wholesale electricity prices

Electricity prices deescalating for third successive month

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Wholesale electricity prices appear set to deescalate for a third successive month, prompting market officials to interpret the trend as a definite sign of price normalization, since January.

Even so, some market officials warn the market remains volatile and could still be significantly impacted by various unfavorable events.

Price levels in the first half of March were below those of the equivalent period in February.

Average wholesale electricity prices at the energy exchange over the past couple of days were below 100 euros per MWh, at 89.74 and 97.42 euros per MWh, respectively.

Earlier this month, wholesale electricity price levels ranged between 106 and 160 euros per MWh, compared to between 137 and 168 euros per MWh in the first half of February.

Wholesale electricity prices averaged 191.79 euros per MWh in January and dropped to an average of 156.24 euros per MWh in February, levels well below December’s average of 276.89 euros per MWh.

The natural gas market’s TTF index has followed a similar course. It ranged between 85 and 140 euros per MWh in December, fell to levels of between 65 and 68 euros per MWh in January, and has dropped to levels as low as 42 euros per MWh in recent days. The TTF has since edged up to levels of between 49 and 52 euros per MWh over the past three days.

Electricity retailers are expected to announce lower prices for April in a few days’ time. By law, power suppliers in Greece are required to announce their prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of every preceding month.

 

 

Wholesale electricity prices up over past week

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Wholesale electricity price levels rose over the past week, the average market clearing price rising by 4.76 percent compared to the previous week to 151.95 euros per MWh, with upper and lower levels reaching 218.35 and 80.16 euros per MWh, respectively.

The past week’s highest average market clearing price was recorded on March 2, reaching 160.60 euros per MWh.

During the same period, wholesale electricity price levels in other parts of Europe ranged from 136 to 195 euros per MWh, while prices yesterday ranged from 141 and 167 euros per MWh.

Electricity demand remained low, for this time of the year, while lower RES and hydropower unit output led to a slight increase in prices at the Hellenic Energy Exchange, according to an analysis by IENE, the Institute of Energy for Southeast Europe.

RES units averaged a daily output of 36 GWh for an energy-mix share of 29 percent over the past week, official data showed. RES output totaled 251 GWh for the week, an 11 percent reduction compared to a week earlier.

Hydropower facilities covered 2 percent of demand, injecting just 16 GWh into the grid, 14 percent less than a week earlier. Natural gas-fueled power stations generated 286 GWh over the past week, covering 33 percent of demand, while lignite-fired power stations produced 145 GWh to cover 17 percent of electricity demand.

Electricity demand remained virtually unchanged over the past week, at 897.131 MWh, compared to 897.306. It peaked at 138.128 MWh last Thursday, while the week’s low was recorded on February 27, at 107.471 MWh.

The low-voltage category, including households, represented 56 percent of electricity demand over the past week, the medium-voltage category represented 19 percent of demand, the high-voltage category, or energy-intensive industry, represented 17 percent, 5 percent concerned the Cretan grid, while electricity losses of 3 percent were also recorded.

Energy price drop reduces likelihood of market revisions

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Reduced energy prices in Europe have dampened the likelihood of any major market revisions, while, given the currently mild conditions, officials are most likely to enter a period of protracted talks before reaching any decisions, developments on the first day, yesterday, of an informal meeting between EU energy ministers in Stockholm have indicated.

The opening day of talks in Sweden, holding the EU’s rotating presidency for the first half of 2023, included a session on “Energy market planning and security of supply – preparing for next winter and beyond” and will today be followed up by talks on “Future energy policy for industrial competitiveness in all Member States”.

Greece, represented by the energy ministry’s secretary-general, Alexandra Sdoukou, is upholding its long-held view in support of radical market changes that would decouple electricity prices from those of natural gas so that final prices reflect actual cost rather than be influenced by gas price fluctuations.

Though natural gas prices have levelled off lately, they remain a constant threat given pricing methods used in wholesale electricity markets.

Greece, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy and Romania support radical market changes that would stop prices being fully shaped by the day-ahead market.

Some EU member states, including Denmark and the Netherlands, are in favor of certain market changes but are steering clear of radical restructuring, while others, among them Belgium and Hungary, propose no changes to the target model.

Germany has proposed deferring talks for any market revisions until 2024.

February power tariffs to be lowered, conditions favorable

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Sliding electricity prices on the energy exchange, since mid-January, and the continuing drop in natural gas prices at the TTF index are creating favorable conditions for lower retail electricity prices.

A first retail market sign of these improved conditions is expected tomorrow, when suppliers post their February prices based on a recently introduced market rule requiring them to announce their prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the previous month.

Suppliers are expected to drop their nominal price levels for next month as low as 0.20 to 0.25 euros per KWh, not including anticipated state subsidies.

According to sources, power utility PPC, the dominant market player, is not prepared to drop its retail electricity price so low for next month, but it will offer a significant cut on its January offer.

Once retail electricity prices for February are out, the energy ministry will set subsidies so that finalized retail prices drop to a level of 0.09 euros per KWh.

The day-ahead market’s average price for electricity has set a new low, falling, today, to 58.44 euros per MWh, from 204.40 euros per MWh just days ago. It should be noted that suppliers take into account a broader time period when calculating their prices for each forthcoming month.

The TTF gas index has also plunged in recent weeks to levels of between 55 and 60 euros per MWh, well below levels of 150 euros per MWh in December.

 

Wholesale electricity prices still high despite gas price drop

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Natural gas prices fell as low as 65 euros per MWh yesterday, ending the day at 66.809 euros per MWh. Such levels, last recorded prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are being shaped by subdued gas demand, the result of mild winter weather, and high yields delivered by the RES sector.

The decline in natural gas prices has stabilized wholesale electricity prices, down to levels below 100 euros per MWh around Europe today.

Germany has registered a wholesale electricity price of 66.64 euros per MWh for today, France is at 78.81 euros per MWh, Belgium’s price is 77.99 euros per MWh, while Spain and Portugal are at 88.48 euros per MWh.

In Greece, applying a wholesale electricity pricing formula based on each preceding month’s natural gas cost average, wholesale electricity prices have remained elevated, at 211.71 euros per MWh, followed by Italy, at 195.32 euros per MWh, Malta, at 194.99 euros per MWh, and Bulgaria and Romania, both at 193.56 euros per MWh.

The average January price, so far, for wholesale electricity in Europe is highest in Greece. It is currently at 220.3 euros per MWh, followed by Italy, at 179.04 euros per MWh.

Domestically, lower wholesale electricity prices have yet to impact retail prices, already announced by suppliers from the 20th of the previous month, as required by a new market rule.

However, the drop in wholesale gas prices is gradually making impact on retail gas prices, currently declining.

 

Factories closed as a result of high energy costs, PPAs urgently needed

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A ministerial decision exempting power purchase agreements (PPAs) from a wholesale electricity market cap, a revision that would help resolve major energy-cost issues faced by the industrial sector, is expected to be signed by February 1, according to sources.

Industrial players, concerned about certain factors regarding this revision, have expressed uncertainty as to whether the ministerial decision, alone, will suffice for the exemption to be implemented or whether a legislative revision, needing more time, will also be needed. At present, a number of factories remain closed as a result of high energy costs.

Industrialists also want clarification on whether any intervention concerning operations at the energy exchange will be needed before PPAs can be exempted from the wholesale electricity market cap. If so, this would delay the revision’s implementation by a further four months, at least. Such a delay would prove devastating for industrial units, battling to deal with high energy costs.

Factories currently closed will remain shut until at least January 15. Their owners have yet to decide if they will reopen in the ensuing period. Industries that are still operating are being supplied electricity at regular wholesale prices, negatively impacting their production costs and competitiveness.

December wholesale prices second-highest in EU

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Wholesale electricity prices in Greece ranked as the EU’s second-highest in December, reaching 276.89 euros per MWh in the day-ahead market, up considerably, both on a monthly and annual basis, while electricity demand fell, a Hellenic Energy Exchange report has shown.

This December’s wholesale price level was 21.5 percent over the November price, and 18 percent above the level recorded in December, 2021.

Greece ranked second behind the common Italian and Maltese energy market, whose December price level was 294.91 euros per MWh.

Greece’s DAM prices remained high last month as a result of the country’s usage of a month-ahead model incorporating the TTF gas index. December’s electricity prices in Greece were shaped by the end-of-November price level of the TTF gas index, which ended the month at 118.68 euros per MWh.

By contrast, most other European wholesale electricity markets benefited from a drop in gas spot prices. They fell significantly in the last ten days of December to levels of 75 euros per MWh.

Limited renewable energy contributions to the country’s energy mix, down to 23 percent in December, compared to 33 percent in November, were another factor. This decline was attributed to lower wind energy output in Greece last month. On the contrary, wind energy output in central and northern Europe increased significantly during the final days of December.

Reduced trading at the day-ahead market in December, down 19 percent on December, 2021, signaled a further reduction in electricity demand last month, the Hellenic Energy Exchange report noted.

Higher retail electricity prices expected for January

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Retail electricity prices for January, set to be announced tomorrow by suppliers, are expected to rise, pushed higher by increased wholesale prices, sources have informed.

Wholesale electricity prices have averaged approximately 300 euros per MWh on the day-ahead market since the beginning of December, up roughly 45 percent compared to June’s average of 205.86 euros per MWh for the equivalent 19-day period.

Even though electricity prices have plunged 50 percent on the energy exchange over the past six days, to 200 euros per MWh from nearly 400 euros per MWh on December 14, suppliers cannot risk subduing prices to December levels. The jittery mood at the Dutch TTF index has not left Greece’s energy exchange unaffected.

January’s electricity prices to be delivered tomorrow by the country’s suppliers – based on a recently introduced rule requiring them to announce their respective price levels for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the preceding month – are expected to range between 0.35 euros per KWh and 0.41 euros per KWh. Supplier prices in December ranged between 0.27 euros per KWh and 0.38 euros per KWh.

Finalized prices for consumers will be lowered by state subsidies offered by the government for electricity. The government is expected to engineer, through subsidies, price levels for households and businesses to between 0.15 euros per KWh and 0.17 euros per KWh.

Suppliers face December losses as wholesale power prices rise

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The great risk and uncertainty faced by electricity suppliers on a monthly basis as a result of being required to forecast wholesale prices for each forthcoming month in order to calculate and announce their respective retail prices for the one-month period has come to the fore.

At present, the overwhelming majority of electricity retail prices set for December by the country’s suppliers are below wholesale price levels expected for the rest of the month as a result of a price surge over the past few days, meaning suppliers stand to incur losses this month.

Under recently introduced rules, electricity suppliers in Greece are required to announce their respective retail prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the preceding month.

Suppliers had also faced unfavorable market conditions in August, when the pricing rule was introduced. However, losses incurred that month were smaller than those expected in December.

Just three electricity suppliers have announced December retail prices that stand a chance of being above the month’s wholesale price levels, now expected to reach levels of about 385 euros per MWh.

Latest energy price surge reawakens market concerns

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Energy market prices are on the rise again, serving as an unpleasant reminder of the upward trajectory experienced in previous months. Wholesale natural gas prices are no longer in double-digit territory, as was the case in recent weeks, but have rebounded to levels of approximately 150 euros per MWh, while wholesale electricity has surged to 330 euros per MWh over the past few days.

If this trend continues, then retail prices to be paid by consumers for energy from January onwards, the heart of winter, will be pushed up.

European authorities and consumers had felt some relief as a result of mild late-autumn weather around the continent, which helped subdue energy prices in November. But fears are now been reawakened following the latest surge in energy prices.

Two key factors, both hard to predict, are now at play and will influence energy prices in Europe. The duration of China’s deeply unpopular lockdowns, subduing energy demand in China, is one factor. Europe’s ability to keep energy storage facilities filled for as long as possible is the other factor. Both these factors will determine the duration and intensity of the new upward trend in energy exchanges.

Consumers in Greece can expect to be charged among Europe’s lowest retail electricity price levels in December, as the current month’s prices are shaped by the country’s month-ahead model, requiring all suppliers to declare prices for each forthcoming month by the 20th of the preceding month.

December’s retail prices were set by suppliers on November 20, when wholesale electricity prices were down to levels of between 115 and 120 euros per MWh. It remains to be seen what lies in store from January onwards.

 

European effort for energy cost solutions well underway

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European discussion for electricity market reforms that could lead to permanent solutions for lower-cost energy by detaching the cost of electricity from natural gas is well underway.

European Commission authorities, institutions, major enterprises and other electricity market players are currently putting forward proposals until December, when Brussels is expected to issue its own proposal for consultation, as has just been noted by Mechthild Wörsdörfer, deputy director general for the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy.

Discussion for longer-term reforms is planned to continue in February and March. Reforms will need to be approved by the European Parliament, as well as by the Energy Council of Ministers, in order to become binding.

The overall approach is based on a proposal forwarded by Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economics at the National Technical University of Athens, supporting the need for remuneration of renewable energy, as well as electricity production generated by other low-emission technologies, such as nuclear, to be based on actual cost through long-term agreements rather than through the day-ahead market, whose levels are determined by wholesale market prices.

According to Kapros’ proposal, wholesale market prices should be used to determine remuneration levels for fossil fuel-based energy production technologies (coal, lignite, natural gas) as well as hydropower facilities with water reserves and energy storage units.

Wholesale power up 238% in second quarter, EU’s second-highest rise

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Greece’s wholesale electricity price registered Europe’s second-biggest annual increase in the second quarter of 2022, compared to the equivalent period a year earlier, soaring 238 percent, a new report published by the European Commission has shown.

France topped the list with a 254-percent increase over the same period, while Italy was ranked third-highest, its wholesale electricity price rising 234 percent between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022.

Greece’s 238-percent increase resulted in the country having the third-highest wholesale electricity price in the EU in the second quarter this year, at 237 euros per MWh, behind Malta, at 252 euros per MWh, and Italy, at 249 euros per MWh.

Elsewhere in the EU, Bulgaria’s wholesale electricity price in the second quarter this year was 199.9 euros per MWh, France registered 226.3 euros per MWh, and Germany was at 187.1 euros per MWh, the report showed.

As for industrial energy prices, without taxes, Greece topped the list in the second quarter. Electricity prices for mid-size industrial consumers rose by 194 percent in Greece between the second quarters of 2021 and 2022, to 34.5 cents per KWh, the highest in the EU.

In the household category, Greece’s electricity prices, including taxes and fees, were ranked 10th in the EU, at 30.46 euros per KW/h, above the EU average of 28.62 euros per KW/h, following the second-biggest annual increase, 81 percent, exceeded only by Estonia.

Subsidies were not taken into account for this report. During the energy crisis, Greece has so far offered the highest amount of subsidies as a percentage of GDP.

 

RES output doubled, wholesale electricity price plunges 44%

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Doubled RES production in recent days has been a key factor in a 44 percent decrease in the price of wholesale electricity over the past three days, down to levels last registered roughly a year ago.

Day-ahead market prices yesterday dropped to 166.12 euros per MWh, from 298.97 euros per MWh last Thursday.

Besides the doubled RES production, lower electricity demand over the weekend was cited as another factor in this price drop, according to the Hellenic Energy Exchange and power grid operator IPTO. Electricity demand dropped by roughly 20 percent over the weekend, compared to the preceding weekdays, IPTO figures showed.

On October 13, RES and hydropower facilities represented 34.4 percent of the energy mix, their participation rising to 68 percent yesterday.

As a result, natural gas and lignite-fired power stations played a lesser role over the past few days. Natural gas and lignite-fired power stations yesterday represented 8.55 percent and 4.74 percent of the energy mix, respectively, from 31.42 percent and 8.83 percent last Thursday.

Yesterday, between 12pm and 3pm, RES units covered 83 percent of the country’s energy mix.

 

Recovery mechanism for supplier windfall earnings

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The energy ministry is moving ahead with a windfall earnings recovery mechanism for electricity suppliers in an effort to counter retailer pricing inaccuracies resulting from fluctuating wholesale electricity prices.

Electricity retailers are required to set their prices each month, by the 20th of the preceding month.

Contrary to August, a month for which suppliers set retail electricity prices that underestimated wholesale electricity price levels, supplier prices set for September overestimated wholesale electricity price levels. As a result, suppliers earned excessive amounts last month. .

The new recovery mechanism will be designed to retrieve excess earnings resulting from such retail pricing inaccuracies. According to the plan, it will be applied once a year, every November, to calculate a net annual result for all electricity suppliers.

Energy minister Kostas Skrekas yesterday informed that the new mechanism will be come into effect next month.

Greek-Italian grid link repair work subduing power prices

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The Greek-Italian grid interconnection’s temporary disruption for repair work is offering partial protection against wholesale electricity price increases in Greece.

The temporary-closure period for the grid interconnection, which has been sidelined towards both directions since August 19, has just been extended until September 3 following a request made by Italy’s power grid operator Terna, according to an announcement made by IPTO, Greece’s power grid operator.

Last Friday and Saturday, the wholesale electricity price was 300 euros per MWh higher in Italy compared to Greece.

Under normal conditions, price differences between neighboring markets prompts electricity export activity towards the lower-priced country.

Greek electricity exports were considerable in July, reaching 500 GWh, data provided by IPTO showed. Of this total, 351 GWh was exported to Italy, 253 GWh to Albania, 184 GWh to North Macedonia and 90 GWh to Bulgaria.

Electricity export figures will be subdued in August as a result of the disruption of the Greek-Italian grid interconnection. The link has been closed down for repairs on numerous occasions in recent years.

 

 

Electricity suppliers revise tariffs upwards for August

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Electricity suppliers have just announced tariff revisions, upwards, for August following the government’s implementation of a five-euro price cap on fixed charges.

These tariffs will apply as of today. Deducting the state’s support, worth 33.7 cents per KWh, the revised tariffs announced by suppliers range between 14.9 and 28 cents per KWh, the majority of suppliers offering tariffs between 23 and 26 cents per KWh.

The government’s decision to impose a price cap on fixed charges – after electricity suppliers opted to increase their fixed charges to keep their tariffs, the competitive aspect of electricity bills, as low as possible – as well as the related legislative revision procedure led to a one-week delay, enabling electricity suppliers who had not made accurate forecasts for August’s international prices to reexamine and reset their levels.

Some suppliers have increased their tariffs for August by 4 to 10 cents, compared to previous levels, set on July 25.

These increases reflect the unrest of suppliers as TTF gas prices continue on an upward trajectory, steadily over 200 euros per MWh. Wholesale electricity prices are now back over 400 euros per MWh, reaching 422.02 euros per MWh today.

Combined-cycle natural gas-fueled power stations will be remunerated at a rate of 422.39 euros per MWh in August, up from 292 euros per MWh in July. Open-cycle natural gas-fueled power stations will be remunerated at a rate of 594.76 euros per MWh in August, up from 408.47 euros per MWh in July. The month-to-month remuneration change for lignite-based production is minimal.

 

 

August pressure for energy retailers, covering subsidies

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Electricity and gas retailers fear even tougher financial times in August as the government’s increasing levels of energy subsidy support offered to consumers to offset rising wholesale energy prices and keep energy bills serviceable will force suppliers to use greater amounts of company capital for the effort, company officials have told energypress.

Energy suppliers need to commit company capital for customer subsidies in accordance with subsidy support packages announced by the energy ministry before they are reimbursed about a month later via the Energy Transition Fund, once DAPEEP, the RES market operator, has cleared related amounts.

The one-month period elapsing from the time suppliers cover subsidies, at their own cost, to their eventual reimbursement is pushing suppliers to their financial limits.

It should be pointed out, energy suppliers have yet to be reimbursed for subsidies they paid for in June, concerning consumption in May.

New electricity market model launched, PPC role pivotal

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A new model for the country’s electricity market, intended to contain soaring prices brought about by the energy crisis, comes into effect today with the introduction, as a first step, of price caps in the wholesale market, setting remuneration upper limits for electricity producers of all categories.

A ministerial decision expected imminently, possibly today, will set upper limits of 112 euros per MWh for hydropower facilities, 85 euros per MWh for renewables, 253.98 euros per MWh for natural gas-fueled power stations and 206.71 euros per MWh for lignite-fired power stations. These limits will remain valid for the first one-month period, starting today.

Any discrepancy between these upper limits and the average price of the day-ahead market will be transferred to the Energy Transition Fund for subsidy support.

The government hopes its plan will subdue electricity prices to levels of between 20 and 30 percent higher than last summer.

Calculations for a finalized electricity price per KWh, following the deduction of subsidies, will be based on state-controlled power utility PPC’s new price list. The government, guided by the utility’s new price list, will set a single price for all suppliers. The level at which PPC will set the bar remains to be seen. The company’s market dominance will set a standard for the entire market.

Though not yet confirmed, it is believed PPC will announce, by July 10, a nominal price of between 460 and 490 euros per MWh, meaning 46-49 cents per KWh.

PPC and all other players are abandoning a 30 percent discount offered to customers. PPC’s subsidies for hydropower and lignite units will now end up with the State, which is assuming the discount-policy role.

Wholesale price clause suspension not instant relief

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The suspension of a wholesale electricity price clause included in power bills will not bring about instant price relief for consumers as suppliers are continuing to take on new costs that threaten to eliminate any prospective price reductions ahead of increased state subsidy support.

New regulations will require electricity suppliers to inform households and businesses on prices they will charge two months in advance. On July 10, when this pricing rule will be activated, suppliers will need to announce their price per KWh to be charged two months later, on September 10. On August 10, suppliers will need to do the same for their price on October 10, and so on.

Power utility PPC, the retail market’s dominant player, will play an influential role in market price levels. If the utility subdues prices levels, rival players will follow suit in an effort to their maintain market shares or possibly increase them.

Electricity consumers charged fixed tariffs – they represent a small percentage of the market – will, from now on, need to pay a penalty fee should they leave their supplier prior to the expiration of agreement.

Uncertainty will remain prevalent despite the new rules. At this stage, there is no model offering electricity price forecasts two month down the road, which is a problem given the market volatility. A single announcement by Russian president Vladimir Putin, or a European Commission package of sanctions against Russia, is enough to send natural gas prices flying and, as a result, lead to sharp wholesale electricity price increases.

 

Wholesale price adjustment clause set for suspension

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The government is moving ahead with a plan to suspend a wholesale price-related adjustment clause included in electricity bills, to follow the ratification of a RES draft bill that includes an order for temporary implementation of a mechanism  enabling partial returns of day-ahead market earnings through a wholesale electricity market cap.

According to energypress sources, energy minister Kostas Skrekas appears to have accepted a RAE proposal calling for the suspension, as of July 1, of a wholesale price adjustment clause included in electricity bills.

The energy minister is expected to suspend the clause for a total of 11 months, from July 1 to June 1, 2023, through an energy supply code revision.

Electricity prices for consumers will be controlled through a combination of wholesale market intervention (caps on producer earnings) and subsidy support.

According to the plan, electricity suppliers, as of July 1, will have the choice of offering three types of tariffs: fixed; flexible with upper and lower limits; and flexible without upper and lower limits.

Brussels approves wholesale price formula, producer caps

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A government package containing a new formula for the country’s wholesale electricity price along with caps for each of the four electricity generating technologies (hydropower, renewables, gas and lignite) has been approved by the European Commission, paving the way towards its implementation as of July 1, sources have informed energypress.

Once a related draft bill, submitted to parliament last Friday, is ratified, a ministerial decision detailing the price caps per technology will be published at the end of this week or early next week. It is eagerly awaited by market participants.

According to sources, the cap on hydropower facilities is expected to be set relatively higher than initially thought, at 110 euros per MWh, well over the initial expectation of between 80 to 90 euros per MWh.

The price cap on renewables is expected to be set at 85 euros per MWh. Natural gas-fueled power stations are seen taking on a cap of between 230 and 240 euros per MWh.

Power utility PPC’s lignite-fired power stations will be set a cap of no less than 200 euros per MWh.

The mechanism’s operation will be assumed by EnExClear, the day-ahead market’s clearing authority, which will report, on a daily basis, to RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, and DAPEEP, the RES market operator.

Ministry to suspend wholesale adjustment clauses in bills

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The government appears determined to push through with an energy ministry decision suspending wholesale electricity price adjustment clauses included in retail electricity bills as of July 1 and for as long as measures – in both markets – are deemed necessary.

Even so, details of the plan remain unclear. The government aims to implement a new electricity price-adjusting mechanism on July 1. Its fundamentals involve setting a remuneration cap for electricity producers and reducing wholesale electricity price levels for suppliers.

There has been confusion as to whether the government will suspend or cancel existing wholesale electricity price adjustment clauses.

In comments to energypress, leading energy ministry officials supported that energy minister Kostas Skrekas plans to deliver a draft bill suspending wholesale electricity price adjustment clauses, while also introducing a wholesale price-cap mechanism.

These measures, however, will not necessarily keep tariffs steady. On the contrary, suppliers will, after informing customers, be able to adjust kilowatt hour prices based on their wholesale electricity purchase costs, it is understood.

 

Four electricity price-reducing scenarios, EU decision pivotal

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The government is considering four alternatives for its strategy to reduce electricity bill costs, but any decisions will be delayed until the European Commission has reached decisions at an EU level next month.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has noted measures will be taken in Greece if the EU does not implement a price ceiling on natural gas at the Dutch TTF exchange.

Though the government is aiming for a drastic reduction in electricity costs, to levels as low as pre-crisis prices, the measures to be implemented will need to take into account the country’s fiscal ability.

One of the four price-reducing strategies being looked at entails setting a maximum payment price, per MWh, for electricity producers, who would be compensated for any price differences through the budget.

Another measure involves setting different remuneration limits for the various electricity generation technologies (natural gas, lignite, renewables and hydropower).

A third consideration involves a combination of price ceilings and subsidies, while a fourth would significantly increase subsidies already being offered for electricity bills.

 

 

Gov’t plan aims for electricity prices at first-half ’21 average

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The government will pursue a strategic target aiming to reduce retail electricity prices to the average level recorded in the first half of 2021, through the implementation of a price ceiling in the wholesale electricity market and state compensation packages for electricity producers covering the price difference.

However, it remains unclear how this ambitious measure, worth at least 4 billion euros amid the current conditions, will be financed.

The government’s plan will be carried out in coordination with any proposals that may be announced by the European Commission.

Announcements, by the Greek government, are not expected before May 18, when Brussels could deliver energy-crisis proposals for member states.

The price of natural gas in coming weeks, an unknown factor, adds risk to the government’s support plan. Gas prices could further escalate if Russian president Vladimir Putin decides to disrupt supply; if Russia’s war in Ukraine intensifies; or if any other unfavorable factor comes into play.

At present, a best-case scenario would result in a price tag of at least 4 billion euros for the Greek government’s strategic plan to reduce electricity prices.

Three different financing sources could be considered: the Energy Transition Fund, currently financing monthly energy subsidies; a 900 million-euro surplus from a supplementary budget submitted to parliament a fortnight ago; and Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) money.

 

 

Government in frantic search of €3-4bn for crisis measures

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The government is frantically searching for solutions that would secure between 3 to 4 billion euros to compensate energy companies for planned price ceilings on wholesale energy prices.

Energy market conditions are adverse across the board. Consumers are struggling to meet costlier energy-bill payments, energy market companies and authorities fear an increase in unpaid receivables and its wider effects, while the government, seeing its approval rating fall by between half and one percentage point a month, is hoping for a European solution to the energy crisis, now exacerbated by Russia’s war on Ukraine.

A European solution to the energy crisis does not seem anywhere near. French president Emmanuel Macron is currently stranded by the French elections, while German chancellor Olaf Scholz appears undecided. For the time being, at least, the Greek government will need to seek a solution through the national budget.

Russian president Vladimir Putin is under no pressure to end his war on Ukraine and stop his energy-sector blackmailing of the EU as long as European energy payments for Russian gas, oil and coal, totaling 600 million dollars a day, keep flowing into Russia.

At this stage, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ proposal for a price ceiling at the TTF gas exchange appears to be the only promising solution, as this would strike at the root of the problem prompting exorbitant electricity prices around Europe.

RAE seeks to limit or abolish bilateral electricity contract restrictions

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RAE, the Regulatory Authority for Energy, is moving to limit, or even abolish, restrictions imposed on bilateral physical delivery contracts in Greece’s electricity market as a step towards further liberating the market for price de-escalation.

RAE, in a letter forwarded to the country’s energy exchange, has requested a study examining all scenarios that would further facilitate bilateral physical delivery contracts.

The energy exchange intends to have completed its study in three months so that RAE can proceed with related legislative initiatives.

The issue of whether bilateral contracts in Greece’s wholesale electricity market could contribute to a de-escalation of electricity prices in the retail market has preoccupied local authorities for quite some time.

In recent months, wholesale electricity market price increases in Greece have been almost fully passed on to the retail market, contravening the pattern of more mature European markets.

Ongoing war, new EU sanctions on Russia, spark price fears

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The ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as a fifth round of EU sanctions against invading Russia, have prompted further energy-shortage fears that could drive natural gas and electricity prices even higher.

A growing number of consumers struggling to cover energy bills are resorting to installment-based payment arrangements, up 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.

One major energy supplier received some 6,000 applications for installment-based payments in March, up from 4,500 in February.

Though the EU has found consensus on imposing sanctions against Russia, it has struggled to reach agreement on support measures for consumers and enterprises. A gap between the EU’s north and south continues to exist, each member state more or less left to seek solutions alone.

None of the south’s proposals, intended to ease the effects of the energy crisis, including a price ceiling on natural gas, and a detachment of gas prices from electricity prices, have yet to be adopted. Instead, decisions have been postponed until May. Decisions could ultimately be shaped by the degree of pressure felt by the north.

The EU’s fifth round of sanctions on Russia, announced yesterday, include a ban on coal imports from Russia, worth four billion euros annually; a total ban of banking transactions with four main Russian banks; as well as export bans for products required by Russia, such as semiconductors. The USA has also increased its pressure on Russia.

Wholesale electricity prices in Greece may be 30 percent lower than a peak of 427 euros per MWh registered in early March, but levels of between 280 and 330 euros per MWh registered in recent days are equivalent to those of November and December.

Even if the war were to end now, the good scenario for energy prices would still be bad. Natural gas prices would remain at levels of between 50 and 60 euros per MWh throughout 2022, compared to yesterday’s level of 106 euros per MWh, for a wholesale electricity price of 160 euros per MWh, up 160 percent compared to last year and 130 percent over 2019 levels.

As for the worst-case scenario, maintenance of natural gas price levels at the present level of 100 euros per MWh would result in wholesale electricity prices of 255 euros per MWh, meaning between 130 and 150 euros in monthly electricity bills for average households, not including subsidies.

 

Europe on edge, tested by Putin’s ruble payment demand

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Tension in Europe has risen with signs of disorientation emerging over Russian president Vladimir Putin’s demand for ruble-currency payments to cover Russian natural gas supply.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to Moscow, initially agreed on this payment term for Russian gas supply, but this was swiftly denied by the chancellery.

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi abruptly rejected Putin’s ruble-based payment plan for Russian gas supply, while Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called on Europe to impose an embargo on Moscow and follow his country’s example by stopping all Russian energy imports until the end of the year.

Europe is on high alert. Reliance on Russian energy reaches as high as 80 percent in Austria. Germany’s dependence on Russian energy is also high, at 55 percent.

Both countries have taken steps for gas rationing over the payment stand-off with Russia, fearing, like all of Europe, a halt in energy deliveries from Russia because of the dispute over payments.

Robert Habeck, Germany’s federal minister for economic affairs and climate action, has called on citizens to use electricity as moderately as possible.

Should Putin take the dreaded step and cut energy supply to Europe, distribution of existing natural gas reserves, as well as supply from non-Russian sources, will need to be prioritized, with preference for hospitals, power stations and crucial industries, needed to avoid economic collapse.

If European governments are forced to announce a state of emergency, an electricity rationing plan will need to be implemented for all households. The UK was forced to adopt such an extreme measure, for fuel, during the oil crisis in 1973.

In Greece, a halt in Russian natural gas supply would stop economic activity in just a few days. The country’s daily gas consumption reaches approximately 200,000 MWh, of which 115,000 MWh is supplied by Russia.

Additional LNG shipments in April; the mooring of an FSRU at the Revythoussa islet LNG terminal, just off Athens, for a capacity increase; full-capacity generation at the country’s lignite-fired power stations; as well as an agreement with Italy to ensure storage capacity at the neighboring country’s gas storage facilities, for strategic reserves, are all necessary steps ahead of next winter.

It remains to be seen if Russia’s war on Ukraine will carry on into summer and require extreme measures, or end soon, to the relief of all.

The TTF gas exchange ended trade yesterday at 118 euros per MWh. Wholesale electricity prices in Greece today are at 222.38 euros per MWh.

In comments offered during yesterday’s opening day of the two-day Power & Gas Forum staged by energypress, Pantelis Kapros, Professor of Energy Economics at the National Technical University of Athens, estimated that natural gas prices, even if the war were to end now, will average between 50 and 70 euros per MWh this year.

 

 

 

Nation’s power cost massive, even in best-case scenario

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Worth 1.1 billion euros, the government’s triple-dimensioned support package designed to help consumers deal with exorbitant energy prices is not negligible. The big question at this stage is how many more times will such support need to be offered to consumers in 2022?

Energy price projections are frightening as Russia’s war on Ukraine enters its fourth week. The political world will need to intervene and set market rules, as noted by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Smaller EU member states with less fiscal leeway, such as Greece, face serious danger should the European Commission not intervene and offer a central European solution.

If the situation unfolds favorably and the war ends soon, wholesale electricity prices could average 100 euros per MWh in 2022, well below today’s level of 240.32 euros per MWh, but nearly double Greece’s pre-crisis wholesale electricity average of 55 euros per MWh.

At a wholesale electricity price average of 100 euros per MWh in 2022, the country’s annual electricity consumption, totaling 55 TWh, would cost 5.5 billion euros.

This figure is 2.2 billion euros more than the 3 billion euros, or so, for Greece’s pre-crisis annual electricity cost, resulting from a wholesale electricity average of 55 euros per MWh.

To put this additional 2.2 billion-euro amount for electricity into perspective, it is just below the 2.58 billion euros collected by the state in 2021 through ENFIA property tax.

Smaller, bigger solar energy investors face differing prospects

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Smaller and major-scale solar energy investors face differing prospects amid RES investment opportunities offered by extremely higher wholesale electricity prices as these opportunities are being largely offset by higher equipment costs.

Sharply higher wholesale electricity prices have generated stronger investment opportunities for bigger RES investors, while, for smaller players, these prospects are being dampened by higher RES equipment costs, severely diminishing their more modest profit margins.

Demand for solar panels has surged around Europe in recent times, pushing up prices. The cost of solar panel mounting systems has also risen as a result of recent sanctions imposed on Russian steel exports, which have driven steel prices higher.

Solar panel prices had begun falling early in 2022 following a period of pandemic-related increases, but are now rising again with no price de-escalation seen in the short term, RES sector officials have projected.