New fuel tax increases set to be introduced, beginning with heating fuel as of October 15, will severely undermine the Greek economy’s growth potential as well as tax revenues, according to IOBE, the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research, in a study officially released today.
The tax revenue shortage will be caused by a further dampening of market demand as a result of the fuel tax hikes, the IOBE study notes. Besides heating fuel, tax increases on gasoline, diesel and LNG will follow as of January 1.
The government hopes this latest round of fuel tax hikes can rake in a further 400 million euros by the end of 2017.
The fuel tax hikes are made harsher by the current rebound seen in international crude oil prices, which have risen from 46 dollars to 51 dollars a barrel over the past couple of weeks, prompted by a late-September OPEC agreement for a freeze of daily output levels as of November.
Assuming no major price fluctuations take place over the next few days in crude oil and the euro-dollar exchange rate, heating oil is expected to hit the Greek market at 92 cents per liter, up 8 percent from last year’s level of 84 to 85 cents per liter registered during the equivalent period.
This heating fuel price rise is the result of a higher special consumption tax (EFK) rate, from 23 cents to 28 cents per liter, a VAT increase on fuel from 23 percent to 24 percent, as well as refinery price increases.
Concerns over the financial standing of Deutsche Bank are applying pressure on the euro currency against the dollar.
Besides the IOBE study, Eurostat and Greek finance ministry figures also highlight the negative impact of fuel tax hikes on demand levels. Since 2009, when fuel tax hikes began rising in recession-struck Greece, fuel demand has fallen by at least 39 percent, severely affecting tax revenues.
The IOBE study also warns that illicit fuel trade will be encouraged as a result of the tax hike and inability by officials to fully enforce an “inflow-outflow” data monitoring system that would enable the Finance Ministry to track purchases and sales in the sector.