Grid-injection cuts of renewable energy production offered to the grid will increase considerably over the next couple of years as a result of a greater presence of operating renewables combined with relatively slower incorporation of energy storage units to the grid, formulas applied to calculate prospective cuts have shown.

RES grid-injection cuts totaled 228 GW in 2023 but are expected to more than double this year, reaching over 500 GW, before skyrocketing to more than 1.5 TWh in 2025, according to projections, which is unfavorable news for RES producers and consumers, who would both benefit if this output were fully utilized.

A first wave of energy storage units is not expected to be linked to the grid until early 2026, meaning grid operators will have no choice but to dump excess renewable energy production made available over the next two years.

At present, RES facilities in operation offer a total production capacity of between 11.5 and 12 GW, while the market penetration rate of new units entering the grid totals 2 GW, annually, and consists mostly of PVs.

At this rate, RES facility additions to the country’s grid are expected to total roughly 16 GW by 2026.

Over this period, electricity demand is projected to grow modestly, from 49 TWh in 2023 to 49.5 TWh in 2024 and 51 TWh in 2025. Such demand levels will be insufficient to fully absorb the additional RES output expected to be made available over the same period.