A steady rise in the TTF index over the past few days, following more than a year of decline, has market players concerned about the direction natural gas prices could take for the rest of this year.

The TTF, Europe’s gas benchmark, had fallen to as low as 23 euros per MWh a few weeks ago but has now rebounded, reaching a level of 28 euros per MWh yesterday. Gas futures dated December, 2024 and onwards are currently priced at over 30 euros per MWh.

The rising trend comes following a very mild winter of low consumption, which, however, was higher compared to last year.

Market players do not appear to be fully convinced by Europe’s extension of measures aiming to reduce demand for yet another year, until the end of next winter.

The recent insecurity that has crept into the market appears to stem from Europe’s anticipated loss of Russian gas imported via a Ukrainian corridor. A five-year pipeline gas transit agreement between Kyiv and Moscow for Russian gas supply to Europe via Ukraine expires at the beginning of 2025. Ukraine has declared it does not intend to renew this agreement.

This bilateral agreement’s end is expected to reduce the EU’s total gas imports by 5 percent. The loss will need to be offset by an increase in LNG shipments.

Unfavorable news from across the Atlantic has further unsettled market players. Natural gas producers such as EQT have decided to reduce output as a result of extremely low gas prices in the domestic market.

The downward trajectory of the TTF in recent months was driven by weak demand in Asia, including China, a trend whose continuation cannot be depended on. Also, the EU cannot count on next winter being as mild as the previous two winters.