The widened Middle East conflict has greatly impacted Egypt’s LNG export ability, intensifying European fears of shortages on the continent this coming winter.

Production at Israel’s Tamar gas field, yielding 10 bcm per year, has been disrupted. This comes as a setback for Europe as a proportion of Israel’s production at the Tamar field is distributed to Egypt, which, in turn, exports to the continent in the form of LNG. Egyptian LNG exports were already down prior to this development.

As a result of these two factors, Egypt must now focus on covering its own energy needs, which relegates its LNG export interests to secondary status, analysts noted, warning that supply from Egypt could even be zeroed out.

LNG supply from Egypt is not negligible. Last year, Egypt exported 4.6 bcm, covering 5 percent of Europe’s needs.

Egyptian LNG exports have been severely restricted since October 7, when the current conflict was instigated by a Hamas attack on Israel, forcing the country to halt production at Tamar as a precautionary measure.

For the first time in years, Egypt’s LNG flow could reverse, transforming the country into an LNG importer rather than an LNG exporter.

Gas supply to Egypt has dropped by 70 to 80 percent since the closure of Tamar, a gas field that was producing at a rate of 23 million cubic meters a day during the year’s first eight months, an International Energy Agency analyst highlighted.