Latest events prompt energy market turmoil ahead of winter

Last weekend’s outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war, undermining any attempt at peace in the Middle East and the process of normalizing Israel’s relations with the Arab countries, and, in addition, the suspected sabotage of the Baltic-connector gas pipeline, used by Finland and Estonia for access to an underground gas storage facility in Latvia, are two developments that have come at the worst possible time for European energy security and cost concerns, right before winter and following an EU decision to end energy crisis-related support measures for consumers all over Europe.

The two developments would have impacted energy markets any time of year, but their pre-winter emergence makes them even more critical. This is the time of year when demand for natural gas and oil increases in Europe, along with prices. In Greece, the heating oil trading season is set to begin October 13.

Markets around the continent have not been appeased by the fact that European storage facilities are 95 percent full, but instead, are being driven higher by the unease brought about by the latest events.

Besides the Israel-Gaza war, the Baltic-connector pipeline has just been shut down after a sudden drop in pressure, raising fears of Russian sabotage as retribution for Finland joining Nato in April this year.

The damage to this infrastructure has revived concerns about energy security following the Nord Stream pipeline blasts last year.

According to macroeconomic research consultancy Capital Economics, the combination of events could raise oil prices to levels well above 100 dollars a barrel for some time.

Wholesale natural gas prices rose 12.3 percent in a day, to just under 50 euros per MWh at the Dutch TTF hub.

The Greek government may need to reconsider its decision to end energy subsidies for all consumers. Supply companies may need to hedge prices and factor in the new risk factors. Also, refineries and gas importers may need to secure loads before prices escalate.

With Israel preparing for a ground attack on Gaza, it has become clear that decisions such as the choice of route for Israeli gas exports to Europe; promotion of Israel’s energy cooperation with Greece and Cyprus; and the development of projects such as the Israel-Cyprus-Greece electricity grid interconnection, are, for the time being, not a top priority.

 

Ukraine war adds to complexity of Greek-Albanian EEZ dispute in Ionian

An unresolved exclusive economic zone dispute between Greece and Albania over territorial rights in the Ionian Sea has become even more complicated as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine, a conflict that has turned the Ionian and Adriatic sea areas into a hotbed of confrontation between NATO and Russia.

According to a recent report published by Italian daily La Reppublica, numerous incidents, both minor and more intense, have taken place in the Adriatic and Ionian seas between the escorting forces of the US 6th Fleet aircraft carrier Harry Truman and Russian warships. At least one of these incidents took place off Corfu, military sources have informed.

The naval incidents in the region are a result of its increased strategic importance for NATO with regards to the war in Ukraine as well as military preparations for any possible spread of the conflict beyond Ukraine.

Greece and Albania, following an agreement between the two countries, have begun procedures to take their Ionian Sea EEZ dispute to the International Court of Justice in The Hague. The consequences of the Ukraine war add to the issue’s complexity.

Energean and ELPE (Hellenic Petroleum), both holders of licenses in the Ionian Sea, are working to explore the region’s hydrocarbon prospects.

Athens, Europe’s south hoping for brave crisis decisions

Athens, along with other EU administrations, especially in Europe’s south, will be hoping for a brave European response to the energy crisis’ exorbitant prices at this week’s summit of EU leaders, scheduled for March 24 and 25.

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has joined forces with his counterparts from Italy, Spain and Portugal ahead of this week’s summit. The four leaders are hoping action, rather than just good intentions, as expressed by Europe’s north during an unofficial meeting a fortnight ago, will be taken.

That session highlighted a lack of agreement on the issue of a Eurobond as a common solution to help consumers in Europe cope with extremely higher energy prices.

Some analysts believe long negotiations could be needed at the forthcoming summit, as was the case in 2020, when European leaders worked for five days to eventually approve the Recovery and Resilience Facility as a means of helping economies bounce back from the impact of the pandemic.

Other analysts fear US president Joe Biden’s participation in the concurrent EU-NATO conference will overshadow talks for energy market intervention, postponing needed action for a next session.

 

 

Greece supporting energy projects ahead of FYROM vote

Energy minister Giorgos Stathakis will head a Greek delegation of key energy-sector figures on a visit to the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) for energy investment talks with FYROM government officials on September 24 and 25.

The visit has been timed just days ahead of the neighboring country’s September 30 referendum asking voters if they support EU and NATO membership by accepting a recent agreement between their country and Greece over a new name for FYROM, the Republic of Northern Macedonia, to be used for both domestic and international purposes.

The name dispute, 27 years long, has kept the smaller and younger country out of international institutions.

The two sides have not ruled out the signing – during the two-day visit – of Memorandums of Cooperation for energy projects that would provide energy security to the neighboring country and highlight Greece’s prospective role as an energy hub.

Representatives of Greek natural gas grid operator DESFA, Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE) and power grid operator IPTO will join Stathakis, the energy minister, on the visit, also seen as an attempt by Greece to encourage a “yes” vote in the referendum.