Gazprom gas supply clauses now a major burden for DEPA

Gas utility DEPA, whose long-term pipeline gas supply agreements with Gazprom have developed into a heavy burden amid a changing market of sharply reduced gas prices, is seeking more favorable terms.

Talks between the two sides have commenced but Gazprom officials do not appear willing to reexamine details at any great depth, sourced informed.

DEPA’s agreements with Gazprom, which include take-or-pay clauses, are no longer competitive. The Greek utility, on one of its unfavorable fronts, is pushing for a favorable revision to its take-or-pay clause concerning supply in 2019.

DEPA absorbed approximately 500 million cubic meters less than it had agreed last year, a shortage expected to cost about 100 million euros, based on the current supply terms agreed with Gazprom.

It is believed DEPA may escape with a smaller payment for 2019 and have leftover quantities transferred to future years.

Even so, the gas utility still faces a major problem for 2020. DEPA recently had its Gazprom supply contract for the year revised so that 40 percent of supply is indexed to the Dutch gas trading platform TTF, one of Europe’s biggest hubs. The other 60 percent has remained oil-indexed.

DEPA’s oil-indexed 60 percent of Gazprom supply for 2020 is far more expensive than LNG prices currently available in the market, meaning the gas utility will not be able to sell this proportion to  customers.

Essentially, DEPA’s ability to sell its Gazprom supply of gas in 2020 will be restricted to the TTF-indexed 40 percent proportion.

DEPA’s first-quarter results are not impressive and the situation seems set to deteriorate as international LNG prices keep sliding amid the global financial impact of the coronavirus pandemic. It is feared DEPA’s take-or-pay clause cost for 2020 will exceed the 500 million amount estimated for 2019.

Natural gas, LNG, CO2 right, wholesale power prices down

Besides lower oil prices in international markets over the past few days as a result of the coronavirus spread and price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, energy commodities across the board are under great pressure, which has led to price reductions for natural gas, CO2 emission rights and electricity.

Lower oil and gas prices are offering relief for the economy and enterprises. However, there are two sides to this story, positive and negative. On the one hand, the price drops are creating opportunities for suppliers and consumers, while, on the other, natural gas futures indicate a decline until the end of the third quarter this year, meaning markets anticipate a downward trajectory in Chinese consumption and no sign of an economic rebound until at least September.

Prices at the Dutch trading platform TTF, a key index for LNG, slid to a three-month low on Monday, registering 8.627 dollars per MMBTU, before edging up to 8.993 dollars per MMBTU yesterday. This index has fallen 39.4 percent since the end of December’s three-month peak of 14.2 dollars per MMBTU.

Besides shaping LNG prices, according to new pricing formulas adopted at Gazprom, the TTF also greatly influences the rise of Russian pipeline gas.

CO2 emission right prices have fallen by 13.6 percent between December and early February, from 26.74 euros per ton to 23.11 euros per ton. A slight rise has been registered this week, to 23.25 euros per ton on Monday and 24.07 euros per ton on Tuesday. Lower prices on this front are favorable for lignite-fired power stations as well as energy-intensive industries.

Prices have also fallen in Greece’s wholesale electricity market. In the day-ahead market, the System Marginal Price (SMP) fell from 49.2 euros per MWh on Friday to 41.42 euros per MWh on Monday before edging up to 43.12 euros per MWh yesterday. A rise to 50.44 euros per MWh is expected today.

 

France’s Total wins intensely fought tender for 3 LNG orders

France’s Total has emerged as the winning bidder in an intensely contested tender staged by Greek power utility PPC for three LNG shipments between March and May, sources from abroad have informed.

The French company outbid rivals for all three shipments, totaling 2.66 million MWh, but price levels were driven to particularly low levels as a result of intense bidding, the same sources noted.

Over the past few weeks, LNG prices in Asia have slumped to record lows, including yesterday, battered by the negative impact of the coronavirus on trade. Many Chinese factories have been forced to interrupt operations. Meanwhile, US LNG is flooding markets.

Given the combined effect of these market conditions, many of twelve bidders said to have participated in PPC’s tender were prepared to submit offers as low as one percent below the Dutch TTF index, which has tumbled to a level of approximately 10 euros per MWh over the past few days.

Of the twelve participants in the PPC tender, whose deadline expired on Wednesday, the five most competitive candidates were asked to make their best and final offers yesterday.

PPC wants a first LNG shipment of 900,000 MWh on March 24, a second delivery of 815,000 MWh on April 21 and a third of 950,000 MWh on May 20.

This tender confirms a change of strategy by PPC, searching markets around the world, from Asia to Qatar and the USA to Russia, for low-priced LNG.

DEPA, rebounding in wholesale market, looks to capture 40%

Gas utility DEPA appears set to regain lost ground in the wholesale market as a result of reduced gas prices negotiated over the past few months with international suppliers.

Talks for new deals between the company’s administration and customers, primarily electricity producers and retail gas firms, have indicated DEPA’s market share will increase this year.

DEPA expects a market share rise to a level of approximately 40 percent, up from 33 percent at the end of 2019.

The Greek gas utility recently renegotiated improved supply deals with Russia’s Gazprom and Algeria’s Sonatrach, while a favorable verdict by the ICC (International Court of Arbitration) in an overcharging case against Botas, Turkey’s state-run crude oil and gas company, came as an added boost. DEPA should receive a retroactive amount of around 200 million euros, according to an initial estimate.

DEPA’s revised Gazprom supply deal limits oil-indexed gas pricing to 60 percent of the total order. The other 40 percent will be priced in accordance with the Dutch gas trading platform TTF, one of Europe’s biggest hubs, where prices are significantly lower.

In mid-January, TTF price levels for LNG shipments in February were 14 euros per MW/h, including Greek gas grid entry costs, compared to over 20.5 euros per MW/h for pipeline gas, a 45 percent difference.

DEPA is currently also renegotiating the terms of its take-or-pay clause with Gazprom, requiring the Greek utility to absorb at least 80 percent of its annual contracted amount of 2 billion cubic meters, or 1.6 bcm.

As for Sonatrach, supplying LNG to DEPA, the Greek utility is believed to have reduced amounts and also achieved a discount.

DEPA’s contract with Gazprom, the utility’s biggest in terms of volume, runs until the end of 2026 with an option for a 10-year extension. ICC

The Greek gas utility’s second-biggest contract is with Azerbaijan’s Socar, running until 2040 for one bcm per year and a minimum level of 0.9 bcm. The Turkish Botas contact is DEPA’s third biggest, securing 0.75 bcm, annually, until 2021.

DEPA achieves vastly improved terms for Gazprom supply deal

Greek gas utility DEPA, headed for privatization, has negotiated a vastly improved gas supply deal with Russia’s Gazprom whose terms also factor in price levels at the Dutch gas trading platform TTF, one of Europe’s biggest hubs.

The new arrangement, virtually finalized but with mere formalities pending, drastically reduces the supply cost for DEPA. Until now, the Greek gas utility’s supply price has been oil indexed.

Under the new agreement, TTF price levels will play a key role. The TTF will count for 40 percent of DEPA’s supply price while 60 percent will be oil indexed.

Just days ago, price levels at the Dutch hub were approximately 14 euros per MW/h compared to over 20.5 euros per MW/h for pipeline gas, a 46 percent difference.

DEPA has also achieved an improved take-or-pay clause in its agreement with Gazprom, offering greater flexibility to the Greek utility.

Under the previous terms of the take-or-pay clause, DEPA needed to absorb at least 80 percent of its annual contracted amount of 2 billion cubic meters, or 1.6 bcm.

Improved Gazprom deal raises DEPA in the eyes of investors

Lower-price deals sealed or about to be sealed between gas utility DEPA and its international suppliers are among the factors the government is relying on for a successful privatization procedure of the gas utility, a procedure launched yesterday, beginning with DEPA Trade, one of DEPA’s two new entities formed for the sale.

DEPA is believed to have renegotiated a far more favorable supply deal with Russia’s Gazprom, the Greek utility’s biggest supplier.

Forty percent of DEPA’s natural gas orders from Gazprom will no longer be pegged to fluctuating international oil prices. Instead, this percentage of DEPA’s Gazprom orders will be linked to price levels of Dutch gas trading platform TTF, one of Europe’s biggest hubs. Just days ago, prices at TTF were about half those of pipeline gas. The other 60 percent of DEPA’s orders with Gazprom will remain oil indexed.

This development promises to make DEPA’s supply deals with Gazprom far more competitive. Prospective bidders already appear to be warming to the prospect.

Major Greek corporate groups such as Mytilineos, Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) – already holding a 35 percent stake in DEPA and considering teaming up with its Elpedison partner Edison for the DEPA sale – GEK Terna and Motor Oil are believed to be gearing up for bids. The Copelouzos group’s involvement in the DEPA Trade sale is considered certain – in a partnership with Czech entrepreneur Karel Komarek, holding a key stake in Greek lottery OPAP.

DEPA awaiting Gazprom news for lower gas price, LNG a market hit

Gas utility DEPA, which has asked for a lower natural gas supply price from Gazprom, can expect a response around June 15, the Russian gas giant has informed.

DEPA was driven to action by extremely low spot-market prices for LNG currently available in Europe.

Major European hubs, such as the TTF facility in the Netherlands, are currently offering prices of 10.928 euros per MWh, compared to Gazprom’s supply contract for the Balkans, including Greece, of approximately 20 euros per MWh.

It remains to be seen how DEPA will respond if the price-related news from Gazprom is not favorable.

LNG is projected to have captured roughly 55 percent of western European energy markets five years from now, up from approximately 40 percent last year, authorities told a recent forum in Brussels.

According to the World Energy Council, LNG will capture a 51 percent share of the global market by 2025, from 25 percent in 2000 and 45 percent in 2018, as a result of new production line investments in the USA, Qatar and Australia.

Lower LNG prices have coincided with an upgrade at the LNG terminal on Revythoussa, an islet just off Athens, resulting in its capacity increase to 220,000 cubic meters. This has enabled bigger incoming shipments.

So far this year, LNG shipments have arrived from Qatar and the USA. More are expected.

Meanwhile, DEPA’s domestic market share for LNG supply is on a downward trajectory and currently at around 30 percent as a result of intensifying competition.