Major LNG terminals being developed in various parts of Europe, including Greece and Germany, in response to reduced Russian gas supply, could fail to achieve full commercial potential as the continent may end up possessing a far greater number of such facilities than required by 2030, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned.

If REPower EU objectives are attained and Turkish gas demand remains steady, then European demand for LNG will be restricted to a level of just 150 billion cubic meters in 2030, down from 175 bcm in 2022, IEEFA pointed out. At such a level in 2030, LNG terminals in Europe would operate at less than 40 percent of capacity.

IEEFA also stressed that European gas operators have an incentive to over-expand their infrastructure and asset base in order to deliver profits to shareholders, even if projects do not end up being fully utilized.

Existing legislation provides operators with guaranteed revenues collected through tariffs, IEEFA pointed out. Evidence strongly suggests the Russian attack on Ukraine has accelerated Europe’s energy transition by dramatically boosting the penetration of green technologies that reduce demand for gas and LNG, the institute added.