The rupture in Israeli-Turkish ties, vanishing any hope of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s unlikely proposal for the transfer of Israeli gas to Europe via a Turkish transit route, threatens to rebalance ties in the wider region and reshape the east Mediterranean’s energy map. Hydrocarbon exploration plans and major projects in the east Mediterranean will be impacted.

As an initial consequence, Erdogan’s open support for Hamas in the Israel-Gaza war ends any hope of Turkish collaboration with Israel on energy interests for a very long time.

Up until the outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war earlier this month, the Turkish president had seized on every opportunity to claim a role for Turkey as a constructive player on the east Mediterranean’s energy map.

Erdogan had proposed a closer energy partnership with Israel during a meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in New York last month, even though such a prospect would have been highly improbable, given Israel’s mistrust of Turkey.

The latest deterioration in Israeli-Turkish ties provides Cyprus and Greece with an opportunity to establish themselves as trusted transit partners for transportation of Israeli natural gas to Europe.

Turkey could now reemerge as an aggressive player in the region, which could prompt Ankara to engage in illegal hydrocarbon exploration and drilling at undefined areas, as was the case in 2020, or even obstruct exploration and drilling plans by ExxonMobil consortium off Crete, testing Greek-Turkish ties.