TTF

TTF hike raises concerns over perceived ‘return to normality’

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A steady rise in the TTF index over the past few days, following more than a year of decline, has market players concerned about the direction natural gas prices could take for the rest of this year.

The TTF, Europe’s gas benchmark, had fallen to as low as 23 euros per MWh a few weeks ago but has now rebounded, reaching a level of 28 euros per MWh yesterday. Gas futures dated December, 2024 and onwards are currently priced at over 30 euros per MWh.

The rising trend comes following a very mild winter of low consumption, which, however, was higher compared to last year.

Market players do not appear to be fully convinced by Europe’s extension of measures aiming to reduce demand for yet another year, until the end of next winter.

The recent insecurity that has crept into the market appears to stem from Europe’s anticipated loss of Russian gas imported via a Ukrainian corridor. A five-year pipeline gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow for Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine expires at the beginning of 2025. Ukraine has declared it does not intend to renew this agreement.

This bilateral agreement’s end is expected to reduce the EU’s total gas imports by 5 percent. The loss will need to be offset by an increase in LNG shipments.

Unfavorable news from across the Atlantic has further unsettled market players. Natural gas producers such as EQT have decided to reduce output as a result of extremely low gas prices in the domestic market.

The downward trajectory of the TTF in recent months was driven by weak demand in Asia, including China, a trend whose continuation cannot be depended on. Also, the EU cannot count on next winter being as mild as the previous two winters.

 

PPC variable green tariff for March down to 9.4 cents/KWh

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A further reduction in wholesale electricity prices in February, down to an average of 72.2 euros per MWh, from 93 euros per MWh a month earlier, has created conditions for lower retail electricity prices in March.

Power utility PPC’s variable green tariff has been set at 9.4 cents per KWh for March, not including any discount the supplier will decide to offer.

Rival power suppliers are expected to follow suit and lower their prices for March, down to roughly 8 cents per KWh, based on formulas applied.

Sliding natural gas prices at the TTF in recent times could lead to a further decline in electricity prices in April, assuming the TTF index remains at its currently low level of around 24 to 25 euros per MWh.

Besides variable green tariffs, the country’s new color-coded tariff system, introduced January 1 to simplify price comparisons, also offers variable yellow tariffs, a lesser risk for suppliers, as their levels are set at the end of each month. In addition, consumers may opt for fixed blue tariffs.

 

Levy on gas used for power production to end January 1

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The energy ministry has decided to terminate, as of January 1, a special levy imposed on natural gas used for electricity production, energypress sources have informed.

The special levy has been applied by the energy ministry as a tool to limit domestic gas consumption and, as a result, help subdue gas prices. Up until recently, the ministry was considering to extend the levy for a brief period into 2024.

The energy committee at SEV, the Hellenic Association of Industrialists, had pushed for this special levy to be terminated during a recent meeting with the energy ministry’s leadership in late October.

At the time, the ministry officials refused to offer any specific withdrawal date for the levy, noting the matter would be examined with the course of international gas prices in mind. The ministry officials indicated the levy would be maintained if international gas prices remained at levels of the time, or increased.

However, international gas prices have since fallen. Last week, the TTF index fell to 38 euros per MWh, a level not recorded since early 2022, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the attack’s impact on energy markets.

This price de-escalation in international markets should eliminate any risk of a demand-driven natural gas price increase in Greece, officials believe.

The special levy’s formula was revised in May to 5 percent of the TTF, replacing a previous flat rate of 10 euros per MWh that had been introduced in November, 2022.

Crucial DEPA, Gazprom talks on gas price, take-or-pay clause

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Greek gas utility DEPA’s negotiations with Gazprom on new natural gas prices for 2024 and the Russian company’s insistence on activating a take-or-pay clause for a payment of approximately 400 million euros as compensation for unused gas quantities in 2022 and 2023 have reached a crucial stage and could end up in court.

A current price agreement between the two sides, signed in 2021, is 80 percent linked to the TTF index at the Dutch energy exchange and 20 percent linked to the price of oil.

DEPA is seeking an improved price level for 2024 as well as a retroactive price cut from January 1, 2023, which, if agreed on, would result in a reimbursement.

Also, DEPA disagrees with Gazprom’s insistence on triggering a take-or-pay clause in response to the Greek company’s failure to absorb a minimum natural gas amount of 17 TWh per year. DEPA contends its shortfall resulted from the Russian company’s failure to honor a crucial price-related term for gas supply at a price level that would ensure a competitive advantage for DEPA in the Greek market.

Over the past few months, Gazprom has supplied LNG and natural gas to at least one other customer in Greece at price levels lower than those offered to DEPA, sources at the gas utility have claimed.

Despite the introduction of EU measures designed to restrict Russian gas imports into Europe, they remain high in Greece, representing approximately 40 percent of the country’s overall gas imports – both LNG and pipeline gas – compared to just 9 percent in the EU.

Greek energy minister Thodoris Skylakakis, responding to journalists’ questions, contended he remains unperturbed by Gazprom’s dispute with Bulgaria over the Russian company’s refusal to meet a Bulgarian network usage surcharge demand of 10.2 euros per MWh.

Though this dispute could result in a disruption of Russian supply to Bulgaria and, by extension, Greece, the outcome would rid Greece of Russia’s high-cost demands, the minister contended.

The cost of the DEPA-Gazprom take-or-pay clause for 2022 is 150 million euros and is estimated to reach 300 million euros in 2023, according to the minister.

 

Electricity prices projected to rise 15-20% in November

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A recent rise in the Dutch TTF index, a European gas benchmark, as a result of the Middle East crisis and a rupture on the Baltic-connector undersea gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, which has raised suspicions of Russian involvement, will result in significantly higher November gas delivery contracts, which, in turn, will push up domestic wholesale electricity prices, market officials have projected.

Wholesale electricity prices are seen rising between 15 and 20 percent next month, which suppliers would relay to consumers.

Electricity suppliers are expected to announce monthly nominal tariffs – not including subsidies – of at least 18 cents per KWh for November.

The country’s electricity suppliers, under current law, are required to announce price levels for every forthcoming month by the 20th of each preceding month. This requirement will be terminated at the end of the year, when emergency energy-crisis measures are to be lifted.

The energy ministry is currently finalizing a plan that will introduce – as of January, for 12 months – a single variable tariff formula for all electricity suppliers, who will apply it and then set respective tariff levels depending on their profit-margin strategies.

The plan’s objective being to intensify competition and subdue prices, while also offering consumers price-comparing clarity.

All electricity consumers will be automatically transferred to the new single variable tariff as of January 1, unless they opt, prior to this date, for any other supply deals offered by suppliers.

 

Latest events prompt energy market turmoil ahead of winter

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Last weekend’s outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war, undermining any attempt at peace in the Middle East and the process of normalizing Israel’s relations with the Arab countries, and, in addition, the suspected sabotage of the Baltic-connector gas pipeline, used by Finland and Estonia for access to an underground gas storage facility in Latvia, are two developments that have come at the worst possible time for European energy security and cost concerns, right before winter and following an EU decision to end energy crisis-related support measures for consumers all over Europe.

The two developments would have impacted energy markets any time of year, but their pre-winter emergence makes them even more critical. This is the time of year when demand for natural gas and oil increases in Europe, along with prices. In Greece, the heating oil trading season is set to begin October 13.

Markets around the continent have not been appeased by the fact that European storage facilities are 95 percent full, but instead, are being driven higher by the unease brought about by the latest events.

Besides the Israel-Gaza war, the Baltic-connector pipeline has just been shut down after a sudden drop in pressure, raising fears of Russian sabotage as retribution for Finland joining Nato in April this year.

The damage to this infrastructure has revived concerns about energy security following the Nord Stream pipeline blasts last year.

According to macroeconomic research consultancy Capital Economics, the combination of events could raise oil prices to levels well above 100 dollars a barrel for some time.

Wholesale natural gas prices rose 12.3 percent in a day, to just under 50 euros per MWh at the Dutch TTF hub.

The Greek government may need to reconsider its decision to end energy subsidies for all consumers. Supply companies may need to hedge prices and factor in the new risk factors. Also, refineries and gas importers may need to secure loads before prices escalate.

With Israel preparing for a ground attack on Gaza, it has become clear that decisions such as the choice of route for Israeli gas exports to Europe; promotion of Israel’s energy cooperation with Greece and Cyprus; and the development of projects such as the Israel-Cyprus-Greece electricity grid interconnection, are, for the time being, not a top priority.

 

LNG facility strikes in Australia raise European concerns

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Strike action at three LNG facilities in Australia, a key player in the global LNG market, has raised concerns in Europe as the ongoing dispute between employers and employees could have a significant impact on global gas supply and, by extension, the price of the Dutch TTF futures contracts.

The strike action, taking place at facilities that account for roughly 10 percent of global supply, has destabilized the European natural gas market over the past few weeks.

Europe needs to prepare for the possibility of further instability and price rises as it remains unclear how the ongoing dispute at the LNG facilities in Australia will play out, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) noted in a report.

North West Shelf, an LNG facility run by Woodside Energy, and two Chevron-run facilities, Gordon and Wheatstone, could be affected by the ongoing strike action, IEEFA warned. All three facilities, combined, represent roughly 10 percent of global LNG supply.

Australia, along with Qatar and the USA, represent nearly 60 percent of global LNG supply. Although the majority of Australian LNG exports are destined for Japan, China and South Korea, the disruption caused by the strikes will lead to Asia and Europe competing for LNG.

Levy on gas for power output to be terminated at end of year

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The energy ministry plans to terminate an extraordinary levy that was imposed on natural gas used for electricity generation at the beginning of 2024, along with the termination of other measures implemented in the wholesale and electricity markets during the energy crisis.

A joint ministerial decision issued last spring for subsidy distribution of amounts collected through the extraordinary levy is also set to expire on December 31, 2023.

The joint ministerial decision, which had been signed by then-energy minister Kostas Skrekas and former deputy finance minister Theodoros Skylakakis, now in charge of the country’s energy portfolio, facilitated the collection of funds through the levy on gas used for electricity production in order to contribute to electricity-bill subsidies offered through the Energy Transition Fund.

The formula of the levy on gas used for electricity production, introduced in November, 2022, was revised in May this year and set at 5 percent of the TTF index, replacing a previous fixed charge of 10 euro per MWh.

Though this revision did reduce the cost of the levy imposed on gas used for electricity production, it has continued distorting the domestic wholesale market, market officials have contended.

As a result, the levy has undermined the competitiveness of domestic gas-fueled power plants compared to counterpart units in neighboring countries, thus limiting their operating hours.

The TTF index, a key benchmark for natural gas prices in the European market, ended August at an average of 34.83 euros per MWh for contracts requiring delivery in September.

 

Eurogas: Energy crisis threat not yet over for Europe

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The energy-crisis threat on the continent has not yet passed, despite lower prices, according to Didier Holleaux, chairman of Eurogas and vice-president of France’s Engie, who has warned that the risks will remain for at least the next four winters, and, in doing so, advised authorities, governments and organizations to avoid complacency.

EUROGAS is a European organization involving the participation of a significant number of major energy companies from all over the EU.

Europe managed to overcome the threat of energy shortages last winter, while a sharp fall in natural gas prices over the past six months has provided a welcome respite for consumers.

European contracts at the Dutch TTF hub are currently being established at levels of between 20 and 30 euros per MWh, just a fraction of last August’s peak of 340 euros per MWh, prompted by a drastic cutback in supply of Russian pipeline gas.

Over the past year, EU officials have adopted a series of measures to reduce natural gas prices. Holleaux, in comments to Natural Gas World, warned that last year’s unusually mild winter was the catalyst behind the price reductions.

He acknowledged the European Commission’s gas storage requirements for EU member states also played a role in subduing prices in Europe, adding, however, that current prices remain considerably higher than levels that were regarded as normal prior to the pandemic.

Power suppliers seen lowering August tariffs by up to 5%

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A large number of electricity retailers are expected to announce reduced tariffs for August, driven by lower wholesale natural gas costs, down to roughly 25 euros per MWh from recent levels of between 32 and 35 euros per MWh at the TTF index.

The tariff drop, expected to reach as much as 5 percent, including discounts, should result in a retail price range of between 0.07 and 0.175 euros per KWh for consumers.

By law, suppliers need to announce their nominal tariffs – not including subsidies – for every forthcoming month by the 20th of each previous month.

It remains unknown if the energy ministry will offer consumers electricity subsidies for August. If it chooses to do so, the aforementioned price levels will drop even lower.

Meanwhile, the government will soon need to make decisions concerning the electricity market’s transition from subsidy support for consumers to the return of indexation clauses, currently suspended.

According to sources, the energy ministry has yet to make final decisions and is discussing details with RAAEY, the Regulatory Authority for Waste, Energy and Water.

Most electricity suppliers have called for a gradual crossover through maintenance of the current framework for an additional two to three months beyond September 30, when emergency measures are scheduled to end.

TTF index brief surge keeps suppliers cautious on prices

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A brief surge of the TTF gas index on June 15, lifting wholesale prices by approximately 80 percent, compared to June 1, to over 41 euros per MWh from 23 euros per MWh, came as a clear reminder that the energy crisis is not yet over and will keep electricity retailers cautious about their pricing policies.

Electricity suppliers can be expected to act carefully and disrupt hefty price cuts when they make announcements tomorrow on their retail prices for July.

Based on recent market rules, suppliers are required to announce their respective electricity tariffs for each forthcoming month by the 20th of every preceding month.

According to sources, July’s retail electricity price levels should remain virtually unchanged, while some marginal reductions have not been ruled out.

Market players have pointed out that, besides the market’s volatility, two taxes are also affecting their ability to subdue retail electricity prices in the Greek market.

One of the two taxes is a 5 percent levy on the TTF index price of gas purchased by domestic electricity produces for their power plants. The other is an energy supply security tax of 2.5 euros per MWh. The two taxes combined increase electricity prices by between 9 and 10 euros per MWh as they are passed on to consumers.

It remains unknown if retail electricity prices in July will be subsidized by the caretaker government. This will become clear following next weekend’s second round in the country’s general election.

 

 

Natural gas price spike prompts new market alert

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News that the Netherlands intends to soon stop production at Groningen, one of Europe’s largest gas fields, as a result of earthquake-related risks, pushed gas prices up by 28 percent yesterday, not surprising, as Groningen is a key gas source for countries in Europe’s west.

The development has made even more urgent the intention of Greece and Spain, along with other EU member states, to reestablish a common front as protection against the outbreak of any new energy crisis.

This group plans to request the continuation of a windfall earnings recovery mechanism in the wholesale electricity market when EU energy ministers meet on Monday to discuss a new structure for the bloc’s energy market.

The Dutch TTF benchmark has risen 113 percent over the past 15 days, from 23 euros per MWh to 49 euros per MWh yesterday, before easing off to 39 euros per MWh.

A temporary disruption of operations at some of Norway’s gas fields has unsettled European markets. Though production at these Norwegian gas fields will soon be normalized, the Netherlands have yet to reach a final decision on the country’s Groningen gas field. However, it is expected to continue producing should a new energy crisis hit Europe or if its upcoming winter is a cold one.

At this stage, ambiguity prevails as it remains unclear if Europe’s natural gas market finds itself at the onset of a new upward trajectory.

A sudden increase in LNG demand in Asia as a result of China’s post-pandemic return to full production is another major concern for European energy market players. Such a development promises to escalate prices.

 

No major tariff changes seen for May, support maintained

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Next month’s retail electricity tariffs, due to be announced tomorrow by the country’s suppliers, are expected to remain largely unchanged compared to the previous month as a result of low prices at the TTF index and relative stability at the energy exchange.

By law, introduced last summer, all suppliers are required to announce their nominal tariffs for each forthcoming month by the 20th of each preceding month.

If the forecasts for May price levels are confirmed, nominal tariffs – not including subsidies – offered by suppliers will range between 0.105 and 0.1995 euros per KWh.

If the energy ministry decides to subsidize electricity bills for yet another month, as it has done throughout the energy crisis, then households can expect finalized retail prices to range between 0.09 and 0.1845 euros per KWh.

Though energy prices have deescalated considerably since the start of the energy crisis, authorities are expected to keep offering support to consumers until the end of the year.

The energy ministry has just launched an online platform, e-katanalotis, on which electricity users may check tariffs offered by suppliers.

Natural gas price increases seen as inevitable following oil-price rally

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A rise in natural gas prices appears inevitable as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices prompted by a drastic cutback in oil production decided on by the eight-member OPEC+ group.

Dutch TTF gas futures rose by as much as 30 percent over the past ten days before easing.

TTF gas futures for May are priced at 45 euros per MWh, but rise for ensuing months. July futures are currently at 46.3 euros per MWh, August futures are at 47.1 euros per MWh, September futures are at 48.6 euros per MWh, October futures are at 52 euros per MWh and November futures are at 57.9 euros per MWh.

In comments to energypress, local energy company officials shared concerns of a new round of gas price increases, noting conditions are currently fluid but will clear up over the next few weeks.

The impact of the rise in oil prices is already being felt at retail level in the US, while Europe is also bracing for an ascent as the price of crude shapes the price of natural gas by a coefficient of at least 50 percent, according to IEA.

If applied to its full extent, as of May 23, the OPEC+ decision to slash oil production could have greater impact on natural gas prices than Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading analysts, including Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS (Oil Price Information Service), have noted.

 

Suppliers spared of €10/MWh cost on electricity producers

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Electricity suppliers will no longer be factoring into their tariffs a special surcharge of 10 euros per MWh on natural gas used for generation purposes following a recent revision to this extraordinary measure.

The country’s power retailers are currently working on their tariffs for April, due to be announced on Monday, based on a recent law requiring suppliers to announce price levels for every forthcoming month by the 20th of each preceding month.

Though the aforementioned flat-rate surcharge no longer applies, electricity producers have not been entirely spared of special contributions. An amendment that came into effect this month now requires electricity producers to contribute to the state a monthly surcharge that is equivalent to 5 percent of the TTF natural gas index.

The now-terminated special surcharge of 10 euros per MWh on natural gas used by producers for generation purposes is estimated to have increased retail electricity bills by 18 to 20 euros per MWh.

Though the eventual cost – for consumers – of the new TTF-based surcharge remains unknown, it will definitely be lower than costs resulting from the flat-rate formula. Lower TTF levels will mean lower related costs for electricity producers, which, by extension, will enable suppliers to offer reduced retail prices.

Suppliers are expected to announce reduced tariffs for April on the 20th of this month as wholesale electricity prices and the TTF index have been on  downward trajectories.

Independent suppliers are forecast to offer tariffs of around 0.20 euros per kWh, a reduction of 0.02 to 0.03 euros per kWh compared to levels for March. Power utility PPC may lower its prices below 0.20 euros per kWh, according to unconfirmed reports.

These lower prices will essentially not offer reduced prices for consumers, but the government’s subsidy support policy, keeping retail power prices at levels of between 14 to 16 cents per KWh, will cost the administration less.

 

Electricity prices deescalating for third successive month

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Wholesale electricity prices appear set to deescalate for a third successive month, prompting market officials to interpret the trend as a definite sign of price normalization, since January.

Even so, some market officials warn the market remains volatile and could still be significantly impacted by various unfavorable events.

Price levels in the first half of March were below those of the equivalent period in February.

Average wholesale electricity prices at the energy exchange over the past couple of days were below 100 euros per MWh, at 89.74 and 97.42 euros per MWh, respectively.

Earlier this month, wholesale electricity price levels ranged between 106 and 160 euros per MWh, compared to between 137 and 168 euros per MWh in the first half of February.

Wholesale electricity prices averaged 191.79 euros per MWh in January and dropped to an average of 156.24 euros per MWh in February, levels well below December’s average of 276.89 euros per MWh.

The natural gas market’s TTF index has followed a similar course. It ranged between 85 and 140 euros per MWh in December, fell to levels of between 65 and 68 euros per MWh in January, and has dropped to levels as low as 42 euros per MWh in recent days. The TTF has since edged up to levels of between 49 and 52 euros per MWh over the past three days.

Electricity retailers are expected to announce lower prices for April in a few days’ time. By law, power suppliers in Greece are required to announce their prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of every preceding month.

 

 

Revisions aim to reduce energy cost for most consumers

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The energy ministry is moving ahead with three revisions intended to lighten the burden of electricity bills for most consumers. Two of the changes were included in a draft bill submitted to Parliament late last Friday night, while a third revision has been attached to a RES-sector draft bill forwarded for consultation.

These measures include a new formula changing the way a special levy imposed on electricity producers is calculated. It is planned to now be calculated as 5 percent of the average TTF gas index price, an initiative that should lessen the levy’s cost for electricity companies and, by extension, the cost of electricity for consumers.

This special levy on electricity producers was introduced in November at a fixed rate of 10 euros per MWh.

Also, several low and medium-voltage consumer categories – including industrial consumers and farmers – will be exempted from a public service compensation (YKO) charge included in electricity bills.

In addition, a legislative revision is planned to pave the way for power purchase agreements (PPAs), offering industrial consumers renewable energy supply agreements over long-term periods.

DEPA cancels 2 LNG orders submitted to TotalEnergies

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A sharp reduction in domestic natural gas consumption has prompted gas utility DEPA to cancel two LNG orders submitted to TotalEnergies a few months ago as part of the country’s overall effort to bolster energy security ahead of this winter period, energypress sources have informed.

The cancellation will not come without repercussions as DEPA, based on the agreement’s terms, will be required to pay TotalEnergies compensation of approximately 10 million euros for each cancelled order. This sum may be covered by the Energy Transition Fund, as foreseen by law.

DEPA’s cancellations concern two LNG orders submitted in September, each for 10 TWh quantities. These orders were secured at particularly competitive prices as other indices besides the TTF were also factored into the pricing formula to lower the price level. At the time, the TTF was as much as 90 euros per MWh higher than other platforms also used for such transactions in the European market.

The two DEPA orders were planned for delivery between November, 2022 and March, 2023 as cover in the event of a disruption of Russian gas supply to Greece. But the orders have ended up proving excessive given the prevailing conditions.

Levy on gas-fueled power hurts producer competitiveness

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An extraordinary levy of 10 euros per MWh imposed, as of November 1, on the country’s natural gas-fueled power stations has proven detrimental to their level of competitiveness, greatly contributing to the adverse market conditions they face.

The situation has further deteriorated for electricity producers during the first weeks of the new year, as reflected by the level of wholesale electricity prices in Greece, the highest among neighboring EU member states, despite a considerable TTF index drop in natural gas prices.

This extraordinary levy of 10 euros per MWh on natural gas purchased by gas-fueled electricity producers was introduced when gas prices at the TTF index ranged between 120 and 130 euros per MW, representing approximately 8 percent of the TTF. However, as a result of the sharp decline in natural gas prices to levels of between 55 and 60 euros per MWh, this levy has now risen to represent roughly 14 percent of the TTF.

The increased electricity production cost has led to a rise in electricity imports, even if hailing from older, higher-emitting facilities.

In the first twenty days of January, electricity imports ranged between 20 and 40 percent of Greece’s energy mix, well over the 2022 average of just 8 percent.

During this twenty-day period, the cost of wholesale electricity in Greece, averaging 239.98 euros per MWh, was the highest in the EU.

February power tariffs to be lowered, conditions favorable

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Sliding electricity prices on the energy exchange, since mid-January, and the continuing drop in natural gas prices at the TTF index are creating favorable conditions for lower retail electricity prices.

A first retail market sign of these improved conditions is expected tomorrow, when suppliers post their February prices based on a recently introduced market rule requiring them to announce their prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the previous month.

Suppliers are expected to drop their nominal price levels for next month as low as 0.20 to 0.25 euros per KWh, not including anticipated state subsidies.

According to sources, power utility PPC, the dominant market player, is not prepared to drop its retail electricity price so low for next month, but it will offer a significant cut on its January offer.

Once retail electricity prices for February are out, the energy ministry will set subsidies so that finalized retail prices drop to a level of 0.09 euros per KWh.

The day-ahead market’s average price for electricity has set a new low, falling, today, to 58.44 euros per MWh, from 204.40 euros per MWh just days ago. It should be noted that suppliers take into account a broader time period when calculating their prices for each forthcoming month.

The TTF gas index has also plunged in recent weeks to levels of between 55 and 60 euros per MWh, well below levels of 150 euros per MWh in December.

 

Nominal electricity tariffs to be cut by over 50% for February

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Electricity suppliers are expected to announce nominal tariff reductions of more than 50 percent for February this Friday, the 20th of the month and, under recently introduced market rules, the monthly deadline date for tariff announcements concerning each forthcoming month.

This anticipated electricity price reduction for next month has been shaped by favorable conditions at the TTF gas index, now down to levels of between 63 and 65 euros per MWh.

Nominal electricity tariffs – before subsidies are factored in – for the current month range between 0.358 and 0.489 euros per KWh, but are expected to plunge to levels of between 0.20 and 0.22 euros per KWh for February.

Electricity subsidies funded by the Energy Transition Fund brought down this month’s nominal rates for finalized electricity retail rates of between 0.03 and 0.15 euros per KWh.

In Greece, TTF gas index reductions do not directly impact the electricity market as power suppliers base their price levels on gas prices of the previous month.

The country’s electricity prices are greatly shaped by natural gas prices as natural gas typically represents approximately 40 percent of the Greek energy mix.

Gas prices down after EU price cap agreement, big test in spring

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Natural gas prices are on a downward trajectory, confirming projections that an EU gas price cap agreement, reached earlier this week, would help contain international prices.

Yesterday, wholesale gas prices dropped to below 100 euros per MWh for the first time in months, ending the day at 97.752 euros per MWh. During trading today, the price level has dropped as low as 96.325 euros per MWh.

Though the gas price cap appears to be having a calming affect on international gas prices for now, the mechanism is expected to face a tougher test in spring, when gas demand will be greater as EU member states move to refill storage facilities following winter.

EU energy ministers agreed to trigger a cap if prices exceed 180 euros per MWh for three days at the Dutch TTF index, which serves as the European benchmark.

 

EU gas price cap agreement sends firm message to markets

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The EU’s gas price cap agreement yesterday, achieved following months of deliberation, comes as a major European step that offers energy-cost protection to households and businesses, while also sending a strong message to markets that natural gas purchases will not be made at any price.

EU energy ministers agreed to trigger a cap if natural gas prices exceed 180 euros per MWh for three days at the Dutch TTF index, which serves as the European benchmark. The cap could serve as a crucial tool against any future price surge, as was the case last summer.

Gas price levels are not expected to fall immediately. Even so, the TTF index did drop to 107 euros per MWh yesterday, following the EU’s gas price cap agreement.

It is impossible to predict whether the price cap will prove effective enough to contain gas prices below 100 euros per MWh on a permanent basis and level out wild price fluctuations swinging over 30 euros per MWh in a single day.

Also, it remains to be seen how individual market players will respond if demand increases and gas prices escalate to levels near 180 euros per MWh in the months ahead. If they please, buyers and sellers could establish bilateral agreements above the price cap level, essentially nullifying it.

 

 

Higher retail electricity prices expected for January

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Retail electricity prices for January, set to be announced tomorrow by suppliers, are expected to rise, pushed higher by increased wholesale prices, sources have informed.

Wholesale electricity prices have averaged approximately 300 euros per MWh on the day-ahead market since the beginning of December, up roughly 45 percent compared to June’s average of 205.86 euros per MWh for the equivalent 19-day period.

Even though electricity prices have plunged 50 percent on the energy exchange over the past six days, to 200 euros per MWh from nearly 400 euros per MWh on December 14, suppliers cannot risk subduing prices to December levels. The jittery mood at the Dutch TTF index has not left Greece’s energy exchange unaffected.

January’s electricity prices to be delivered tomorrow by the country’s suppliers – based on a recently introduced rule requiring them to announce their respective price levels for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the preceding month – are expected to range between 0.35 euros per KWh and 0.41 euros per KWh. Supplier prices in December ranged between 0.27 euros per KWh and 0.38 euros per KWh.

Finalized prices for consumers will be lowered by state subsidies offered by the government for electricity. The government is expected to engineer, through subsidies, price levels for households and businesses to between 0.15 euros per KWh and 0.17 euros per KWh.

EU headed for new impasse on gas price cap agreement

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The EU’s energy ministers appear headed towards another deadlock for a gas price cap agreement at an upcoming council meeting on December 13, which will prove a disappointment for Europeans as prices surge again.

Several EU member states seem to be resisting any sort of compromise for the establishment of a gas price cap level ahead of next week’s meeting of energy ministers, a measure now more urgent than ever before as winter temperatures begin to fall.

Gas prices surged yesterday at the Dutch energy exchange, a European benchmark, reaching 160 euros per MWh before easing to 140 euros per MWh and ending the day at 138 euros per MWh.

Though the prospect of high-priced natural gas is alarming, a price cap agreement does not appear to be a priority for a group of EU member states, led by Germany. Berlin, according to sources, wants the issue deferred until a summit of EU leaders, scheduled for next Thursday, two days after the meeting of EU energy ministers.

This, of course, would be a setback as it was at the previous summit, in October, that EU leaders referred the issue to the Energy Council, asking its members to work on details of an agreement reached by the 27 EU leaders.

Germany, joined by the Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Estonia and Luxembourg, appears to be insisting on gas price cap at the level initially proposed by the European Commission, 275 euros per MWh, well above the 220-euro proposal forwarded by the Czech Republic, currently holding the EU’s rotating presidency.

Soaring gas prices in Europe, up 60% in 3 weeks, ‘unjustified’

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Wholesale gas prices have surged by 60 percent over the past few weeks – widely regarded as unjustified – under the pretext of falling temperatures and increased demand, despite no supply issues as gas storage facilities around Europe are virtually full.

January derivatives on the Dutch exchange (TTF) exceeded 160 euros per MWh yesterday, reaching as high as 165 euros per MWh, the highest level since October 13, following levels as low as 105 euros per MWh during the first ten days of November.

This surge, supposedly resulting from an increase in demand, strongly suggests speculators and traders are having a field day as gas storage facilities around Europe are about 95 percent full and offer supply security.

Meanwhile, the EU’s 27 member states remain divided over the details of a possible gas price cap and are continuing their negotiations without an agreement in sight.

“In essence, the energy market is once again hostage to speculation. The volume of virtual trading in January derivatives is bought and resold ten, twenty times, or even more, creating unjustified revaluations,” Dimitris Kardomateas, former Director General of Strategy & Development at gas grid operator DESFA, told energypress. “Prices at the US Henry Hub are 22-23 euros per MWh, while, in Europe, they are now at 140-150 euros per MWh,” he added.

 

New European LNG benchmark to be shaped by EU-27 prices

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Europe’s new LNG benchmark will be determined by LNG price-level data presented by the EU’s 27 member states, the objective being to offer a broader, better-balanced and more reliable pricing formula than the existing one, shaped by the Dutch TTF index, sources have informed energypress.

ACER, Europe’s Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, will present a preliminary plan for this new market correction mechanism at a meeting in Brussels today to be attended by the EU’s permanent representative committee, Coreper, involving all EU member states.

The new European LNG benchmark, promising a more accurate reflection of international prices for LNG, the dominant global energy source at present, will not affect existing agreements, officials have pointed out.

EU officials are striving for an imminent launch of this new LNG pricing tool, the aim being to have it introduced by early 2023. Last month, the European Commission noted it wants the new LNG benchmark to be ready by March 23.

On a wider scale, although the European Commission hopes EU member states can resolve differences for a common solution to the energy crisis, there have been no indications of possible consensus. On the contrary, the North-South divide remains and expectations for a common European approach to the issue this winter are extremely low.

Heating cost comparisons for November still unclear

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Heating energy cost comparisons for November regarding natural gas and heating oil remain unclear. Should gas utility DEPA reduce its subsidies, as is anticipated following a sharp recent drop in international gas prices, heating oil would become marginally cheaper, even if heating oil subsidies at refineries are disrupted, as long as the Brent index does not continue rising.

The retail price of natural gas in Greece is currently at 11 to 12 cents per KWh, a level that would exceed 20 cents per KWh without DEPA’s subsidy of 9 cents per KWh. Subsidies of such extent are currently unnecessary as a result of the recent plunge in natural gas prices, dropping to 99 cents per MWh (TTF) yesterday.

This major drop in gas prices will inevitably prompt a reduction in gas subsidies. It is still unclear if energy minister Kostas Skrekas will make any related announcements today or hold back for a latter date.

Heating oil prices have been subdued at a level of 1.35 euros per liter, or 12 to 13 cents per KWh, as a result of two separate subsidies, a state subsidy, to be provided until at least the end of the year, worth 25 cents per liter, and an additional subsidy of 7.5 cents per liter, being offered by refineries until the end of October, according to their announcements. It remains unclear if refineries will continue subsidizing heating oil beyond October.

Brussels seeks to prevent internal EU bidding for LNG

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A European Commission proposal for joint European gas orders, one of the most crucial aspects of Brussels’ energy-crisis package to be discussed at tomorrow’s EU summit, aims, besides boosting Europe’s bargaining power, to prevent EU member states from bidding against each other, an unwanted prospect that would increase prices, ultimately favoring stronger members.

The Brussels proposals also include a measure that would discourage speculation in derivatives through the establishment of a temporary intraday price-increase mechanism. It would protect market players from huge price fluctuations within the same day by setting limits. TTF fluctuations above and below limits set will be prohibited, according to this proposal.

The details of how these two proposals could actually work remain to be seen.

“The LNG market is in danger of becoming a jungle. Things will be tight in coming years and a first-come, first-served logic could prevail. In practice, this means bigger countries will manage to buy faster and cheaper than smaller ones, so a brake is needed,” Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economics at the National Technical University of Athens, told energypress.

Unrestricted competition between countries would drive up prices, undesired by all, as an oligopoly exists in LNG supply, the professor added.

November electricity prices, out tomorrow, down 15-20%

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The country’s electricity suppliers, now finalizing their pricing policies for next month, are expected to announce, tomorrow, reduced tariffs for November, down by 15 to 20 percent compared to the current month’s levels, sources have informed.

Based on new law, suppliers are required to announce their electricity prices for the forthcoming month by the 20th of each preceding month.

Supplier tariffs, sources informed, should range between 0.45 to 0.50 euros per MWh, which, if confirmed, will result in a reduction of between 15 and 20 percent, compared to October’s prices.

The government’s level of subsidy support for electricity bills next month has yet to be announced. Given the current de-escalation in electricity prices, the government may choose to only rely on the Energy Transition Fund for next month’s subsidies and not use any budget money for this purpose, sources said.

Market analysts are projecting further electricity price reductions until the end of the year as a result of a drop in TTF natural gas prices. The Dutch index has fallen by 66 percent since an August 26 peak of 349.90 euros per MWh, reaching 116.45 euros per MWh yesterday.

The EU’s overachievement of gas storage levels, now averaging 91 percent of capacity, as well as an abundance of LNG supply to Europe, are key factors that have driven down the TTF.