Natural gas will continue being a key price setter of the system marginal price, or wholesale electricity price, in Europe in 2030, with a degree of influence similar to that of the present, despite the deepening penetration of renewables in the continent’s energy mix, a latest study by the European Commission’s Joint Research Center has projected.

Natural gas-fueled power plants will continue being an influential price-setting technology for wholesale electricity prices in 2030, despite covering only 11 percent of the generation mix, the study determined. Last year, natural gas-fueled power plants, covering 19 percent of total EU electricity demand, set system marginal price levels 55 percent of the time.

Greece is a prime example of the anticipated trend as, in 2030, natural gas is projected to be the price-setting technology for the system marginal price more than 80 percent of the time.

Natural gas will continue playing a leading role as a price-setting technology in Europe in 2030 as natural gas-fueled power stations are seen replacing higher-emitting lignite and coal-fired power stations, the study noted.

Renewables are projected to keep gaining a bigger share of Europe’s generation mix, from 46 percent at present to 67 percent by the end of the decade, the study projected.

Also, increasing cross-border grid interconnectivity in the EU will lead to lower wholesale prices and price convergence within the European market, the study pointed out.