The cost of solar energy production will fall by 50 percent over the next few years, when this technology’s contribution to global electricity generation will have reached 8 percent, up from 2 percent registered last year, Ramez Naam, a leading analyst specializing in energy transition matters, has projected.
Solar energy production is currently breaking one record after another in various parts of the world. The downward trajectory is still at an early stage, according to Naam, a former computer scientist at Microsoft.
Once the PV sector’s contribution to global electricity generation reaches 8 percent, this technology’s production cost can be expected to drop to levels of about 2.5 cents per KWh in the world’s sunniest locations, such as California. PV production costs in Europe’s north can be expected to drop to levels of about 4 to 5 cents per KWh, Naam has estimated.
He predicts near-zero solar production costs in the world’s sunniest locations by 2030 to 2035.
Global solar energy production will eventually reach 19.2 TW, in the distant future, the analyst projected.
The International Energy Agency, in its most recent World Energy Outlook report, projected solar energy production will soon grow at an annual rate of 16 percent.
The cost of solar energy production has fallen by as much as five to eight times over the past decade, in certain parts of the world, and by 350 times compared to levels registered back in 1979.