Brussels forecasts lower gas prices, concerned about oil

The European Commission has projected energy prices falling at a slower rate for the remainder of 2023 before rising again in 2024, especially for oil prices.

Brussels made its forecast before OPEC+ announced it would extend production cuts until the end of this year, which pushed the price of Brent up to a level of 90 dollars per barrel.

As for electricity and natural gas prices, the European Commission report notes prices have fallen since spring.

For the third quarter of 2023, the European Commission expects price levels to be 21 percent lower for natural gas and 25 percent lower for electricity, compared to its previous estimates.

Brussels has forecast an electricity price average of 109 euros per MWh in 2023 and 140 euros per MWh in 2024, down from 130 and 160 euros per MWh, respectively, in its spring report. This revision was attributed to a rapid expansion of liquefaction terminals on the continent and full gas storage facilities.

The Brussels report projects economic growth of 0.8 percent this year in the Eurozone and the EU, slightly below a previous 1 percent growth forecast, while economic growth in 2024 is seen reaching 1.3 percent, down from 1.6 percent projected in the spring report.

The German economy, Europe’s biggest, is now seen contracting by 0.4 percent this year, rather than growing 0.2 percent, as was previously projected.

EU industrial production fell by 1.1 percent in the second quarter of 2023, compared with the previous quarter, despite falling energy prices, the Brussels report noted.