Market analysts expect ELPE 50.1% sale to reach over €2bn

Market analysts, including HSBC, in a new report, expect the ELPE group (Hellenic Petroleum) sale offering a 50.1 percent stake to exceed 2 billion euros.

Besides the privatization’s higher aspirations generated by ELPE’s strong profit figures, including a streak of records, international analysts are also pointing to excellent prospects for the petroleum group over the next two years, at least, as well as its limited exposure to mazut.

ELPE’s share ended trading last Friday at 7.57 euros but the petroleum group’s privatization may escalate its share price by 50 percent to 11.7 euros, according to the recent HSBC report, covering refineries in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA).

Given a share price of 11.7 euros, a 50.1 percent stake of ELPE would be worth 1.78 billion euros. Adding a 20 percent premium to this figure for the petroleum firm’s management rights also offered in the sale increases the value to 2.1 billion euros.

ELPE, it should also be noted, is one of the wider region’s few refineries which, with a minimal amount of facility adjustments, will be capable of producing new environmentally friendly shipping fuels by 2020. This prospect, promising even higher profit levels at ELPE in the near future, is seen adding to the petroleum group’s appeal among investors.

According to latest developments, buyers will be asked to submit binding offers within the first quarter of 2019.

Two new participants, US firm Carlyle and Algeria’s Sonatrach, are believed to be discussing respective partnerships with the privatization’s list of two existing candidates, Switzerland’s Glencore and Dutch company Vitol. No official announcements have been made on the rumored Glencore-Carlyle and Vitol-Sonatrach pairings.

TAIPED, the privatization fund, has yet to set a deadline for new partnerships.