, coordinating such a transboundary project is a highly complex task, as efforts to date have shown.

From a technical point of view, an initial Greek proposal envisions a cable with a total transmission capacity of approximately 3 GW. This capacity would be boosted to 6 GW through a second round of work and eventually be further upgraded to 9 GW, according to the Greek proposal.

IPTO has worked on two alternative cable routes, both involving Albania. One proposal concerns an overland route across Montenegro, Croatia, Slovenia and Austria before concluding in Germany’s south. The Greek power grid operator’s other proposed route, which includes an underwater crossing, would run alongside the Albanian coast to Slovenia and then follow a n overland route to Austria and southern Germany.

IPTO is currently engaged in talks with each of Germany’s four transmission system operators (TSOs) – Transnet, Tenne, Amprion and 50 Hertz – covering separate German regions, to determine the extent of Berlin’s support for the Green Aegean project.

Greece and Germany, Europe’s biggest consumer of green energy, will need to reach an agreement on the project before an application can be lodged to the European Commission. If the effort moves ahead, PCI/PMI status will be sought for the project.

At present, there is no clarity on the project’s financing plan. Last March, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis told an EU Summit that the project would require funding from a variety of European programs. A European Grid Facility needs to be established to fund new multi-billion budget networks that will be able to support additional green energy, he noted.

As yet, no moves been made to modernize outdated grid infrastructure, especially in the western Balkans, lying between Europe’s south and north. This infrastructure will require a revamp in order to carry enormous amounts of green electricity stemming from the east Mediterranean, Egypt and Africa’s north.

Greece is now at a critical crossroads in terms of its green production potential, which will increasingly exceed domestic demand. On September 10, a new record of green electricity production was set, renewables covering up to 140 percent of domestic demand. Surplus amounts were exported, indicating what lies ahead and highlighting the need for solutions.

 

German-French nuclear dispute delaying capacity mechanism

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Greek government efforts for the establishment of a capacity mechanism concerning gas-fueled power stations have been bogged down, indefinitely, by a long-running dispute between France and Germany over nuclear energy. Paris is seeking to secure a greater role for nuclear energy in the European Union’s energy revamp.

According to reliable sources, this nuclear dispute is the only unresolved issue and one remaining obstacle to the EU adopting a new set of regulations for its electricity market reforms. A text for the reforms was established at an Energy Council of EU energy ministers in June.

The new set of regulations, in the context of capacity availability mechanisms, includes a provision enabling remuneration for gas-fueled power plant availability, if these plants meet required technical specifications. The text also permits the implementation of a mechanism rewarding such power plants for flexibility.

According to the same sources, developments on these mechanisms are expected later this month, under the shadow of the German-French nuclear energy dispute, which has derailed any schedule that may still exist for the EU’s electricity market reforms.

Berlin has expressed a preference for these reforms to be completed following the EU elections next June, while Paris, in response, has demanded no less than a partial agreement before the end of 2023.

 

Brussels forecasts lower gas prices, concerned about oil

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The European Commission has projected energy prices falling at a slower rate for the remainder of 2023 before rising again in 2024, especially for oil prices.

Brussels made its forecast before OPEC+ announced it would extend production cuts until the end of this year, which pushed the price of Brent up to a level of 90 dollars per barrel.

As for electricity and natural gas prices, the European Commission report notes prices have fallen since spring.

For the third quarter of 2023, the European Commission expects price levels to be 21 percent lower for natural gas and 25 percent lower for electricity, compared to its previous estimates.

Brussels has forecast an electricity price average of 109 euros per MWh in 2023 and 140 euros per MWh in 2024, down from 130 and 160 euros per MWh, respectively, in its spring report. This revision was attributed to a rapid expansion of liquefaction terminals on the continent and full gas storage facilities.

The Brussels report projects economic growth of 0.8 percent this year in the Eurozone and the EU, slightly below a previous 1 percent growth forecast, while economic growth in 2024 is seen reaching 1.3 percent, down from 1.6 percent projected in the spring report.

The German economy, Europe’s biggest, is now seen contracting by 0.4 percent this year, rather than growing 0.2 percent, as was previously projected.

EU industrial production fell by 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, compared with the previous quarter, despite falling energy prices, the Brussels report noted.

Greece among EU’s top 5 RES producers in first half of 2023

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Greece was among the EU’s top five renewable energy producers in the first half of 2023, while Europe’s solar energy market has experienced a period of significant growth in recent years, a recent study from the energy think-tank Ember has shown.

A total of 17 EU member states achieved record RES energy-mix shares in the first half of 2023, according to the study. RES output in Greece and Romania represented more than 50 percent of the overall energy production levels for both countries, unprecedented for both, the study highlighted.

Also, Denmark and Portugal achieved a significant milestone, with their renewable energy output surpassing the 75 percent mark for the first time, the Ember study revealed.

In another first, wind and solar energy output exceeded 30 percent of the EU’s overall energy production in May and June, according to the study.

As for newly installed RES capacity during the first half of 2023, compared to the equivalent period a year earlier, the Ember study showed an acceleration in RES penetration, particularly notable in the PV sector.

Following 2022’s record performance for PV installations in the EU, which totaled 33 GW, the momentum continued through the first half of 2023. Germany was the EU’s best performer, installing 6.5 GW in PV capacity during the first six months this year, a 10 percent increase. Poland followed with 2 GW, a 17 percent increase, and Belgium ranked third with 1.2 GW, a 19 percent increase.

Wholesale power highest in Europe at €154.63/MWh

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Greece’s wholesale electricity prices have risen sharply today, up 34.68 percent to an average of 154.63 euros per MWh from yesterday’s level of 114.81 euros per MWh, making them Europe’s highest.

The minimum price in Greece today will fall to an average of 96 euros per MWh, while the highest will peak at 377.18 euros per MWh.

Romania has registered Europe’s second-highest wholesale electricity price today, at 150.69 euros per MWh, followed by Bulgaria, at 150.13 euros per MWh.

Meanwhile, major European markets have registered significantly lower wholesale electricity prices today. Italy’s average wholesale price today is at 120.36 euros per MWh and Germany’s is 118.67 euros per MWh.

Norway has registered Europe’s lowest wholesale electricity price today, averaging 40.21 euros per MWh, followed by Turkey, at 82 euros per MWh, Sweden, at 87.6 euros per MWh, and Spain and Portugal, both registering an average of 89.66 euros per MWh.

As for Greece’s energy mix, natural gas-fueled power stations will cover 42.26 percent of the country’s energy needs today, followed by renewables, at 21.56 percent, electricity imports, at 20.26 percent, hydropower, at 7.91 percent, and lignite-fired power stations, at 2.62 percent.

The country’s electricity demand today is projected to reach 161.213 GWh, peaking at 7,946 MW at 12.30 pm.

 

Germany pursuing hydrogen-based generation as sun, wind substitute

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Germany is pursuing the ambition to become a global frontrunner in green hydrogen technology, a strategic endeavor rooted in the belief that harnessing fuel generated from renewable energy sources can play a pivotal role in mitigating worldwide carbon emissions. Furthermore, this endeavor is anticipated to fortify Europe’s biggest economy.

In this context, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) announced that it has agreed with the European Commission on a strategy for German hydrogen power plants.

The German government aims to have its electricity supply almost entirely based on renewable energy sources – mainly solar and wind – by 2035.

Nonetheless, during periods known as “dunkelflaute,” characterized by the absence of wind and sunlight required for energy production, power plants must be equipped to generate electricity using renewable fuels like hydrogen in order to meet demand.

Berlin’s agreement with the European Commission includes planned tenders for 8.8 GW of new hydrogen power plants and up to 15 GW of power plants to be switched to hydrogen operation by 2035.

 

Emergency measures extended by 3 months over price fears

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Unsettling energy price forecasts have prompted the energy ministry to extend the country’s emergency measures by a further three months, meaning they will now remain valid until December 31, to protect consumers against any new upward price trajectory.

The energy ministry reached a decision last Friday to extend the emergency measures – namely a price cap imposed on the wholesale electricity market and a suspension of indexation clauses usually included in electricity bills. Both measures, introduced a year ago, were due to expire on October 1.

The energy ministry wants the financial support of the Energy Transition Fund, in order to provide electricity subsidies to consumers should the energy crisis flare up again.

Such Energy Transition Fund support would not be possible if the existing price cap in the wholesale electricity market were to be lifted, as any price levels over the cap would remain in the market and not be diverted into the Energy Transition Fund to cover electricity subsidy needs.

Since its introduction last July, the price cap on the wholesale electricity market has so far raised over 3.3 billion euros for electricity bill subsidies, the energy ministry pointed out in its announcement of the decision to extend the country’s emergency measures.

Highlighting concerns of possible energy price rises ahead, German electricity forward contracts for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024 have been set at 123 and 146 euros per MWh, respectively.

As for France, one of Europe’s other major energy markets, forward contracts for Q3 2023 and Q1 2024 were set at 155 and 218 euros per MWh, respectively.

ESIAPE: IPTO’s RES grid injection cut plan deviates from EU rules

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A set of rules proposed by power grid operator IPTO on RES unit injection cuts concerning the Greek electricity system deviates from European regulations and practices followed in other European countries, according to ESIAPE, the Greek Association of Renewable Energy Source Electricity Producers.

Expressing its views in related consultation staged by RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water, ESIAPE noted that Greece’s regulatory framework does not provide for any compensation when RES unit grid injection cuts are ordered, which runs contrary to regulations and practices followed by other European countries.

The current regulatory framework in Greece creates conditions that lead to potential distortions of competition, ESIAPE noted.

In its intervention, ESIAPE offered, as a comparison, detailed presentations of practices followed by five other European countries – France, Germany, UK, Spain and Italy – all offering compensation for RES unit grid injection cuts, when requested by authorities, to prevent grid overloading.

Collective gas orders increase in second purchasing round

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A second round of collective European gas purchases, through a platform similar to one established for vaccine orders during the pandemic, has resulted in natural gas orders totaling nearly 12 bcm, well over a quantity ordered during the procedure’s first round in May.

However, the EU initiative fell short of attracting full participation. Second-round orders were delivered to twenty European grid entry points, the majority of quantities at entry points in the Netherlands, France, Italy, Bulgaria and Germany, as well as Ukrainian storage facilities, Sefcovic noted.

“The positive results of this second round illustrate that there is a need and clear added value to join forces, pool our demand and work together to guarantee stable and affordable gas supply to the EU market,” noted the European Commission’s Vice President Maros Sefcovic, who oversees the platform, named AggregateEU.

It was established by the EU following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to prevent bidding wars between fellow member states and utilize their collective bargaining power potential for competitively priced energy supply as an alternative to Russian natural gas.

Approximately 5.5 bcm, or 45 percent, of the second round’s orders, totaling 11.98 bcm, were made for LNG, well over this energy source’s share of orders in the first round, below 20 percent of the total. Pipeline gas represented all other collective orders made through the platform in the second round.

A third round is expected to be staged in September and is planned to be followed by two further rounds before the end of the year.

Greek gas hub potential now realistic, DESFA actions show

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Greece, for the first time, has shown true potential to soon establish itself as a regional gas hub and gateway for southeast Europe, judging by the results of gas grid operator DESFA’s recent auctions offering grid capacity reservations, as well as the operator’s non-binding market test for a prospective expansion of the country’s gas transmission network.

DESFA has prepared an extensive ten-year development plan that is fully aligned with the new market conditions taking shape, as well as with the company’s efforts to achieve energy-transition objectives, the operator’s administration has underlined at a news conference.

Greek gas exports increased by 15.09 percent in the first half of 2023, compared to the equivalent period last year, according to DESFA data presented at the news conference.

Also, DESFA’s non-binding market test for a prospective expansion of the country’s gas transmission network drew the participation of 27 companies, 17 of these from abroad, primarily central and southeast Europe, such as Bulgaria, Romania, Austria, Hungary, Slovakia, Germany, Cyprus, North Macedonia, as well as the USA.

Forty percent of the market test’s participants have never before been active in Greece’s natural gas market, DESFA announced.

Participants expressed interest for all the country’s gas grid entry points (Sidirokastro, Nea Mesimvria, Kipoi and Agia Triada), as well as for connections to Greece’s prospective FSRUs (Gastrade, Argo, Dioryga Gas, Elpedison).

Highlighting the Greek natural gas market’s export orientation, exports to Bulgaria totaled approximately 2.4 bcm in 2022, roughly half of Greece’s annual gas consumption last year, 4.9 bcm.

Next mixed RES auction offering Europe’s lowest starting prices

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RES auction starting prices in Greece have, contrary to other European markets, remained unchanged at levels set earlier this year ahead of a  session in September and, as a result, are currently the continent’s lowest.

Several months ago, local authorities set RES auction starting prices of 54 euros per MWh for solar energy and 63 euros per MWh for wind energy.

The energy crisis and its escalated wholesale electricity prices prompted – in more recent times – countries such as Germany to offer investors generous increases in RES auction starting prices.

These rises were offered in parts of the continent after European RES auctions held in 2022 failed to attract the anticipated level of interest from investors, leaving significant amounts of unwanted capacities, including in Greece.

Berlin raised its RES auction starting price for solar energy to 73 euros per MWh from 60 euros per MWh for a session in March. The initiative drew a satisfactory number of participants.

Serbia, preparing for its inaugural RES auction, is offering a starting price of 105 euros per MWh for wind energy and 90 euros per MWh for solar energy to attract investors.

Italy, for its most recent RES auction, in May, set a starting price of 65 euros per MWh for solar energy, the same level set by Spain for its most recent RES auction.

The UK recently offered a starting price of 54.8 euros per MWh for solar energy and 61.9 euros per MWh for wind energy.

Returning to Greece, it remains to be seen if the de-escalation in electricity prices of late will prompt investors to choose RES auctions for their project tariffs or instead opt for other solutions such as PPAs.

 

Overdevelopment danger for LNG terminals in Europe, IEEFA warns

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Major LNG terminals being developed in various parts of Europe, including Greece and Germany, in response to reduced Russian gas supply, could fail to achieve full commercial potential as the continent may end up possessing a far greater number of such facilities than required by 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned.

If REPower EU objectives are attained and Turkish gas demand remains steady, then European demand for LNG will be restricted to a level of just 150 billion cubic meters in 2030, down from 175 bcm in 2022, IEEFA pointed out. At such a level in 2030, LNG terminals in Europe would operate at less than 40 percent of capacity.

IEEFA also stressed that European gas operators have an incentive to over-expand their infrastructure and asset base in order to deliver profits to shareholders, even if projects do not end up being fully utilized.

Existing legislation provides operators with guaranteed revenues collected through tariffs, IEEFA pointed out. Evidence strongly suggests the Russian attack on Ukraine has accelerated Europe’s energy transition by dramatically boosting the penetration of green technologies that reduce demand for gas and LNG, the institute added.

 

European electricity prices fall, demand down, RES output up

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European energy market price levels fell last week, influenced by lower demand as well as increased renewable energy output by wind and solar farms.

Energy markets across southeast Europe recorded noteworthy price reductions last week that averaged 17.44 percent, compared to a week earlier. Favorable weather conditions in this region led to a 60 percent increase in RES output, wind farms being the main contributor.

Serbia posted the biggest week-to-week price reduction in southeast Europe, a 21.34 percent drop in wholesale electricity prices, followed by Greece, where the week’s drop averaged 20.31 percent. Bulgaria and Romania both recorded average price reductions of 19.16 percent last week. Prices in Turkey have also been on a downward trajectory.

In central Europe, spot markets fell to weekly averages of less than 135 euros per MWh. The weekly average, for this region, was lowest in Germany, at 119.05 euros MWh, a 12.61 percent reduction compared to a week earlier as a result of lower demand and increased wind energy output.

Central Europe’s highest wholesale electricity prices last week were recorded in Switzerland, at 134.48 euros per MWh, despite an 11.22 percent reduction compared to a week earlier. France followed with a weekly average price of 131.07 euros per MWh, driven higher by power utility EDF strikes that reduced output at nuclear power plants, covering roughly 70 percent of the country’s energy mix.

PCI application in making for Greek-Austrian-German grid link proposal

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Austria and Germany are considering a Greek proposal for a 3-GW electricity grid interconnection, a project that would directly transport green energy produced in Greece to the two countries.

Energy minister Kostas Skrekas unveiled this project plan during a speech yesterday at the Renewable & Storage Forum, a two-day conference organized by energypress, continuing today.

Germany is believed to be seeking alternative green energy sources as, according to the minister’s comments at the conference, the country cannot develop RES projects in its south as a result of environmental measures protecting the Black Forest.

Sources informed that officials are working on an application for PCI classification concerning this grid interconnection.

Power grid operator IPTO, the sources added, has prepared plans for two alternative routes, one crossing Albania, Montenegro, Croatia and Slovenia, before reaching Austria and Germany’s south, the other a subsea route from Albania’s coastline to Slovenia followed by an overland crossing to Austria and Germany’s south.

Energy crisis gap bridging the main aim at today’s EU summit

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The EU’s 27 leaders participating at today’s EU summit will strive to heal divisions that have created blocs within Europe for energy crisis solutions rather than seek finalized solutions on how price levels could de-escalate.

The EU-27 will be asked to agree to European Commission proposals announced yesterday. They include collective natural gas orders for reinforced bargaining power and prevention of bidding wars by fellow EU member states for LNG quantities, as well as a supplementary gas benchmark offering a more accurate reflection of market conditions.

A Brussels request concerning a temporary price cap on gas used for electricity generation, a strategy already adopted by Spain and Portugal, is expected to be contested by the EU leaders.

Brussels considers the proposal for a price cap on gas used for electricity production should be further examined, judging by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s comments in European Parliament yesterday.

France, using minimal amounts of gas for electricity generation as a result of its considerable nuclear capacity, has expressed support for such a plan. Germany accepts it but Greece, Italy, Belgium and other EU member states object as a result of the significant fiscal cost entailed.

Some EU members favoring a general price cap on gas, including Greece and, more recently, the Netherlands, are expected to remain adamant on their  preferred approach at today’s summit.

Germany strongly opposes a general price cap on gas, fearing it will repel gas suppliers and push up prices as a result of reduced supply and higher demand.